AP-NORC poll finds skepticism of nationwide election tallies, especially among Republicans

WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation's deep partisan divisions extend to trust in the vote tallies for this year's election, as a new poll finds that Republicans are much more skeptical than Democrats that ballots will be counted accurately.

Voters generally show more distrust toward nationwide voting results compared to the tallies done by their own local election offices, according to the survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

About half of Republican registered voters have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of trust that the vote will be accurately counted by their local election officials and around 4 in 10 say the same about the vote count in their state, but only around one-quarter have at least “quite a bit” of trust in the nationwide count.

Republicans voters' overall level of trust in all three, however, is lower than it is among Democratic voters. Roughly three-quarters of Democrats say they have at least “quite a bit” of confidence that votes will be counted accurately nationwide, in their state or by their local election officials.

This year’s election marks the first presidential race since former President Donald Trump began a campaign of lies about a stolen 2020 election — a narrative that has undermined public confidence in election results among a wide swath of conservative voters, despite no evidence of widespread fraud.

Election experts have warned that Trump may be laying the groundwork to once again challenge the election if he loses.

David Farrington, a 78-year-old conservative in Fort Worth, Texas, said he distrusts mail-in ballots and ballot drop boxes, both common targets for claims of voter fraud and election conspiracies attempting to sow distrust in election results.

“It’s not the vote count that I’m worried about," Farrington said. “I have every faith in all the precincts and their ability to count the ballots that are there. But the ballots — we don’t know if they’re legitimate or not.”

Conversely, Ruth Edwards, a 28-year-old kindergarten teacher in Tampa, Florida, said she has “never seen evidence that elections are rigged.”

“It’s just people who are upset about their candidate losing who are now claiming it’s rigged with no evidence,” said Edwards, a Democrat. “It’s ridiculous.”

Voters overall are more likely to believe that votes in the 2024 presidential election will be counted accurately by their local election officials or in their state than nationwide, according to the poll. About 6 in 10 voters have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence that votes in the 2024 presidential election will be counted accurately by their local election officials or in their state, while about half say this about votes counted nationwide.

About one-quarter in each case have “a moderate amount” of confidence. About 3 in 10 say they have “only a little” or no confidence in the nationwide count, while fewer say that about the tally in their state or by local officials.

Drew Inman, a 31-year-old Republican working in law enforcement in New Jersey, said he is skeptical that votes will be counted accurately at all levels, but especially in counties outside his own.

“I definitely trust my vote to be counted at a local level more than I trust the national vote count," he said. "... When you go national, there’s a lot more people involved and that can create corruption.”

While ballots can include races for federal offices such as president or Congress, the U.S. does not run national elections as other countries do. All elections are run by the states and administered by local election offices in thousands of townships, cities and counties.

Election officials have recognized that many skeptical voters tend to point to other jurisdictions with false claims of fraud. Some groups have tried to counter this perception by emphasizing that elections in every state are run at the local level.

“What is difficult is when we have national elections, oftentimes people will maybe throw election professionals under the bus from another state, and that is not helpful,” said Tammy Patrick, a former election official now with the National Association of Election Officials.

Older voters have more faith in the vote count at all levels than younger voters, including the count conducted by local election officials. About half of 18- to 29-year-old voters have at least “quite a bit” of confidence that votes will be counted accurately in their state or by their local election officials, compared to around 7 in 10 voters ages 60 and older.

The gap is smaller for the nationwide vote count, though: About 4 in 10 18- to 29-year-old voters have at least “quite a bit” of confidence, compared to about half of voters ages 60 and older.

Bill Sanchez, a 29-year-old criminal defense attorney in Monroe County, Pennsylvania, said older voters have been watching and participating in the election process for longer, giving them more time to build trust.

“Younger voters have less experience voting and have spent a lot of their lives surrounded by this kind of misinformation that we’re seeing more and more of,” Sanchez said. "... It just sets the base for younger voters to be more distrustful.”

About 6 in 10 Republicans say people voting who are not eligible is a major problem in U.S. elections, compared to 2 in 10 Democrats. Democrats and Republicans differ most sharply over whether mail ballots that are returned via the U.S. Postal Service or a drop box will be counted accurately. About 6 in 10 Democrats are “extremely” or “very confident” that mail ballots that are returned by these methods will be counted accurately, compared to around 1 in 10 Republicans.

Democrats, meanwhile, are much more concerned about voter suppression than Republicans. About half of Democrats say voter suppression is a major problem, compared to about one-third of Republicans

And about 4 in 10 voters are concerned about other countries tampering with U.S. voting systems or election results, which is down slightly from when the question was last asked in February 2020. This is something that independent voters are at least slightly more likely to be worried about than Democrats or Republicans.

Sanchez, the attorney from Pennsylvania, said he is more concerned about voter suppression than widespread fraud or ballots being miscounted and called for the expansion of early voting and mail ballots to “make voting as accessible as possible.” He also worries about the potential that false claims of voter fraud could incite violence and unrest, and said he hopes election officials' attempts to inform voters ahead of the election will help.

“There’s a lot of misinformation and disinformation about election security from bad faith actors who are trying to build distrust and take advantage of the fact that people don’t always understand everything about the process," Sanchez said. "And when we don’t understand things, we end up fearing it."

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Fernando reported from Chicago. Associated Press writer Christina A. Cassidy in Atlanta contributed to this report.

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The poll of 1,072 adults was conducted Oct. 11-14, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

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