‘Don’t take this one for granted’: New Hampshire Democrats brace for a tough Senate race

Democrats got the Senate nominee they wanted in New Hampshire. But they're still concerned about November.

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and Republican former Sen. John E. Sununu will face off in a high-stakes showdown after advancing from their Tuesday primaries. Republicans want to flip the seat to bolster their Senate majority, while Democrats need to hold it if they hope to retake the chamber. And a pair of recent polls showing Sununu with a lead within the margin of error in a tight race have Democrats growing increasingly antsy.

Some Democratic donor advisers and fundraisers are attempting to push more money toward New Hampshire. One national Democratic donor adviser, granted anonymity to disclose private discussions, said they are urging their network to contribute to Pappas' campaign. And a major Democratic fundraiser, in a memo to their network late last month that was obtained by POLITICO, listed New Hampshire as one of their investment priorities, arguing that losing the state is "the equivalent of giving back one of the pickups Democrats are fighting to secure elsewhere."

"People have felt — and when I say people, I think particularly your out-of-state fundraisers and contributors — that this is going to be a safe seat, and so they have been investing in other races," said Jim Demers, a prominent New Hampshire Democratic strategist who is supporting Pappas but not working for his campaign. "Don't take this one for granted. Resources are needed here."

Demers said he's been privately urging several potential 2028 presidential hopefuls to keep stumping through the state to help drum up national attention, resources and volunteers for Pappas.

One of those possible 2028 contenders, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), told POLITICO in a text message Tuesday that Democrats need to "invest" in their nominee: "Sununu is a popular name. We cannot be complacent."

It's been more than a decade since New Hampshire voters sent a Republican to the Senate. But GOP leadership scored a major recruiting win with Sununu, the son of former Gov. John H. Sununu and brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu, who is seeking to retake the seat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) ousted him from in 2008.

Pappas has been warning he'll need help. He's cautioned in recent interviews that Democrats "can't afford to toss aside" the state and said "we've got to hold this race in order for the rest of the math to work for Democrats" to retake the Senate.

Republicans lined up behind Sununu early; Trump endorsed him in February despite Sununu's past opposition to his presidential bids. GOP groups have thus far outspent Democrats on the airwaves, according to tracker AdImpact — a disparity worrying some Democrats. Pappas has vastly out-raised Sununu, but the Democrat only had roughly $1 million more in cash on hand than his GOP rival as of mid-August, according to pre-primary federal campaign finance reports.

Former New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Kathy Sullivan said national Democrats need to up their cash flow to the state to counter Republicans. "You never like to see a poll showing a race that's tightening up, but it's good that that happened," Sullivan said. National Democrats "needed to wake up."

Both sides are sharpening their attacks as the general election officially gets underway, each accusing the opposing candidate of lobbying ties. Senate Leadership Fund, a Senate GOP-aligned PAC that's pledged to spend $17 million on the race, is going up with an ad Wednesday accusing Pappas of a conflict of interest concerning his now-husband, a former lobbyist, an attack line Pappas has previously refuted.

"From now until November, SLF will spend every day highlighting John E. Sununu's positive vision for New Hampshire while exposing the corruption, self-dealing, and radical record of Washington insider Chris Pappas," SLF Executive Director Alex Latcham said in a statement after Sununu's primary was called.

Meanwhile, top Democratic groups slammed Sununu for his post-Congress work on corporate boards. And Pappas' campaign manager, Rachel Petri, blasted Republicans for "trying to buy this Senate seat" in a statement Tuesday.

National Democrats who say they've long been preparing for a close race are planning their own advertising blitz. WinSenate, a group affiliated with the Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC, has said it is preparing to spend over $10 million on television.

"We understand that this is a must-win race, and we're taking it extremely seriously and have this entire cycle. Chris Pappas is in a really strong position, and we fully expect him to come out of this with a victory," SMP spokesperson Lauren French said. "But no one's taking New Hampshire for granted. We have significant both digital and television resources committed there. You are going to see those resources go live very soon."