‘A lot closer than people expected’: GOP worries, Dem cash dominate tense Florida special election

Randy Fine has leaned into President Donald Trump’s endorsement to try to win a congressional special election in Florida. But it’s the Republican state senator’s progressive opponent who has used Trump’s name to amass an eight-figure war chest against him.

The Democratic candidate, math teacher Josh Weil, reported raising more than $10 million for the April 1 race in a deep-red area of the state that went for Trump by more than 30 points. Fine, in contrast, has raised less than $1 million.

“Seems like it’s going to be a lot closer than people expected,” said state Sen. Joe Gruters (R-Sarasota), Fine’s Tallahassee roommate and closest friend at the state Capitol. He predicted Democrats would likely end up spending upwards of $15 million on the race.

Since early voting began Saturday, turnout was surprisingly close between the two parties, though Republicans began to edge up in numbers on Tuesday, according to Decision Desk HQ data. Gruters and other Republicans projected confidence that Fine will win, but the disparity in fundraising has the GOP sending reinforcements during the closing days of the campaign.

Trump has restated his support for Fine on Truth Social, and the Republican Party of Florida jumped in to help the campaign pay for TV ad time, with data from AdImpact showing almost $1 million in ad spending from March 18 to election day. Vic Baker, committeeman for the Volusia County GOP, said Florida Young Republicans were mobilizing to knock on doors over the weekend.

“We have got a little job on our hands with this congressional race,” he acknowledged, noting that every special election is a challenge given the lack of attention from voters compared to what regularly scheduled elections receive.

"We are annoyed but not worried," added one national GOP strategist following the race, granted anonymity to speak candidly. "Annoyed Fine hasn't done jack shit for himself and is counting on the ecosystem to bail him out."

A review of Federal Election Commission data shows most donations to the Weil campaign are coming from outside Florida. Democrats have urged supporters to back House candidates that might further narrow Republicans’ tiny House majority. Weil said targeted texts and emails, as well as ads through Facebook and Instagram, were the biggest factors helping him rake in cash.

“This is an opportunity for us to get in front of Trump's Project 2025 agenda,” Weil said, referring to the recommendations from a conservative outside group that Trump disavowed during his campaign while later adopting certain policies.

“Ninety-nine percent of the country doesn’t get a vote on this,” he added, “but they want to be actively involved. They want to have a say. And so they’re speaking with their money.”

The Democratic National Committee also said it’s sending in more resources, but hasn’t specified how much — and the figure won’t be accessible through campaign finance reports until after the election. Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said the state party is “providing volunteer coordination, voter protection and grassroots organizing support.”

“We have already knocked on 750,000 doors, made 1.4 million calls, and sent 350,000 texts, but there is still more work to do before Election Day,” she said, promising to “chase down every last vote.”

Republicans have dismissed Weil as an unserious and “radical” candidate, and frequently raise an incident during which he improperly restrained a student who accused him of choking him a decade ago. (Weil has said he was cleared of wrongdoing.) Fine’s allies, like Lake County GOP Chair and state Rep. Taylor Yarkosky, contend Democrats are “grasping for a win wherever they can find one.”

“If the Republicans were behind in the House — as the Democrats are now — and the national party decided that they were going to go after those seats, you would see the same kind of money come in,” said Flagler County GOP Chair Perry Mitrano.

Fine, who embraces the nickname “Hebrew Hammer” from Gruters, is well-known throughout the state as the sponsor of multiple pieces of high-profile legislation, including the push to dissolve Walt Disney World’s special tax district and the effort to ban critical race theory from public schools. He also notoriously turned on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis during the 2024 GOP primary, flipping his endorsement from DeSantis to Trump and saying the governor hadn’t done enough to address antisemitism after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

The 6th District is rather famous in the Sunshine State. It’s the same place DeSantis started out his political career as a congressman, representing slightly different boundaries before redistricting. Its former representative is Mike Waltz, who left the seat to become Trump’s national security adviser and is currently facing a firestorm after accidentally adding a journalist to a messaging thread with top national security officials.

Fine, who lives outside the district but will be moving in, got Trump’s endorsement before he entered the GOP primary. He has run on being a “soldier on the battlefield” for Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson.

During a Monday interview, he expressed confidence about his chances, pointing to huge majorities for Republican voters in the district and calling it “gross” for Weil to bring in celebrity endorsements. Fine derided his opponent’s campaign as a “bonanza for consultants,” given the significant portion of fundraising that has been spent on that purpose and tens of thousands of dollars spent on Airbnb, including a single transaction of more than $51,000.

“It’s going fine,” he said of his own campaign. “I wish the Democrats weren’t lighting $10 million on fire.”

Gruters insisted the race wasn’t about Fine, but about Trump. “Act Blue and Democrats have done a much better job at trying to rally people around small-dollar donations and have that kind of impact,” he said, referring to the online donation platform for Democrats. “I still think Randy is going to win, but they certainly are giving him a good fight.”

DeSantis, however, disagreed with that assessment during a stop in Palm Bay on Tuesday, indicating his distaste for Fine had not abated since their dispute during the presidential primary. He called it a “liberal media” slant to say the race was close because voters viewed it as a referendum on Trump.

“It’s a candidate-specific issue,” DeSantis said. “I think the district is so overwhelmingly Republican that there’s literally — it’s almost impossible for somebody with an ‘R’ by their name to lose that district. I would anticipate a Republican candidate is still going to be successful. Do I think they’ll be able to get even close to the margins that I received or President Trump received? No. Is that a reflection on the president? Absolutely not. It’s a reflection of the candidate running in that race.”

(Despite the clash, Fine campaign spokesperson Bryan Piligra noted DeSantis deployed his team to help with the race Monday.)

As Fine nears the closing days of his congressional run, he has been splitting his time between campaigning and his state Senate work, given that the Florida Legislature is in session. During a hearing Tuesday, a person who got up to testify dug at Fine’s campaign upon reaching the lectern.

"Excited to see you go, Chairman Fine,” said Cameron Driggers from Youth Action Fund. “And good luck at your congressional race — it looks like you're gonna need it.”

"I'm not too worried,” Fine shot back.

Gary Fineout, Ally Mutnick and Isa Domínguez contributed to this report.