Everything you need to know about California Democrats' redistricting measure

SACRAMENTO, California — California is about to vote on its most far-reaching and politically significant ballot initiative in a generation.

Amid an escalating gerrymandering war across the country, Proposition 50 offers Democrats their best opportunity since Donald Trump’s reelection to thwart the president, countering Republicans’ moves to shore up their House majority by instating a map that would help Democrats flip several seats. In a split-screen reflecting a deeply divided country, it pits sprawling red Texas against the blue behemoth of California.

This was supposed to be a quiet off-year in which California Democrats prepared for a cluster of competitive House races next year. Instead, they’re at the center of American politics — and if Prop 50 prevails, those House races will become far less competitive, tilting heavily Democratic.

Here’s everything you need to know.

The vote is in California. But it all started in Texas 

The seeds of this campaign were planted in Texan soil in early June when Texas House Republicans huddled as their state counterparts held a special session to discuss a potential snap redistricting that would boost Republicans. At first, it was unclear if Texas would proceed — but that uncertainty evaporated once Trump got involved.

The prospect of Texas creating five new GOP seats ahead of next year’s midterm elections spurred California Democrats into action. They began quietly discussing how they might respond, with Newsom’s team signaling it was ready to craft a map helping Democrats flip enough seats in California to neutralize GOP gains in Texas. By mid-July those conversations spilled into the open as Newsom repeatedly floated a California gerrymander in a series of podcast interviews.

Even then, some politicians and strategists didn’t know what to make of a proposal that struck many of them as legally dubious and politically risky. But that would change swiftly. Newsom and prominent California House Democrats coalesced behind a plan to have the Legislature put a map on a special election ballot. Democrats in Sacramento united behind the idea and passed it in early August, days after returning from their summer recess.

The stakes are enormous 

Already an endangered species in California, elected Republicans could be pushed to the brink of extinction.

The nation’s most populous state, California in recent cycles has been a key part of the national House map as both parties poured millions into defending or flipping a half-dozen battleground seats. But the new maps would scramble the equation: Of the nine Republicans currently representing House seats in California, five would become more vulnerable. Meanwhile, frontline Democrats like Dave Min and Derek Tran would see their seats get shored up.

Nothing is guaranteed: Central Valley Republican David Valadao has defied registration disadvantages to win cycle after cycle, and San Diego Republican Darrell Issa would have a real chance of defending his seat. These seats would also be temporary. If the measure passes, California’s nonpartisan commission would draw new districts in 2031 as planned. Newsom and allies have pointed to that to assure voters the measure wouldn’t permanently overturn the independent redistricting system that voters overwhelmingly approved in 2008 and expanded two years later to include congressional districts.

But the map is designed to help Democrats, and they would almost certainly pick up seats.

The measure is polling ahead 

All signs point to the measure likely passing. Polls have consistently found Prop 50 with a lead, and Republicans have retreated as the measure appears headed for victory.

It’s drawing a crowd 

Prominent Democratic politicians came front and center as Newsom and his allies worked to make this a maximally partisan campaign, urging voters to see it as Democrats versus Trump. That has meant ads starring well-known Californians like Newsom and Sen. Alex Padilla, along with national figures like former President Barack Obama, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

It’s been a different story for opponents. Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger championed California’s independent redistricting commission and vociferously opposes Prop 50, but he has not campaigned aggressively against the measure or spent significant sums against it. Good-government groups that initially assailed the idea have gone neutral.

And while Trump has been a recurring villain in the yes side’s messaging, the president has done little to defeat the initiative. Conventional wisdom suggests Trump, given how unpopular he is in California, would only help Prop 50 if he campaigned against it. And aside from his administration announcing it is sending election monitors to the state, he has stayed out of it as the White House has concluded it’s likely to pass. Nevertheless, some California Republicans wish he was doing more.

… and piles of cash 

California does not cap contributions to ballot measures. That has allowed both sides to pull in multimillion-dollar checks, but the yes side has had the clear financial advantage — so much so that Newsom took the highly unusual step of waving off donors last week.

Newsom’s committee raised roughly $120 million, an extraordinary sum in a compressed time frame. That was about three times what the main opposition committees could muster.

On the yes side, organized labor has been a major benefactor, pouring in more than $20 million. Wealthy individuals have cut enormous checks, too, led by George Soros ($10 million, through his nonprofit), tech investor Michael Moritz ($3 million), Netflix CEO Reed Hastings ($2 million), and Cargill heiress Gwendolyn Sontheim ($2 million).

National Democrats have stepped up, with House Democrats' super PAC supplying roughly $15 million and the Democratic Governors Association adding $2 million. Billionaire donor Tom Steyer has also launched his own $12 million ad blitz, irking some Democrats who have argued he muddled the campaign’s message.

Opponents relied largely on big checks from Berkshire Hathaway heir Charles Munger Jr., who championed the earlier ballot initiatives creating California’s independent redistricting system, and from a national Republican Super PAC. Munger has donated more than $30 million while Congressional Leadership Fund has sent $13 million.

California House Republicans have also spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to prevent their seats from getting scrambled, though the no side has come up far short of initial expectations. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy has given $1 million while overseeing one of the main opposition committees.

It’s a springboard for Newsom

Right before he launched this fight, Newsom was discarding any remaining plausible deniability about his presidential ambitions by touring the early primary state of South Carolina. Now Prop 50 has made him the leader of 2025’s marquee effort to check Trump’s power.

That could give Newsom a huge boost if the measure passes. The governor has already enlarged his national profile by embracing the role of anti-Trump pugilist, and he has used the campaign to supercharge his roster of out-of-state donors. A Prop 50 win — especially a convincing one — would hand Newsom a signature victory before he exits the governor’s office next year.

It seemed riskier before the measure began polling so well. Still, the downside if it fails is not insignificant, with Newsom making himself synonymous with the campaign and staking so much political capital. If voters reject Prop 50, they’re effectively repudiating Newsom as well — a potentially crippling blow in a state with a huge lode of primary delegates.

The gerrymandering math is still rough for Democrats

Democrats in a handful of blue states will see California as a litmus test as they weigh their own redistricting efforts. GOP-controlled legislatures in Missouri and North Carolina are already moving ahead with new maps to create an additional Republican seat in each state. Ohio Republicans cut a deal on new maps last week that will make two battleground districts held by Democrats more red. And the White House is leaning hard on Republicans in Indiana, Kansas and New Hampshire — although support for new maps in those states has yet to solidify.

If Democrats score a win on Prop 50, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (both potential presidential contenders, like Newsom) may be emboldened to move ahead in their states. As it stands, Virginia is the only state where Democrats are trying to follow California’s lead. Moore has signaled he’s open to eliminating the sole GOP seat in Maryland, but has yet to push for a special session to take up the issue, even as national Democrats continue to apply pressure.

Pritzker has been opposed to mid-decade redistricting in Illinois but noted recently he’s inclined to “not sit back and let” Republicans gain an edge in the House map. Whether he’s referring to his $250,000 donation to the Prop 50 campaign or a full-on redraw of the state’s maps remains to be seen, but House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has made it clear he wants Illinois to add another safe Democratic seat.