Democrats see the stars aligning in Iowa

For Iowa Democrats, a decade-long drought may finally be coming to an end.

The economic turmoil of the past year-and-a-half has been felt acutely in Iowa, where the agriculture-heavy economy has been jolted by tariffs. Medicaid cuts in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act are ransacking rural health facilities, Democrats say, and several clinics in the state have closed. And the Iran war has spiked prices for fertilizer and diesel — critical supplies for the farm state.

That’s all creating a dynamic that Democrats feel will propel voters their way in the midterms, giving them a shot at their first major statewide wins since the Obama era. And they’re confident that their candidates atop the ticket — a slate that was officially nominated in Tuesday’s primaries — will help carry Democrats in down ballot races.

“You go into these rural communities, the word that I hear the most is ‘betrayal,’” Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, told POLITICO in an interview late Tuesday night after winning his primary. “We're leading the nation in farm foreclosures. Farm suicide rates skyrocketing. And so the Trump signs and Trump flags are coming down, because they say we've been betrayed.”

Even some Republicans are sounding the alarm.

"The reality is, if voters do not trust Republican elected officials and candidates with the future of the economy, they're not going to vote for them this November," said Drew Klein, an Iowa-based regional vice president of Americans for Prosperity. "That is what is going to decide the election in November."

Democrats see economic issues providing an opening across rural America. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently commissioned polling they say shows economic dissatisfaction among rural voters, according to a memo shared first with POLITICO.

Both the Senate and governor’s seats are open in Iowa at the same time for the first time since 1968, and Democrats think they have a slate of nominees who could meet the moment.

“We're excited about it, and this is probably the first time in a long, long time when I can say that,” said Patty Judge, a Democrat who served as Iowa agriculture secretary and was Democrats’ last lieutenant governor before her ticket lost in 2010.

Iowa Democrats and DCCC are seriously targeting three of the state’s four House seats as well — seats they swept in the last wave election, in 2018.

Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist, cruised to victory Tuesday in the primary for U.S. Senate, a victory for national Democrats who backed his campaign and will be eager to support him in November. He’ll run statewide with Rob Sand, the current state auditor and rising star within the party, who ran unopposed in the gubernatorial primary.

But winning in Iowa will still be difficult and require Democrats to overcome a party brand that has become toxic in most rural corners of the country. No Democrat in the state has been elected governor since 2006, to the U.S. Senate since 2008 and to the U.S House since 2020. The last time the state went blue at the presidential level was 2012.

Republicans admit the environment isn’t great — but argue that Democrats will still fall short given how far right the state has shifted in the Trump era.

“I think it’s a huge hill to climb for Dems,” said David Kochel, a longtime Republican strategist who has done extensive work in the state. “Yes, a lot of things are breaking towards them, but we’re talking about a state where Trump won by 13.”

“Democrats turned their backs on Iowa years ago, and their candidates prove they still haven’t learned a thing,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Emily Tuttle. “Iowans want representatives who will fight for them, not lecture them or look down on them. That’s why Republicans are positioned to win across Iowa this November.”

Democrats’ optimism starts atop the ticket: Sand will take on Republican Zach Lahn, who won his primary with less than 40 percent of the vote over Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa).

Sand — an avid hunter who is the only statewide-elected Democratic official — has gained popularity in conservative Iowa for his independent, fiscally moderate streak. “They know him and trust him,” said Emma O’Brien, deputy campaign director for Sand. “He has bucked the Democratic Party and told them he disagrees where he has disagreed, and has given props to the other party when they do the right thing.”

Democrats are banking on Iowans being ready for a change after a decade of leadership from Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds. According to data from Morning Consult, she’s been the country’s most unpopular governor for two years running; 49 percent of Iowans disapproved of Reynolds’ performance as of February 2026.

“She's had control of the legislature that whole time, and it is just inarguable that people's lives are not better,” said Sue Dvorsky, a former Iowa Democratic Party chair. “Our health care is worse, our water is worse, the schools are in trouble. Every dimension that I think a family or a community uses to measure its health is down.”

A spokesperson for Reynolds did not respond to a request for comment.

In the Senate race, Turek will face off against GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, a race that early polls show in a statistical deadlock. Democrats have their sights on Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st District and Zach Nunn in the 3rd District — and even think Hinson’s open seat in the 2nd District could be in play.

“Instead of standing up for Iowans, [Republicans] have put themselves, special interests, and their party bosses first,” said DCCC spokesperson Katie Smith. “Iowa families are desperate for change and after years of broken promises and failures, are ready to reject these creatures of the swamp.”

The string of strong candidates atop the ballot will help carry candidates in state legislature and local races, Democrats say.

“It feels different,” Sarah Trone Garriott, the Democratic challenger to Nunn who was elected to the state Senate in 2022 and 2024, told POLITICO on Tuesday, before winning her primary. “I have been one of the only [Democrats] to win in those years, and that felt pretty lonely. But this feels really good.”

Iowa Democrats have seen recent flashes of hope. In 2025, Democrats won four of six special elections for the state legislature, breaking Republicans’ supermajority in the state Senate.

Democrats draw a straight line between the changes to Medicaid in last year’s reconciliation bill and rural health clinic closures. In Iowa’s 1st District, a medical center ended its labor and delivery services, citing issues with government funding; in the 3rd District, clinics closed explicitly because of “expected Medicaid cuts.”

Farmers — a traditionally Republican leaning coalition — voted heavily for Trump. “[Trump] is not very good for farmers, but farmers have been pretty good to him,” said Tom Miller, a Democrat who served for 40 years as Iowa’s attorney general.

But Iowa farmers have been heavily impacted by Trump’s tariffs and trade wars — not to mention the spike in fuel and fertilizer costs.

Last fall, some farmers told former state Rep. Christina Bohannan — the Democratic nominee in the 1st District, where she will face Miller-Meeks for the third consecutive cycle — that they waited to buy fertilizer until spring because of high costs caused by tariffs. “Then we went to war with Iran, and the fertilizer prices spiked even more,” Bohannan said. “So our farmers are really struggling.”

Aaron Heley Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union and a fifth-generation farmer, warned that rural voters should not be automatically counted on by any party. “People are feeling a lot of pain right now and not seeing a lot of action to match rhetoric,” Lehman said. “The degree of hurt that Iowa farmers are feeling is pretty wide.”