Hogan tests how far a Senate Republican candidate can run from Trump

COLLEGE PARK, Maryland — As he campaigns for Senate in one of the bluest states in the country, Larry Hogan is testing the limits of a political strategy: How fast and far can he run from former President Donald Trump.

The Republican former governor of Maryland has publicly rejected Trump’s endorsement, said he won’t vote for him for president, and talks proudly about dispatching National Guard troops to quell the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.

“From the moment that Donald Trump came down the escalator until today, I have always made it clear exactly where I stand,” Hogan said in a recent speech to a conservative organization in the suburbs northeast of Washington.

It’s a strategy that would be career suicide for most Republicans and is markedly different even from GOP candidates in other blue states. Former professional baseball player Steve Garvey, for example, just dodges questions about Trump in his longshot campaign for Senate in solidly Democratic California.

So far, Hogan’s approach hasn’t delivered the results he needs.

As recently as early summer, Maryland looked like a possible pickup for the Republicans as they try to retake control of the Senate. That was partly on the strength of Hogan, who won his 2018 race for governor by 12 points — an impressive feat in a state where voters favored President Joe Biden by more than 30 points just two years later.

Hogan conceded in a recent interview that his attempt to court GOP voters and potential Democratic ticket-splitters isn’t yet producing the numbers he needs to win in November.

“The last two elections, I think I got about a third of the Democrats. We're not quite there. I think we're in the high 20s at this point,” Hogan told POLITICO on his campaign bus.

The problem isn’t just Trump, or Hogan. Democratic opponent Angela Alsobrooks has deep political roots as the former county executive of the second most populous county in the state. She defeated one of the wealthiest men in Congress to win the primary.

Hogan was only a few points behind in several summer polls, and dead-even in one case.

In recent weeks, Alsobrooks has established a more regular double-digit lead. It helped that Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascension injected a dose of adrenaline among Democrats in Maryland, where nearly a third of the population is Black.

Alsobrooks, who would make history as the first Black woman to represent Maryland in the Senate, describes Harris as a longtime friend and mentor — a stark contrast to Hogan’s effort to distance himself from the Republican party’s standard-bearer. The Democrat knows Hogan is viewed as a centrist, but pointedly notes that it won’t matter if Republicans gain control of the Senate.

“Who's in control of the agenda matters,” Alsobrooks told POLITICO in a phone interview. “No matter what Larry Hogan said, he's one person out of that caucus, and the leadership in the Senate controls the agenda. That's the truth.”

Alsobrooks has pointed to Hogan's praise of Trump's Supreme Court picks as an area where the two candidates align. But the former governor rejects the idea that he will be the make-or-break race for a Senate Republican majority. The party is far more likely to succeed in other states, he says.

“I'm in the bluest state,” Hogan said, comparing himself to other competitive races for Senate Republicans. “They're like, ‘You're going to be the 51st [Republican senator].’ What about all those other guys? Don't they have a better shot?”

Still, Republicans haven’t given up on the Maryland race, even as the party has mostly zeroed in on stronger prospects to flip the chamber, particularly Montana. Outside GOP groups are heavily investing in the state for the final weeks of the campaign.

Democrats back in Washington have acknowledged the competitive nature of the race, despite assertions they weren’t worried about the Maryland seat earlier this year.

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md), whose retirement opened up the seat, acknowledged that Alsobrooks faces challenges, particularly the fact that she’s less well-known in the Baltimore area.

“We don't underestimate the competitive nature of the election. Larry Hogan’s popular,” he said.

Hogan’s last-minute Senate bid was a surprise to much of Washington, and Democrats hadn’t originally budgeted to defend the state this cycle. Senate Republicans already had a spectacular 2024 map that meant they were largely able to go on the offensive. Without the former governor, Maryland wouldn’t have been on the GOP’s radar.

Hogan said the Senate’s failed attempt to pass a bipartisan border security deal motivated him to enter the race.

The bipartisan deal included restrictions on asylum and other border security measures in exchange for more aid to Ukraine. Trump torpedoed the deal, telling Republicans to vote against it because he feared it would help Biden in the election.

Hogan said the bill’s defeat prompted some “choice language” on his end.

“I was like: ‘This is enough. That's it. I'm gonna run for the Senate,’” he said. “My wife was there. I said, ‘Honey, what do you think about this?’ … She said: ‘It's probably better for us if you don't, right? … Politics is crazy, and it's not going to be any fun.’”

But, Hogan recalled, she added, “‘I know you. If you think you can do something to fix it, and you don't step up and try, then you're never going to be happy. You'll just be here yelling at the TV set.’ Like I was.”

To “fix it,” Hogan is vowing to act as a more critical swing vote in the middle of the chamber, shoring up the deal-making middle of the Senate, as many current lawmakers in that group head for the exits.

Hogan pointed to Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) — a perpetual thorn in Democrats’ side who has endorsed Hogan — as someone he’d emulate. Manchin brushed aside a question from POLITICO on Hogan’s likelihood of handing Republicans a majority.

“I’m worried about the character of the person we put here,” Manchin said. “If you get the right people here, good things will happen.”

Hogan did not directly answer a question on whether he, like Manchin, would consider switching his party affiliation to independent. He instead pointed to examples of his past work that he feels proves he has an independent mindset.

The key question is how much that will matter to voters, particularly with Alsobrooks frequently going on the airwaves to remind Marylanders that his election would mean a GOP Senate majority.

“Basically, what a lot of the campaign comes down to: She's like, ‘But he's a Republican,’” Hogan said in an interview. “They're like: ‘Yeah, we know that. We didn't care. We voted for him anyway.’”