Trump's Cabinet moves hand Ron DeSantis a gift — but possibly with strings attached

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will have a chance to put another stamp on state politics with a big appointment if Sen. Marco Rubio becomes secretary of state. But one major question hangs over that opportunity: How badly does President-elect Donald Trump want his daughter-in-law, Lara, to become a U.S. senator?

DeSantis, like any Florida governor, has the ability to unilaterally appoint the person who would fill a vacant Senate seat, which may come into play following Monday's news of Trump's expected nomination of Rubio to lead the State Department. Trump could still change his mind, cautioned three sources familiar with the selection process, who said the decision wouldn't be final until the president-elect makes a formal announcement.

But if Rubio's Senate seat becomes open, there is little doubt DeSantis will face at least some pressure from Trump’s team to appoint a candidate they want, which would almost certainly be Lara Trump, according to seven people tracking deliberations around the potential vacancy.

DeSantis does not have to listen to Trump, after the two men saw their relationship fray amid DeSantis' national rise and his failed 2024 presidential campaign. But the president-elect carried Florida by nearly 13 points this year, giving Trump a shot of political capital and at least the perception of leverage.

“I think that pick makes a lot of sense and would be great for Florida,” said a Trump ally who acknowledged there is interest from Trump world in seeing DeSantis appoint Lara Trump. “He had a great night last Tuesday. He won by huge margins, including in Florida. I think it’s pretty clear the move would not be controversial with Florida Republicans.”

But Trump's wishes are far from the only consideration when it comes to a Senate seat that hasn't been open in 14 years. Another route getting significant attention, according to five sources NBC News spoke with, would be the so-called placeholder strategy.

Under that scenario, DeSantis would likely appoint James Uthmeier, his longtime chief of staff and top political adviser who also did legal work for Trump's first campaign and advised former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. Uthmeier would then not run when the seat came up for a special election in 2026 to fill the remaining two years of Rubio's term — giving DeSantis an open Senate seat to run for ahead of a likely second campaign for president in 2028.

"I think the James option is very much open. If DeSantis wanted to run for the seat, James would get out of the way, and if he did not, a trusted DeSantis ally would run for re-election," a longtime DeSantis adviser said. "DeSantis controls the outcome either way."

How the appointment process plays out would depend on whether the nascent push for Lara Trump by some figures turns into a harder lobbying effort from Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s political home base — and then how DeSantis reacts to that pressure, if it materializes.

“Are they going to be able to alpha dog him?” the same source said of DeSantis.

DeSantis' team is aware of the dynamic.

"I have heard that too," a DeSantis ally said of Lara Trump getting in the mix for the Senate appointment. "But also have heard from someone very high up that there is some dissension on whether that's a good idea."

There's another possibility, though it's an increasingly unlikely move: DeSantis would be allowed to appoint himself, a scenario that first presented itself over the summer when Trump was considering Rubio as a potential running mate.

Two DeSantis advisers told NBC News that it is very unlikely DeSantis would appoint himself, even though the option remains open.

Others on the list of potential appointments include Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez, state Attorney General Ashley Moody, state House Speaker Paul Renner, former state House Speaker Jose Oliva and Rep. Laurel Lee, R-Fla., who was the first member of Congress to endorse DeSantis’ presidential run, which was considered controversial because most of Florida’s Republican congressional delegation backed Trump.

“I think there are some scenarios more likely than others,” a DeSantis ally said, signaling the placeholder strategy is likely. “But no matter what direction the governor takes, there is a lot of talent available for the pick.”

DeSantis' rough relationship with Trump was one reason his pick of Rubio for secretary of state surprised many Florida political watchers.

DeSantis and Trump were close when the then-president propelled DeSantis’ once long-shot bid for governor in 2018, but there was a nasty falling out between the two as it became clear DeSantis would run against Trump in 2024. Another complicating factor: After that 2018 election, DeSantis fired his campaign manager, Susie Wiles, who has since become a mainstay in Trump’s political operation and will serve as his chief of staff.

Wiles and DeSantis still have bad blood, which left some to posit she did not hand him a Senate appointment without a plan.

“My sense is they have a plan for the Florida angle,” said a longtime Florida operative familiar with the Trump team's decision-making process. “The last thing [Trump’s team] wants is to hand Ron an opportunity to really shuffle things around and create some sustained power for his crew, so I’ve got to believe they will push hard if Ron is resistant.”

Because Trump has no ability to force DeSantis’ hand, the “push hard” portion of things could come in the form of Trump’s huge right-wing social media and podcast ecosystem, which has helped make or break Republican political careers in the past. Most recently, this loose coalition has been trying to push Sen. Rick Scott of Florida over the finish line in his effort to become Senate majority leader, according to multiple media reports.

“I am actually going to make a public call for Gov. DeSantis to appoint Lara Trump to fill Marco Rubio’s term in office,” Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida, an early Trump backer, told Benny Johnson, a prominent Trump supporter with more than 3 million followers on X. “She would avoid a really nasty primary in two years.”

“I’m giving her my full backing,” she continued of Lara Trump, who is a North Carolina resident. “I’m giving her my full backing.”

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com