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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Hawaii’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — An ongoing corruption scandal involving Hawaii's lieutenant governor looms over Saturday's state primary as nine candidates jockey to replace her. Meanwhile, a longtime Democratic congressman who bucked his party and supported one of President Donald Trump's top legislative priorities faces a tough primary challenge.

Five Democrats and four Republicans are seeking their parties' nominations to succeed embattled Democratic Hawaii Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke, who pleaded not guilty in July to bribery charges stemming from her 2022 campaign when she was a state lawmaker.

Hawaii's lieutenant governorship has long been a steppingstone to higher office in the state. Democratic Gov. Josh Green and Democratic U.S. Sens. Mazie Hirono and Brian Schatz all served as lieutenant governor. The governor and lieutenant governor are elected individually and do not run on the same ticket.

The Democratic field includes Kauai County Mayor Derek Kawakami, state Rep. Della Au Belatti and former state Deputy Attorney General John Choi. Kawakami has led in fundraising. He also has the backing of a political action committee tied to the carpenters union that has spent roughly $2 million on his behalf, according to state campaign finance records.

Republican Daniel Anthony was the top spender among his primary opponents for the first few weeks of July, but at about $6,900, it was a fraction of spending by the leading Democratic candidates.

Luke has been on an unpaid leave of absence since April. Green named state official Keith Regan as acting lieutenant governor. Regan isn't running for a full term.

Green is seeking reelection as governor. He faces three Democratic primary challengers. Republicans have a two-way primary.

In the 1st Congressional District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Ed Case seeks a seventh full term but first must overcome four primary challengers, including state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole.

Keohokalole has criticized Case for crossing party lines in April 2025 to support Trump's signature election legislation, known as the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or the SAVE Act. The Republican president's legislation would, among other things, require voters to prove their U.S. citizenship when registering for federal elections.

Case has said, including in a recent Hawaii Public Radio interview, that the version of the SAVE Act he voted for provided accommodations for voters who don't present the required documentation, including signing a written attestation of their citizenship. He has voted against subsequent versions of the bill that didn't provide those accommodations.

Case and Keohokalole were evenly matched in terms of campaign fundraising and spending, although Case had a sizable advantage in terms of cash in the bank heading into the campaign's final stretch.

The winner will face Republican Adriel Lam, who is unopposed in the primary.

Hawaii's 1st Congressional District is heavily Democratic. Case won reelection in 2024 with about 72% of the vote. Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris received about 62% of the district vote in the presidential election against Trump.

About half of Hawaii's 25 state Senate seats and all 51 state House seats are up in 2026. Democrats hold overwhelming majorities in both chambers.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 1 a.m. ET Sunday.

What's on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for governor, lieutenant governor, U.S. House, state Senate and state House.

Who gets to vote?

Any registered voter in Hawaii may participate in any party's primary.

How many voters are there?

As of the November 2024 general election, there were about 861,000 registered voters in Hawaii.

How many people actually vote?

About 195,000 voters cast ballots in the 2024 Democratic U.S. Senate primary and about 54,000 in the Republican primary. Turnout was higher in the 2022 primaries for governor. About 251,000 Democratic primary voters and about 76,000 Republican primary voters cast ballots that year.

About 91,000 voters cast ballots in the 1st Congressional District Democratic primary in 2024.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

Hawaii conducts its elections primarily by mail. Ballots are mailed to all registered voters. Less than 2% of 2024 state primary voters cast their ballots in person.

As of Tuesday, about 179,000 ballots had already been cast in Saturday's election.

When are early and absentee votes released?

All four counties in Hawaii tend to release most of their results from early in-person and mail voting in their first vote updates of the night, before any in-person Election Day votes are released. Almost all results are released by the final election night vote update.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

Hawaii typically has three vote updates after polls close: the first at roughly 1:30 a.m. ET, the second at roughly 4:30 a.m. ET, and the third and final in the early hours of the Monday following the election.

In the 2024 state primary, the AP first reported results at 1:22 a.m. ET, or 22 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 4:48 a.m. ET, with about 92% of total votes counted.

In the 2022 state primary, the first results were available at 1:58 a.m. ET, and the last election night update was at 4:45 a.m. ET, with about 86% of total votes counted.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it's determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

How do recounts work?

Recounts in Hawaii are automatic if the vote margin is 100 votes or less, or 0.25% of the total votes cast for a contest, whichever is smaller. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.