Morning Bid: November lift ahead of tariff hearing

By Mike Dolan

-What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

World markets kicked off November in an upbeat mood, riffing off buoyant company earnings and calmer trade relations while batting away OPEC's planned end to output hikes and this week's Supreme Court hearing on President Donald Trump's tariffs.

Following last week's meeting between Trump and China's President Xi Jinping in South Korea, the White House announced Saturday that China would lift export controls on rare earths and end probes into U.S. chip firms. But Trump said AI giant Nvidia's most advanced chips would be reserved for U.S. companies and kept out of China and other countries.

October manufacturing surveys are due to give some glimpse of nationwide activity later amid an official economic data outage that's accompanying the ongoing government shutdown, now heading for a record in excess of 35 days this week. Federal food aid lapsing this month is seen by some as one reason politicians may be forced to end the dispute soon.

But however damaging the shutdown may prove to be in the final quarter, the third quarter was an impressive one for corporate America after a turbulent start to the year.

According to LSEG data, Q3 annual profit growth for the S&P 500 is now estimated to be running at almost 14% - five percentage points faster than estimated a month ago and faster than was penciled in at the start of the year.

With the likes of Palantir and Eastman Chemical in today's earnings diary, the picture appears to be brightening beyond the red-hot AI sector.

Wall Street index futures are higher heading into Monday's open, with crude oil prices steady despite the weekend OPEC decision. Treasury yields edged lower from Friday's highs, while the dollar nudged up to three-month highs.

Fed bank presidents on Friday aired their discomfort with the decision to ease policy, and traders are now pricing in just a 68% chance of another 25 bps cut in December. Pushing again for the Fed to ease more, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that parts of the economy, particularly housing, may already be in recession because of high rates.

One event being watched closely this week is the start on Wednesday of Supreme Court arguments about the legality of a whole swathe of Trump's tariffs. While even a ruling against may just see the tariffs enacted under different legislation, it could create a hiatus in the process and involve rebates to firms that have paid.

Overseas, the focus was on relatively downbeat factory surveys for last month - with the euro, yuan and yen all a touch weaker. However, most global bourses were higher on Monday.