Fewer heat-related deaths in 2025 despite warmest summer

The number of heat-related deaths recorded during summer 2025 - the UK's warmest - was much lower than expected, officials have said.

Around 1,504 heat-associated deaths were reported in England, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), roughly half the 3,039 predicted.

The figures come despite last year being the warmest summer on record, with four heatwaves, a top temperature of nearly 38C and a mean temperature of 16.1C.

Heat health alerts, alongside action taken across the NHS and care system are likely to have reduced the impact, the UKHSA said.

Summer 2025 saw four heatwaves, although they were relatively short and not record-breaking, the Met Office has said.

However, the season's average temperature of 16.1C made it the warmest summer on record, surpassing the previous high of 15.76C set in 2018.

The summer of 1976 remains "iconic", according to the Met Office, with 16 days exceeding 32C compared to nine days in 2025.

The persistent warmth was been driven by a combination of factors, including the domination of high-pressure systems, unusually warm seas around the UK and the dry spring soils, the forecaster said.

Why were deaths lower than expected?

The UKHSA says it is possible that warmer conditions in late spring 2025 may have encouraged people to adopt earlier "protective" behaviours ahead of the peak heat.

Dr Agostinho Sousa, head of extreme events and health protection at UKHSA, said the lower-than-expected deaths "suggests that the actions taken across the health and care system may be helping to reduce harm".

However, he warned that continued vigilance is needed "as periods of heat become more intense, longer and more frequent".

"Coordinated preparation and response remain essential to protect the most vulnerable in our society".

Heat can affect anyone, but some vulnerable groups, like older people and babies, run a greater risk of serious harm.

As in previous years, the highest heat-associated mortality rates were seen in older age groups - the 75s and over.

Old age and some long-term conditions, such as heart disease, can leave people less able to cope with the strain heat puts on the body.

During hot weather, it can be easy to overheat, sometimes resulting in heat exhaustion or heatstroke.

What is the forecast for 2026?

The Met Office outlook for the global average temperature in 2026 suggests it will be over 1.46C, which would put it at one of the fourth warmest on record.

While there are no localised UK figures for the year ahead, the winter season has been relatively mild.

An area of low pressure is expected to deliver gales and heavy rain to northern and western areas, with the risk of damage and travel disruption.

But it is set to be a very mixed bank holiday weekend.