3 weeks ago

Democrats Desperately Need An Upset In This Key Senate Race, And They Hope Kamala Harris Can Help

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate U.S. Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) greets attendees during the conclusion of a campaign rally at the Backyard on Broadway on Oct. 17, 2024, in San Antonio, Texas. With less than 20 days to go, incumbent opponent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) holds a 4-point advantage over Allred in a tightening race ahead of the Nov. 5 general election.

SAN ANTONIO – Margaret Kanyusik had been to several political events at Backyard on Broadway, a restaurant in this South Texas city before she came to see Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic nominee for Senate, address a few dozen supporters here last week for an event the campaign billed as a “huddle.”

“I have been to that place when it has been more crowded and more enthusiastic,” said Kanyusik, a retiree and volunteer for the League of Women Voters.

Democrats are hoping they can generate a bit more enthusiasm for Allred with substantially more ambitious plans for Friday in Houston: A rally alongside Vice President Kamala Harris and Beyoncé. The event, aimed at drawing attention to Texas’ draconian anti-abortion laws, will place Allred at the center of the political universe as it becomes increasingly clear he may be among Democrats’ best hopes at retaining control of the Senate.

Senate Majority PAC, which is controlled by allies of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, announced Thursday it would spend $5 million on television ads in the state, their first foray in the race between Allred and unpopular incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, who is being dragged down by both his infamous trip to Cancun during a 2021 snowstorm and his steadfast support for the strict anti-abortion laws Harris’ event is meant to highlight.

“In such an important election, Senate Majority PAC is determined to make sure Texans understand the choice facing them this November,” said JB Poersch, the group’s president. “That’s why we’re going on offense, so that in a few short months Texans can have a trusted, bipartisan senator in Colin Allred and can kick Cancún Cruz to the curb.”

Democratic internal polls have found Allred with small leads over Cruz, two sources who did not have permission to discuss the results said, though nonpartisan election forecasters still consider him a longshot – 538 gives him just an 18% chance of winning, while Split Ticket gives him a 27% chance. And the simple fact Democrats may need him to win a state where they have not triumphed in three decades to hold the Senate illustrates the party’s struggle with a body where white rural voters have massively disproportionate influence.

National Democrats continue to insist Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is within the margin of error in his race against Republican Tim Sheehey, though GOP super PACs are confident enough to move some money out of the race. While public polling continues to show Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) with a small lead, the GOP insists businessman Bernie Moreno now has an advantage.

(There’s also the possibility independent Dan Osborn pulls off an upset of GOP Sen. Deb Fischer in Nebraska, but it’s unclear how a win for Osborn – who has sworn off caucusing with either party – would impact Democrats’ hopes for a majority.)

Democrats need both Brown and then one of Tester or Allred to triumph to keep control of the Senate and to sweep a set of five swing-state races where public polling indicates they are in the lead.

Republicans have mostly scoffed at the idea that Allred is a true threat while acknowledging the race is closer than they would like. “It’s no surprise to see Colin Allred closing his campaign alongside disgraced border czar Kamala Harris given his record of 100% support for her agenda,” National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Phil Letsou said. “Allred and Harris will turn Texas into California if given the chance.”

Republicans have noted a key difference between Allred’s race and the 2018 contest, where then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke nearly ousted Cruz, eventually losing by just 3 percentage points. Then, O’Rourke had a massive spending advantage over the Republicans. But spending from both a Cruz-specific super PAC and the conservative Club for Growth has prevented Allred from creating a similar advantage, even as he’s managed to raise $11 million over the past 16 days, according to Federal Election Commission reports filed Thursday.

Democrats have also noted differences. Without second-guessing the Allred campaign’s strategy, Kanyusik recalled O’Rourke’s bid as far more energetic. She said O’Rourke personally visited her house, as well as the houses of several of her friends, because of their efforts to raise money for his Senate campaign, which crisscrossed the state to energize Democratic voters.

“I’m not dissing Allred, he’s running his own campaign, and the political climate is so different than it was even two years ago. He doesn’t have to do what Beto did, have to get down in the weeds with the kids and take the million photos and all that kind of stuff,” Kanyusik said. “It’s the way his campaign is run, and it’s just different.”

Of course, O’Rourke didn’t win, so a different strategy might be worth a try. Allred has sought to portray himself as a moderate willing to work with Republicans in an effort to win over moderate voters. He’s also focused intensely on abortion rights, which was the theme of his brief remarks at the Backyard on Broadway.

“We believe in freedom. You’re not free if you have to worry about, if you’re gonna start a family in this state, that if something goes wrong, that you may have to leave the state. This is not freedom,” Allred said.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the federal right to abortion in 2022, prompting Texas and other Republicans to ban the procedure, the issue of reproductive freedom has propelled Democrats to victories in special elections and helped stave off a “red wave” in midterm elections that year.

The issue is at the center of Friday’s rally, with the couple who led the lawsuit against Texas’ abortion bans, a woman who shared a heartbreaking story about losing her child and a military spouse worried about attacks on IVF all set to speak alongside Allred and Harris.

At the event with his supporters, Allred told the stories of women like Kate Cox who’ve been unable to receive abortions in Texas even when complications from wanted pregnancies threatened their health. He’ll likely say the same things on Friday.

“I’ve been in these rooms with my wife and the doctor,” Allred said. “They’re too small for Ted Cruz to be in there too. He called the fall of Roe a massive victory.”

Texas Majority PAC, a Democratic group founded in 2022 with funding from billionaire philanthropist George Soros and leadership from veterans of O’Rourke’s campaigns, has outlined an ambitious plan to turn the state blue by 2032. The group is essentially raising teams of experienced get-out-the-vote organizers with the ultimate goal of turning out a million more Democrats in future elections.

The organization said in an annual report this week that its volunteers have knocked on nearly a million doors this election cycle and talked to more than 125,000 registered Democrats who said they would vote in the upcoming election. The group’s key goals next month are winning a handful of races in Congress and the Texas legislature, describing it worthwhile to boost Allred’s margins even if victory is out of reach.

“It is still harder to win in Texas as a Democrat than a Republican,” Katherine Fischer, TMP’s director, said in an interview. “But we’re operating under a more favorable set of conditions now than we were expecting, even a few months ago. So I don’t think it’s impossible. I still think it’s very challenging.”

The Cruz campaign, meanwhile, seemed pleased that Allred would share a stage with Harris on Friday. Allred has distanced himself from the top of the ticket, while Cruz has made “Colin Allred is Kamala Harris” a stock phrase.

“Colin and Kamala share an agenda,” a Cruz spokesperson said, “and now they’ll share a stage for all Texans to see.”