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China's Emissions Have Been Trending Down for 18 Months

For 18 months, China’s carbon emissions have been flat or falling as solar and wind displace coal and electric vehicles supplant gas-powered cars. That is the finding of a new analysis, which comes as China takes center stage at the U.N. climate negotiations now underway in Brazil.

China, the world’s biggest emitter, has only previously seen its emissions drop during economic downturns, as during the coronavirus pandemic. This is the first time that the buildout of clean energy is largely driving the decline, experts say.

Emissions from the power sector stayed flat even as demand grew, while emissions from cars declined as drivers switched to electric cars, according to the new analysis from Carbon Brief. A recent downturn in construction is also blunting emissions from the production of steel and cement.

As wind and solar gain steam, the average coal plant is producing less power. The declining use of coal could “prompt a rethink” of plans to continue building out coal power plants, according to the analysis.

China is likely to see an overall drop in emissions in 2025, and if trends continue, it will hit “peak” emissions several years ahead of its target. Chinese leaders have committed to seeing emissions crest before 2030.

Declining emissions mean China “won’t need to be as defensive in international negotiations,” Lauri Myllyvirta, author of the new analysis, recently told Yale Environment 360. “I think that will translate into a much more constructive and solutions-oriented approach.”

China is already the biggest exporter of clean tech globally and a major backer of renewable energy projects beyond its borders. As the U.S. retreats from the fight to stem warming, China is set to become the driving force in climate diplomacy as well, Isabel Hilton writes in an analysis for Yale E60.

China “is staking its claim to leadership,” she says, “both as the steady and reliable partner in the global energy transition and the primary purveyor of the means to achieve it.”