How Republicans’ Texas gerrymandering plan could backfire and help Dems

A Donald Trump-backed effort to gerrymander Texas would boost the GOP’s attempts to cling to its razor-thin House majority in next year’s midterms — but it also runs a serious risk of backfiring.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott asked the state legislature to redraw the map during its special session this summer, following a push from the White House and the Justice Department. Ohio is also required by state law to redraw its lines before next year's midterms. Taken together, Republicans see an opportunity to potentially create more GOP seats, guarding against the possibility of a blue wave in 2026.

But in Texas, Republicans are in danger of creating a so-called dummymander, whereby an attempt to draw more seats for one party accidentally benefits the other. Texas’ congressional map already heavily favors the GOP, so any changes to further benefit the party would have to walk a careful line. Adding Republican voters to blue districts to reduce Democrats' margins means taking those same voters out of the red districts where they reside. The result is more competitive districts across the board — ones Democrats hope to take advantage of as they harness anti-Trump energy in the midterms.

“They are playing a little bit of roulette with these maps,” said Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas). “In a wave election like what we have a potential opportunity for in ‘26 I think it makes these Republicans very vulnerable.”

Texas has 38 House seats, with 25 held by Republicans. Members of the state’s Democratic delegation huddled with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries as the redistricting talk ramped up, with follow-up meetings planned.

Jeffries warned in a statement Wednesday that an aggressive map could “result in making several incumbent House Republicans vulnerable to fierce general election challenges.”

“Republicans are cutting off their nose to spite their face,” he added.

Republicans see a path to draw as many as five additional GOP seats in Texas and three in Ohio, which is legally required to redraw its maps this year — a move that would provide a major boost to their odds of maintaining control in the House.

But to keep more GOP incumbents safe, Republicans could instead push for fewer, such as three extra seats in Texas and two more in Ohio. So far, Republicans have not released any potential maps.

“For the Democrats to say this is going to be a dummymander, how do they know that?” said Republican election lawyer Jason Torchinsky. “Until you see a map and analyze it, who knows?”

Some Democrats want to push for retaliation in blue states where they control state government — rare opportunities given their diminished electoral footprint. They only have trifecta control in 15 states, and many have ceded that power to independent redistricting commissions and other reforms to prevent partisan gerrymandering.

“It needs to be a national effort. We can't just allow red states to run amok and redraw lines,” Johnson said. “If that's going to be the game that's played, then Democratic states need to do the same thing. Control in the House is vitally important to the country, and Democrats have to use every tool we have.”

The GOP controls the White House, both branches of Congress and 27 governorships and enjoys a conservative majority on the Supreme Court. One of Democrats’ best chances to claw back some power next year is through the House, where they only have to flip three seats.

In the biggest Democratic-controlled state, California, maps are drawn by an independent commission. In the second-largest, New York, there’s little appetite to reopen the redistricting process mid-decade after a failed effort last cycle.

“It sets a bad precedent in that you could just redraw the lines anytime you want,” New York Democratic Assemblymember Michaelle Solages said. “I don’t think folks would be interested in doing that.”

Democrats are almost certain to sue over whatever new maps are created in both Ohio and Texas, said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.

“I imagine we will have a lot to say about the map they create and the legalities of it,” he said Thursday.

Republicans said the Democratic celebration is premature and believe the plan can work.

"I think it's great that Hakeem Jeffries has endorsed mid-decade redistricting in Texas," said Adam Kincaid, president of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, the national GOP's redistricting arm.

Asked for comment on whether his plan to redistrict could hurt some of the GOP incumbents, Abbott press secretary Andrew Mahaleris dodged, saying in a statement, “while partisan activists focus solely on political issues, Governor Abbott is dedicated to delivering results on issues important to Texans.” He cited flood relief and property tax cuts.

Privately, Texas Republicans are laying blame for the redistricting push on the White House and were wary of moving forward with the proposal when they met last month.

“It’s a two-way street. Nobody’s going to be able to dictate it. And then I assume there’ll be some litigation,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said Thursday, when asked about GOP concerns over redistricting.

In calling for redistricting, Abbott cited “constitutional concerns raised by the U.S. Department of Justice,” a reference to a July 7 letter from Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon that highlighted four districts around Houston and Dallas she said are racial gerrymanders.

Abbott is relying on those warnings to justify his plans. The party will likely seize on Republican-favored districts in the Rio Grande Valley, targeting Democratic Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar in the process. Their ambitions are fueled by dramatic shifts in those areas as Trump made significant gains with Latino voters last year.

“If they're going to do that, then they're absolutely going to put more Republicans at risk,” said Rep. Marc Veasey, who represents a Dallas-area district singled out by the Justice Department.

Republicans will also face the challenge of drawing new maps using old data. Lawmakers will rely on the same 2020 Census data that undergirded current maps. That data, collected during Covid, was already imperfect, and the Census Bureau found Texas was among the states with a significant undercount. And since then, the state’s population has grown by 2 million. But any new districts won’t account for that, adding uncertainty to the GOP’s efforts.

“I would be concerned if I were them, thinking about how to cut margins close when you don't actually know what the population looks like, let alone what the population is going to feel in 2026,” said Kareem Crayton, vice president at the Washington office of the Brennan Center, a liberal think tank.

Even senior Republicans are left guessing.

“I'm as interested as you are in how that's going to turn out,” Cornyn said.

Nick Reisman and Mia McCarthy contributed to this report.