Democrats In Virginia Are Betting Abortion Still Moves Votes

A new ad from the Democratic nominee in the Virginia gubernatorial election slams GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears for her longstanding opposition to abortion rights, a sign Democrats are hopeful that support for abortion rights can still win votes more than three years after the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade.

The ad from former Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s campaign attacks Earle-Sears for supporting a “near total ban with no exceptions for rape and incest.” It uses audio of Earl-Sears speaking at the 2022 March For Life, when she declared: “We know abortion is wicked.”

Spanberger is a clear but not overwhelming favorite in the general election, which will take place in November. Earle-Sears’ conservative views on social issues, along with her unwillingness to meaningfully break with President Donald Trump, have placed the Republican out of step with an electorate expected to be strongly motivated by backlash to the incumbent president.

Abortion was a significant and winning issue for Democrats in the 2022 midterms, which took place in the immediate aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. But the party’s hopes it could prove decisive in the 2024 presidential election were ill-founded, as Trump managed to muddy the waters on the issue by promising to leave abortion rights up to the states.

Earle-Sears has similarly tried to move on from her past hard-line opposition to abortion rights, saying in a May interview with a local news outlet she was “not limiting access at all.” She also allowed a measure setting up a vote on putting abortion rights in the state constitution to pass the state Senate, which she oversees in her role as lieutenant governor. Still, she added a note noting her “moral opposition” to the practice.

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But the Spanberger campaign is betting abortion can still sway voters, especially since Virginia has not held a gubernatorial election since the overturn of Roe. Polling has generally indicated that protecting abortion rights has become less of a priority since Trump’s victory ― a Christoper Newport University poll conducted last month found just 4% of voters said reproductive rights were their top issue in the election.

Polling averages indicate Spanberger has a roughly seven-point edge in the race. Democrats are hopeful she can win by enough to help the party also triumph in the lieutenant governor, attorney general and state legislative races happening the same day.

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