Montana Democrat Stays In Senate Race Despite Pressure To Drop Out

Montana Democratic Senate candidate Alani Bankhead will not withdraw her name from the November ballot after state and national Democrats had pushed her to quit the race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Steve Daines in favor of independent candidate Seth Bodnar.

"I am in this race to win it, and I am staying in this race through Nov. 3," Bankhead said at a press conference hours ahead of the deadline to withdraw from the race on Monday.

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Bankhead's decision means that the anti-GOP vote will remain split with Bodnar, giving GOP nominee Kurt Alme a much easier path to victory. Recent polling shows Bodnar leading or tied with Alme in a head-to-head race, but Alme winning easily with both Bodnar and Bankhead in the race. Bodnar has also far out-paced Bankhead in fundraising, pulling in more than $3 million to her $58,000.

Numerous state Democratic Party leaders and allied organizations pushed Bankhead to quit the race in favor of Bodnar. Both recent former Democratic Sens. Jon Tester and Max Baucus endorsed Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana, as did the state's service employees and public worker unions. Bodnar also received the endorsement of former GOP Gov. Marc Racicot, who endorsed Tester in his losing reelection bid in 2024.

Just days before the deadline to withdraw, 22 Montana Democratic state lawmakers sent a letter to Bankhead urging her to withdraw.

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Bodnar supporters believe that he gives Democrats the best chance of winning a Republican-held seat in a Republican-leaning state. While Bankhead's refusal to quit the race could split the vote against Alme, it is still not impossible for the race to be competitive.

"I think there's a chance for him to win, but I certainly think it complicates it," Tester told HuffPost.

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Bankhead's refusal to quit the race is the lone failure by Democrats to execute a new strategy of leaving the field clear for an independent candidate to challenge a Republican. Democratic candidates in Senate races in Nebraska, Idaho and South Dakota, and the House race in Alaska, have all dropped out to make room for independents to take on Republicans head-to-head.

All of these states, Montana included, are among those ripe for independent candidates running without a Democrat in the race, according to a study by the political data site Split Ticket. This is due to their combination of low minority populations, low numbers of evangelical Christians and high Republican preference.

Minority voters, who predominantly vote Democratic, view their party preference as connected to their identity and, therefore, are more likely to not vote in an election where no Democrat is on the ballot. The same goes for evangelicals, whose religious beliefs are deeply enmeshed with their pro-GOP political preference. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party brand can be a drag in states where voters tend to prefer Republicans.

Among the states where independents are running in lieu of Democrats, Montana has the most recent history of Democratic Party success. The state had a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators as recently as 2014. President Bill Clinton won the state in 1992 and President Barack Obama nearly did in 2008. But politics have shifted heavily in favor of Republicans since President Donald Trump's election in 2016 as Democrats have not won a statewide race since 2018.

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