Black Friday arrives with solid momentum despite tariffs and economic uncertainty

NEW YORK (AP) — Black Friday may no longer be the retail bacchanalia of years past, when the promise of one-time bargains caused people to leave Thanksgiving tables for malls where some customers got into fistfights over toys or TVs. But the event still has enough enthusiasts to make it the biggest shopping day in the U.S.

For that reason, the day retains its crown as the official start of the holiday shopping season. This year's kickoff comes as companies navigate an uncertain economic environment and wrestle with the volatility of President Donald Trump 's wide-ranging tariffs on imported goods.

Many have absorbed some of the costs and pulled back on hiring instead of raising prices for customers. Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy fell this month to the lowest since April — when Trump announced his tariffs — in the aftermath of the government shutdown, weak hiring and stubborn inflation, according to a report The Conference Board issued Tuesday.

Shoppers nonetheless have remained resilient and willing to spend, at least judging by the solid quarterly sales reports from Walmart, Best Buy and other retailers. But many retail executives also say customers are focusing on deals and have been selective in what they're buying.

Aron Boxer, 50, from Greenwich, Connecticut, said he delayed buying a car this year amid worries about tariffs. He said he'll be looking for deals on toys on Cyber Monday but is also willing to wait to the end for the best discount.

“The tariffs definitely are not behind me, and I am concerned about it," the founder of an educational services company and a life coaching service said. “I did consider buying earlier this year, but I feel like some people made some pretty bad business decisions anticipating tariffs to have a bigger impact than they did.”

Still, analysts and mall executives cited solid momentum heading into Black Friday week.

“We're seeing a very positive start to the holiday season," said Jill Renslow, chief business development and marketing officer at the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, which plans to give gift cards and other giveaways to the first 250 customers who show up at 7 a.m. on Friday. “The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong.”

Mall traffic heading into Black Friday surpassed the numbers from pre-pandemic 2019, Renslow said.

A forecast from the National Retail Federation, the nation's largest retail trade group, predicted a healthy increase in holiday sales. The group estimated that shoppers would collectively spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in November and December, or 3.7% to 4.2% more than last year.