National Republicans jump into race for New Jersey governor

National Republicans are wading into the race for New Jersey governor — the latest indication that the party is bullish about Jack Ciattarelli’s chances of flipping the state in November.

Restore New Jersey, a super PAC backed by the Republican Governors Association, is placing an initial $1 million advertising buy over the next week to boost Ciattarelli in the final stretch of his campaign against Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, who is benefiting from $20 million in spending from her own super PAC.

The reservation is a significant investment from national Republicans, who did not have much of a presence during the 2021 race due to the perception that Ciattarelli couldn’t unseat Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. The RGA spent more than $3 million in that election, while a group backed by the Democratic Governors Association dropped more than $8 million.

That level of participation in 2021 frustrated New Jersey Republicans at the time, and some argued that more outside help could have helped Ciattarelli close the 3-point gap he had with Murphy.

But after that narrow loss — and President Donald Trump’s gains in the state last year — Ciattarelli caught national Republicans’ attention. High-ranking members of the GOP have touched down in the Garden State throughout the year, including RGA Chair Brian Kemp, who fundraised for Ciattarelli. Ciattarelli also has Trump’s endorsement, which he has touted throughout the campaign — though Democrats are confident the president’s low approval rating in the state will drag him down.

Restore New Jersey’s ad, first shared with POLITICO, goes after Sherrill on skyrocketing utility bills, which has emerged as a top issue in the race. Ciattarelli has sought to cast the blame on the Murphy administration for high costs, while Sherrill has pointed the finger at the regional grid operator and the Trump administration.

The spot criticizes Sherrill’s plan to declare a state of emergency to freeze energy rates should she become governor — a proposal that has been met with skepticism, including from Murphy. The narrator argues that she “wants to lock these high prices in,” and calls Sherrill — who has sought to portray herself as independent of the incumbent — “more of the same, but worse.”

Change New Jersey, a separate super PAC supporting Ciattarelli, has been running a digital advertisement that similarly hits Sherrill over her energy plan.

Sherrill campaign spokesperson Sean Higgins called the Restore New Jersey ad a "blatantly misleading, desperate smear from Jack Ciattarelli's MAGA allies" because the clip included of Sherrill — in which she was criticizing Democratic messaging that said clean energy would cost "an arm and a leg" — was taken out of context to make it seem like she said clean energy would cost more. Sherrill has campaigned on a promise that clean energy will lower utility costs.

It is unclear how much Restore New Jersey will spend beyond the initial one-week reservation. The group did not indicate how much it plans to drop on the election in a recent filing with the state.

The RGA did not say how much it is contributing to Restore New Jersey, though that will be disclosed in the next state campaign finance reports, which are due on Oct. 6. In Virginia, the only other state with a gubernatorial race this year, the RGA made a $500,000 commitment to support GOP nominee Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.

Both parties are looking to the New Jersey gubernatorial race, as well as the election in Virginia, to get a sense of what messages are resonating with voters ahead of next year’s high-stakes midterms.

Democrats have expressed their confidence in both races, but acknowledge that New Jersey’s election will be more of a challenge. It has been decades since Democrats last won the New Jersey governorship three terms in a row, and the 2021 race was unexpectedly close after polls underestimated Ciattarelli’s performance. Recent public polling has shown Sherrill with a single-digit lead.

Democrats are vastly outspending the GOP with just weeks to go before voters start casting ballots — a move that Republicans argue shows that Democrats are concerned about the race. The Democratic National Committee made an initial investment of $1.5 million in New Jersey (as well as Virginia) and Greater Garden State, a super PAC backed by the DGA, committed $20 million on advertising to boost Sherrill. That’s around twice as much as the DGA-backed group spent in 2021.

Greater Garden State has been on air for over a week, with a spot criticizing Ciattarelli over affordability and for his ties to Trump. (Ciattarelli accused Democrats of taking his comments regarding sales tax out of context in this ad.) Ciattarelli has placed around $3 million on advertising through Election Day, and Sherrill has reserved around $2 million so far, according to ad tracker AdImpact.

The national committees are likely to invest in races where they are confident in the nominee’s chances of winning — especially as they look forward to the three-dozen gubernatorial races on the map next year.

“These races should be viewed in the context of the 2026 map as it relates to its competitiveness, how likely it is to flip,” said Jesse Hunt, a former communications director for the RGA. “The people who are going to be engaging do have to worry about 2026 as well, because money is not unlimited.”

This year’s election has already been record-breaking. Spending in the primary alone surpassed $145 million, making it the most expensive gubernatorial race in state history.