Democrats’ Path To A House Takeover Narrows By The Day

Democrats’ path to retake control of the House of Representatives got slimmer as more races were called on Wednesday and Thursday.

The party needs a net gain of four seats in order to win back the majority in Congress’ lower chamber. 

Thus far, Democrats have flipped five Republican-held seats: New York’s 4th, 19th, and 22nd congressional districts, as well as Alabama’s 2nd and Louisiana’s 6th. The latter two pickups were the product of court-ordered redistricting that created new, majority-Black seats.

But at least three of those pickups have been offset by defeats elsewhere. Democrats have lost control of Pennsylvania’s 7th and 8th congressional districts, and Michigan’s 7th. Democrats are also likely to lose a seat in Alaska, where Rep. Mary Peltola (D) trailed Republican Nick Begich by four points with roughly 75% of the vote counted.

It is still possible for Democrats to obtain the 218 seats they need to control the House, but they’ll need to flip at least six of eight GOP-held swing seats in California, Arizona, and Oregon that have yet to be called.

Those eight seats are: Arizona’s 1st and 6th congressional districts; California’s 13th, 22nd, 27th, 41st, and 45th districts; and Oregon’s 5th district.

As votes continued to be tallied on Thursday evening, Democrats are currently leading in just two of those seats. In Arizona’s 6th, Democrat Kirsten Engel was ahead of Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) by about 200 votes with more than one-quarter of the vote in Democratic-leaning Pima County, which is home to Tucson, still to be counted as of Thursday evening.

In Oregon’s 5th, a seat that stretches from Portland’s suburbs to Bend and surrounding areas, Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum led Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) by more than 2 percentage points with nearly 80% of the vote counted.

At the same time, Democrats are still in danger of losing existing seats, since the fate of several Democratic-held swing seats remains undetermined. 

In Washington’s 3rd, Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez led Republican Joe Kent with 87% of the vote counted. In Colorado’s 8th, Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo led Republican Gabe Evans by just under a percentage point with 88% of the vote counted. In Maine’s 2nd, Rep. Jared Golden (R) led Republican state Rep. Austin Theriault by under half of a point with more than 95% of votes counted. And in California’s 47th, the Orange County seat vacated by Rep. Katie Porter (D), Republican Scott Baugh led state Sen. Dave Min (D) by less than one-quarter of a percentage point with more than three-quarters of votes counted.

Still, following an election where the Senate and the presidency were called for Republicans within hours of the end of voting, the mere fact that control of the House is not yet decided makes the chamber a minor bright spot for Democrats. Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur, one of five House Democrats in seats Donald Trump carried in 2016 and 2020, won reelection. Two others — Gluesenkamp Perez and Golden — are well positioned to do the same.

“In a challenging electoral environment, House Democrats are once again defying political gravity,” House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a statement on Thursday. “Over the past two years, we have repeatedly put People Over Politics, and focused on lowering costs, growing the middle class and keeping our communities safe. In the new Congress, House Democrats will continue to govern with common sense and conviction.”

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