Here's how a shutdown could affect a new Congress and Trump's inauguration

WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump won’t be sworn in for another month, but a possible government shutdown is raising questions in Washington about how a funding lapse could affect the opening of the next Congress, the certification of Trump’s election, and his inauguration.

The short answer: probably not much.

That’s because the employees and functions that support the constitutional duties of the president and Congress — as well as life and property — are exempted from lapses in service.

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Though the federal government has never been closed for business in the January following a presidential election, Congress and past administrations — including Trump’s — have plenty of experience with continuing to operate during a shutdown.

On Capitol Hill, parliamentary experts have spent time gaming out what might happen under various scenarios. Here’s what we know — and don’t know — about a first-of-its-kind pre-inauguration shutdown.

The new Congress

Under the 20th amendment to the Constitution, the new Congress convenes at noon on Jan. 3.

A shutdown would not affect that process in its own right because neither lawmakers nor “essential” aides are required to stop working during a shutdown. Some employees deemed “non-essential” would be furloughed, but only those whose jobs are not necessary to lawmaking, security and other functions related to Congress’ constitutional duties.

The administration, which implements shutdown protocols for federal agencies, has no power over congressional employees.

The certification of the election results

While a lapse in federal funding would not stop Congress from carrying out its constitutional duties, the kind of political chaos that led to this month’s shutdown fight could.

Even before lawmakers are sworn in on Jan. 3, the House elects its speaker, which allows for all subsequent business to be conducted. But the current speaker, Mike Johnson, R-La., is on the hot seat — as evidenced by his struggle to find the votes to keep the government open.

In 2023, Republicans took five days — and 15 rounds of voting — to hand the speaker’s gavel to then-Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., on Jan. 7.

That raises the prospect that the House could fail to elect a speaker before Jan. 6, the day reserved for Congress to certify the electoral votes that will make Trump president.

If there is no speaker, there is no one with the procedural power to start the counting of the electoral votes. Without a speaker, the just-elected lawmakers cannot be sworn in — meaning they could not cast an official vote to certify the electoral votes or to re-open the government.

No one expects Jan. 6, 2025, to be an echo of the same day in 2021, when a mob of pro-Trump loyalists stormed the Capitol in a vain attempt to stop the certification of President Joe Biden’s loss. But a different kind of chaos — a headless House — is a related possibility.

Because the Senate is a “continuing body,” where two-thirds of its members were not on the ballot in November, it doesn’t face the same procedural hurdles.

Parliamentary experts on Capitol Hill have advised House leaders that there are possible workarounds if Republicans have not come to a consensus on who should serve as speaker by Jan. 6.

“One of the things the House can do if there is trouble, they can elect a temporary speaker or a speaker that is limited in purpose or duration,” said one former House aide who is familiar with the situation and was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

But, as the expert said, "This is all new territory."

The inauguration

Typically, the new president is sworn in by the chief justice of the United States on the West Front of the Capitol — a rare coming together of all three branches of government at the same time and place. It is a major national security event that requires intensive coordination among federal agencies and between the administration, Capitol Police and Washington, D.C., law enforcement officers.

There are employees at each of the federal security agencies that would be subject to furlough during a shutdown, but the Office of Management and Budget is clear in its guidance to agencies that workers who support the president’s official actions and provide for public safety should remain at their posts.

For example, the Department of Homeland Security’s contingency plan for a shutdown envisions retaining 150,063 employees who are “necessary to protect life and property” and 152 who are “necessary to the discharge of the president’s constitutional duties and powers.”

Even the National Park Service, which has responsibility for the grounds of the National Mall and adjacent landmarks, has a plan to make sure a shutdown would not leave its turf littered. The Park Service can use "the minimal level” of its money to “provide critical health, public safety, and protection services as an exempt activity in a manner that maintains restrooms and sanitation, trash collections … law enforcement emergency operations, and the protection of park resources.”

But ahead of the inauguration, officials are busy getting ready to transfer power and information at federal agencies. An administration official said that while the impact is still unclear, a shutdown will make that work harder.

"A shutdown this close to inauguration will be incredibly disruptive to the new administration," this person said. "It will slow down the offboarding and onboarding process and make it far more difficult for the agency landing teams to meet with their outgoing counterparts. We're in somewhat uncharted territory here, but this is not how to prepare to take office."

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com