Democrats eye Trump country for a special election surprise

Democrats’ sweeping victories last week have the party eyeing gains in even Trumpier territory, where voters in a deep-red Tennessee House seat will soon pick their next member of Congress in a special election.

Early voting started Wednesday in Tennessee's 7th District, a geographically expansive seat that reaches the state’s borders with Kentucky and Alabama and includes swaths of Nashville, to replace retired GOP Rep. Mark Green. And Democrats are projecting some optimism in a district President Donald Trump carried by more than 20 points last November.

“It really feels like there’s so much momentum on the ground,” Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn said in an interview. “The national attention is on this race and on Tennessee.”

Recent internal polling from Democrats has Behn within 8 to 10 points of her Republican opponent Matt Van Epps, which she said places her in “striking distance.” DNC Chair Ken Martin also traveled to the state last weekend to campaign for Behn.

A seat that Republicans routinely carry by double digits will almost assuredly not be competitive next year. But those involved in the race on both sides of the aisle say a confluence of factors — from lingering post-off year enthusiasm to the timing of the contest — make it worth watching, particularly given the GOP’s tiny majority in Washington.

It’s the last special election of 2025, and Republicans in the state are worried that the Thanksgiving holiday may keep voters away from the polls Dec. 2. Some voters showed up last week thinking the special election was taking place at the same time as other off-year races.

Both national parties are taking notice. The DNC is recruiting volunteers and phone banking for Behn, and the RNC is taking on a similar effort for Van Epps, telling POLITICO it is committing “six figures” to the race.

Van Epps' campaign put in a request with Trump’s team asking the president to host a rally in the district, one person familiar with the ask — who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations — told POLITICO, hoping a visit would boost turnout. The White House did not respond to a request for comment about the race.

“I'm cautiously optimistic,” said Scott Golden, chair of the Tennessee Republican Party. “But I think that there's a lot of blocking and tackling that we still need to do to make sure that the vote comes out.”

Behn has faced a slate of Republican attacks, including allegations of trailing ICE agents and supporting taxpayer-funded gender transition surgeries. But instead of engaging on the hot-button issues, her messaging has been razor-focused on affordability, something she views as key to winning over Republicans and independents.

Republicans know it's a tight race and are unleashing a get-out-the-vote campaign that prioritizes early voting, given the election’s timing. Van Epps has been traversing the district and hosting rallies in the home stretch, which is encouraging for Republicans in the state.

“This isn’t a race to sit at home for,” said Alex Joyner, Van Epps’ campaign manager. “We’re going across the district and encouraging Republicans to get out and vote.”

There hasn’t been much ad spending in the race since the October primary, with a bit more than $400,000 being put on the airwaves. Of that amount, Republicans have outspent Democrats 3 to 1, according to tracking service AdImpact.

But even with Republicans on edge, there is plenty of evidence that the party still has an advantage. Earlier this year, Democrats were hopeful they could flip similarly Trump-heavy districts in Florida, and one survey from Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio even showed them with an advantage.

In the end, Republicans Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis cruised to double-digit victories in the Sunshine State — underperforming Trump's 2024 margins but still winning comfortably, despite being massively outraised and outspent.

“I get enthusiasm [from Democrats], but fundamentally this is not New York City,” Golden said. “Tennessee is very conservative, and we understand what the stakes are.”

But if Democrats can eke out a win, Behn said it will provide a blueprint to winning the House in 2026.

“If we are able to flip it, it will send shockwaves around the country,” she said. “And it’ll be a testament to the type of candidate that will be successful in the South and how to rewrite the Democratic playbook for the future.”

A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.