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Nate Silver Picks 27 Democrats to Watch

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Guest Essay

Nov. 15, 2026, 1:00 a.m. ET

An image of a microphone in fuzzy double silhouette.
Credit...Photo Illustration by Aleksey Kondratyev for The New York Times

After one of the biggest midterm landslides in recent U.S. history, the Democratic Party is undergoing a substantial redefinition of what it is.

That process must continue, because while the party had a wildly successful midterm, the Democratic brand remains unpopular.

How will this political project unfold, and who will lead it? I decided to assess and scout the people I believe will play the biggest role in directing the party’s future.

I picked 27 politicians. One group is made up of likely candidates in the 2028 derby. In that, Democrats will have an enviable problem: almost too many candidates to choose from.

Members of a second group are the rising stars of the party, or what I’ll deem the Class of 2026, who had breakthrough victories this year.

All told, there are 26 Democrats — plus a special case, Mayor Zohran Mamdani of New York, who isn’t technically in either group.

Progressive Ideology Moderate

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Fighter Style Uniter

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  • Class of 2026
  • 2028 contenders
  • Special case

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