‘Liberation Day’ comes for California almonds

SACRAMENTO, California — President Donald Trump’s trade wars are putting California farmers and ranchers, happy with his promises to deliver more water, back into financial — and political — limbo.

Trump announced a universal tariff of 10 percent on imported goods today, with higher rates for some of the United States' top trade partners, including 20 percent on European Union goods.

Looming retaliatory tariffs could hit California farmers hard, with a cost ranging from hundreds of millions of dollars to the billions, according to one University of California, Davis study — potentially surpassing the cost of California’s last bigdrought in 2021.

California’s agricultural industry, the largest in the nation, has lobbied Congress and the White House to avoid harm from tariffs, just like other business groups. But it’s treading carefully to not appear ungrateful for the White House’s promises on water.

“There’s some anxiety around presentation,” said Western Growers Association Chair Stuart Woolf, who grows almonds, agave and other crops in the San Joaquin Valley. “It’s a unique thing. How do you thread this needle and not sound like a whiner?”

Take, for example, almonds, which are California's most valuable food export, making up roughly 20 percent of the state's $23.6 billion in agricultural sales abroad (followed by dairy products, pistachios, wine and walnuts) and 2.5 percent of California’s overall exports. The Golden State produces 80 percent of the world’s supply and exports most of the almonds it grows.

The California Almond Alliance told Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in a March letter that retaliatory tariffs would hurt American profits and cede more market share to competitors, like Australia. Its main ask: a smooth government bailout if retaliatory tariffs can’t be avoided.

There’s a sense of déjà vu: Farmers remember Trump’s trade wars during his first term, when China, the top destination of California almonds at the time, imposed a 55 percent retaliatory tariff that cost the state's industry hundreds of millions of dollars. The federal government provided relief funds to growers, but California nuts weren’t eligible at first.

They're focused on soothing their top export markets, which are now the European Union, India and then China. “Developing strategic responses to counteract and mitigate the impact of retaliatory measures taken by key trading partners will be crucial in maintaining market stability and growth,” wrote Alexi Rodriguez, the president of the Almond Alliance, in the March letter.

Almonds do have a few things going for them. They have an ally on the inside: Trump last month named former Almond Alliance president Aubrey Bettencourt to lead the Natural Resource Conservation Service, a USDA agency focused on soils.

Also, California’s nut growers are just finishing up selling last year’s almonds at a good price, after rebounding from a market glut. But that may be only a short reprieve: They’re also anticipating a bumper crop this year.

“There are plenty of almond growers, I guarantee you, that are worried about what are they going to do with them next November when they've harvested them, unless this tariff fiasco ends fairly soon and whatever retaliation happens is settled before this new and almost surely larger crop comes on board,” said Dan Sumner, a professor of agricultural economics at UC Davis.

China’s already raised tariffs 10 percent on U.S. fruit, nuts and vegetables. The EU, India and others could soon follow. Woolf's planning a trip to D.C. next month to talk to Congress and federal officials, while other farmers are still counting their blessings.

“We're just hopeful that this thing somehow straightens up so we don't get affected,” said Joe Del Bosque, a melon and almond farmer on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley. “Trump has been positive for us in water … That's why a lot of farmers supported Trump.”

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