2 weeks ago

Effects of Republican Senate majority will reverberate through the courts

Democrats knew they faced an uphill climb in holding their 51-49 Senate majority on Tuesday, with a map that tilted heavily in Republicans’ favor.

But as recently as Sunday, they held out hope that they could maintain control of the upper chamber. They offered cautious optimism that the Democratic incumbent Jon Tester could edge out the Republican Tim Sheehy in Montana, and they felt comfortable with the Democratic senator Sherrod Brown’s chances in Ohio.

In the end, Tester and Brown both lost along with the Democrat Glenn Elliott in West Virginia, representing three pick-ups for Republicans. As of Wednesday afternoon, Republicans had secured at least 52 of the Senate’s 100 seats, with the possibility of additional wins in battleground states.

Republicans’ new Senate majority will give the president-elect, Donald Trump, far more leverage to enact his legislative agenda and, crucially, confirm judicial and executive nominees.

To be clear, Republicans’ legislative prospects will largely depend on whether they can win full control of Congress. The House was still too close to call on Wednesday and would probably remain so for days, as California began the long process of counting millions of mail ballots. If Democrats win a narrow majority in the House, their conference will almost certainly act as a blockade for much of Trump’s agenda.

But even without a victory in the House, Trump and Senate Republicans’ partnership could have long-lasting impacts on the country’s courts and laws, given that the upper chamber confirms the president’s judicial nominees.

Trump has already nominated three justices to the supreme court, where conservatives hold a six-three majority. With Trump in office, the two oldest conservatives on the court – Clarence Thomas, 76, and Samuel Alito, 74 – may choose to step down to give him the opportunity to fill their seats. In the event that Senate Republicans confirmed Trump’s nominees to replace them, he would become the first president since Dwight Eisenhower to successfully appoint five members of the supreme court.

If he has the chance to select more supreme court justices, Trump would probably favor younger nominees who could sit on the bench for decades, given that justices serve lifetime appointments. That possibility underscores a chilling reality for many left-leaning Americans: even though Trump is limited to only serving two terms, the country may be dealing with the repercussions of his presidency far into the future.

During his first term, Trump and Senate Republicans prioritized confirming as many conservative judges as possible. Over his four years in office, the Senate confirmed 220 of Trump’s judicial appointments, according to the conservative Heritage Foundation. In comparison, Barack Obama saw 160 judicial confirmations over his eight years in office.

After Trump’s flurry of judicial nominations, Joe Biden made it a top priority to match his predecessor’s record. As of Wednesday, the Senate has confirmed 213 of Biden’s judicial appointments, with more possible in the final weeks before the new Congress is seated in January.

Because of Trump and Biden’s track records, the new president will inherit the fewest number of federal judicial vacancies in more than three decades, NBC News has reported. But even if the pace of judicial confirmations slows during Trump’s second term, the Republican majority in the Senate will still provide a rubber stamp on other nominations.

Trump has made clear that he intends to overhaul the federal government and perhaps even reclassify tens of thousands of non-partisan roles as political appointments. To get his cabinet members and lower-level administration officials confirmed, Trump will need the support of the Senate, and Republicans appear eager to help advance his plans.

Although Senate Democrats have lost their majority, their decision to leave the filibuster intact may benefit them in the new session of Congress. During Biden’s early presidency, Democrats had considered amending the filibuster, a legislative mechanism that effectively raises the threshold for passing bills from 51 votes to 60 votes. If Republicans win the House and full control of Congress, Senate Democrats may need to rely on the filibuster to stymie Trump’s agenda.

With their party shut out of power for at least the next two years, Senate Democrats will soon turn their attention to the 2026 midterms. But considering senators serve six-year terms, it could take far more than just two years to undo the damage that Tuesday wrought for Democrats.

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