New York GOP’s midterm problem: No money, no bench — and Trump

NEW YORK — It’s not easy being a Republican in New York. It’ll be even harder this midterm election year.

Across the deep blue state, the GOP is being outraised and outpolled in key races. The reality is familiar enough for the perpetual underdogs — they haven’t won a statewide contest in more than 20 years. But their woes are compounded now by President Donald Trump’s abysmal favorability, prodigious fundraiser Rep. Elise Stefanik exiting office and a dearth of competitive candidates.

The state GOP faithful are kicking off their nominating convention today on battleground Long Island. Nassau County is home to gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman, who’s lagging Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul nearly 2 to 1 in polling. The confab is also in the district of one of the country’s most vulnerable House Democrats — Rep. Laura Gillen — against whom, puzzlingly, Republicans have yet to put up a viable challenger.

That race and several other New York swing districts will be crucial in determining control of the House and the fate of Trump’s final two years in the White House.

New York Republicans’ misery is fueling Democratic elation.

“It’s bleak,” said Jay Jacobs, the state Democratic Party chair who doubles as leader of the Nassau County Democrats. “Right now, they’re in a bad political environment with the polling numbers for President Trump, who Bruce Blakeman has tied himself to as tightly as you can.”

Blakeman, the recently reelected Nassau County executive, is the rare Trump loyalist who has won where Democratic voters outnumber Republican ones. But he’s also a MAGA Republican running while public opinion shifts against Trump’s shock-and-awe immigration tactics in blue cities, tariffs exacerbate cost-of-living concerns and the future of Obamacare subsidies remain uncertain in Congress.

Some New York Republicans appear to be cutting their losses or quitting politics all together. GOP challengers to Attorney General Letitia James and upstate Democratic Rep. John Mannion abandoned their campaigns last month. Stefanik bowed out of the race for governor and decided against running for reelection, leaving the state party without its brightest star and a figurehead who brought in millions for Republican candidates.

The New York GOP hopes Blakeman can drive up the vote in suburban stretches around the state, but the map is looking less competitive for Republicans this cycle. The GOP took a drubbing across the state in November’s local contests and lost a bellwether special election for state Senate in western New York last week.

The number of House battlegrounds has shrunk to four from seven in 2024. Of the four, GOP Rep. Mike Lawler’s race was downgraded to a toss-up, Democratic Rep. Josh Riley has 12 times more cash on hand than his challenger, Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi’s main rival launched only just last week, and the former member of Congress who’d likely be Gillen’s toughest competition hasn’t yet decided if he’s running.

New York’s beleaguered Republicans have had glimmers of hope over the years. Four years ago, another Republican Long Islander, Lee Zeldin, came within 6 points of defeating Hochul. It’s far too early to lose hope, they say.

“Election Day is nine months away, and that’s a lifetime in politics,” New York Republican State Committee spokesperson David Laska said. “A midterm election of a presidential year is always challenging for the party in power. Here in New York, we’re in a very unique circumstance because Democrats have had total control of Albany for eight years now and in that time we’ve become the most taxed, most regulated, least free state in the country.”

Blakeman is their ticket to winning statewide office for the first time in a generation as a suburban Republican who won his seat in 2021 and kept it red last year, Laska said.

Blakeman has built his reputation through local culture wars like banning trans athletes, rejection of “sanctuary” policies protecting immigrants in the country illegally and encouraging collaboration with federal immigration officers. The county executive, broad-shouldered and silver-haired, looks the part enough that Trump has lauded him as sent from “central casting.”

As Blakeman campaigns around the Empire State, he stresses his close relationship to Trump while focusing on economic issues that propelled him to office. One of his recent pitches had echoes of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” rallying cry.

“New Yorkers need a governor that will make them happy again,” Blakeman said at last week’s Conservative Party convention in Albany. “That means more money in their pockets and cheaper energy costs, so they can provide things for their family.”

Blakeman has the benefit of the Nassau County GOP machine, a storied political apparatus with reach across the island and a disdain for neighboring New York City, especially its democratic socialist mayor, Zohran Mamdani.

Nassau GOP Chair Joe Cairo led a sweep of countywide offices last year, but Democrats flipped two House seats in his backyard in 2024. Suozzi now has a $4.5 million reelection war chest, ready for Trump-endorsed challenger and former state Assemblymember Mike LiPetri. The GOP candidate launched his campaign just last week, hasn’t yet reported fundraising and lagged badly in funds last cycle.

LiPetri lost to Suozzi by less than 4 points in 2024, despite the cash disadvantage. But this year, he may first have to compete in a primary against Republican Greg Hach, who does not have local party support.

Gillen has $2.2 million cash on hand and is waiting to learn whether former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, confirmed in December as Department of Labor inspector general, will make a comeback bid.

“While Republicans are busy holding a political convention in my district, I’m focused on lowering costs, making health care more affordable and delivering resources to my community,” Gillen said in a statement.

Andrew Grossman, spokesperson for Battleground New York, a coalition of labor unions and progressive groups, predicted Riley, Suozzi and Gillen will win and Lawler will lose in November as New Yorkers worry about health care and grocery costs.

“It’s no surprise the Republicans can’t field good candidates in New York,” Grossman said.

Lawler passed up a bid for governor last year and is focused on his very tough reelection contest as six Democrats vie to run against him. He’s battle-tested, both by intense congressional campaigns and raucous town halls in his Hudson Valley district north of New York City.

The moderate Republican notes that he outraised all his Democratic rivals combined — although only if the math excludes self-funding candidates. The top-raising candidate in New York’s 17th District is tech company founder and small-town Deputy Mayor Peter Chatzky, who is spending more than $5 million of his own fortune to go up against Lawler.

In Lawler’s bid for political survival, he’s doubling down on his moderate leanings while weaponizing everything at his disposal. He penned an op-ed in The New York Times declaring the country’s immigration system broken and calling for bipartisan solutions, and he bucked his party to back enhanced Obamacare subsidies.

Though Trump has all but neutralized Republican attacks on Mamdani by cozying up to him at their Oval Office meeting in November, Lawler still uses the New York City mayor as a cudgel against his challengers, most of whom are keeping mum about the polarizing progressive icon.

“While Congressman Lawler is building a winning, bipartisan coalition, Democrats are running scared and refusing to answer basic questions,” said Ciro Riccardi, Lawler’s campaign manager. “They won’t say whether they [would] accept Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement.”