Next Week’s Democratic Primaries Are A Major Test Of Progressive Power

A trio of Democratic primary elections in California, Iowa and Montana on Tuesday are set to test the political power of the progressive movement and whether voters in conservative and swing districts are willing to trust left-leaning candidates to flip Republican-held seats in November. 

The biggest showdown is in California’s Central Valley. Randy Villegas, a college professor endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), is running against state assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains, who’s backed by the Democratic Party’s official campaign apparatus, which thinks she’d do better against Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) in November. 

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“National Democrats and the Democratic establishment want somebody who’s going to be bending the knee to corporate interests, who’s going to be bending the knee to party leadership, and they know that I won’t do either of those things,” Villegas told HuffPost. He criticized Bains for accepting corporate PAC campaign contributions.

“We’re giving people something to believe in besides ‘We’re not Trump,’” Villegas said. “We can’t win this election by trading one corrupt representative who sold out our communities for another.”

Bains, a doctor who treats Medicaid patients, rejected the idea she’s somehow “corrupt” and said she doesn’t consider herself part of the Democratic establishment. “I consider myself a physician that’s working to increase access to health care,” she said. “I consider myself a person that has always worked to protect vulnerable communities. My community knows very well the work that I’ve done here.”

Bains is seen as the most moderate Democrat in the California legislature, even voting against Gov. Gavin Newsom’s plan to aggressively gerrymander the state in the party’s favor. But she has a strong electoral record, having outperformed Kamala Harris by more than 7 points in 2024. 

The Villegas-Bains matchup is likely the bitterest intra-party fight among the primaries playing out Tuesday in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota. While progressives have won major victories in Pennsylvania, Illinois and elsewhere this cycle, the California battle, alongside primaries in Montana and Iowa, shift the territory from safely blue seats where electability is a minor concern to areas where the ability to beat Republicans in November could be central to voters’ considerations. 

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In Montana, the “smokejumper” Sam Forstag faces off against three other Democrats for the chance to run against a Republican in November for the seat being vacated by Rep. Ryan Zinke, a Republican who served in the first Trump administration. Forstag’s heroics as a union leader and firefighter — the kind that parachutes into burning forests — won him a glowing profile in Esquire magazine. 

Ocasio-Cortez campaigned for Forstag in Missoula on Thursday and described learning about his former occupation.

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“Sam is a smokejumper, and I had to learn what a smokejumper was,” Ocasio-Cortez said, to laughs in the crowd. “As it turns out, it’s one of the most dangerous jobs there is. I learned about how smokejumpers parachute out of small planes into wildfires that other firefighters can’t reach, and they work for days to keep the fire from reaching the next town.”

A poll this month suggested most people in Montana had never even heard of Forstag, and he trailed in the race to Ryan Busse, a gun company executive turned gun-control activist and a former Democratic candidate for governor in the state. If AOC’s endorsement helps Forstag win, a lot more people are going to learn about smokejumping.

In Iowa, the comparatively moderate state Rep. Josh Turek, who has emphasized electability and his history of winning in a district that favors Trump, is seen as a strong favorite over the more progressive State Sen. Zach Wahls, who has the backing of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in the state’s Senate primary. But Turek’s advantage has more to do with his financial edge — outside support for Turek has exceeded $10 million — than any ideological concern.

Other tests of progressive power are coming in California’s gubernatorial race, where the establishment-oriented Xavier Becerra is fighting to hold off billionaire Tom Steyer, who has staked out progressive positions on taxation, healthcare and energy issues; in New Jersey, where Sanders-backed Adam Hamawy is trying to escape from a crowded field; and in New Mexico’s gubernatorial primary, where progressive former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland is favored to advance as she seeks to become the first Native American woman governor.

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The contest in California between Villegas and Bains is contentious. Bains has hammered Villegas for having served on a school board in a district that settled ****** abuse cases against a school staff member, even though he himself was not accused of any misconduct. 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee thinks Bains has a better shot at beating Valadao, noting her deep roots in the Central Valley and the fact that she already represents a portion of the district in the state legislature. They also pointed to Republican meddling in the race to boost Villegas instead of Bains. 

“They know she can defeat Valadao,” DCCC spokeswoman Anna Elsasser told HuffPost in a statement. 

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a House Republican campaign arm, has sent voters text messages purporting to warn them Villegas is “too extreme” for the district because he’s endorsed by Ocasio-Cortez. The message likely boosts Villegas among Democratic primary voters. 

The fact that Bains is a doctor also plays to a weakness for Valadao. The district has the highest proportion of constituents on Medicaid of any in Congress. Valadao was one of several moderate House Republicans who warned party leaders last year not to use Medicaid cuts to help pay for tax cuts, only to vote for the legislation anyway. Millions of people are projected to lose Medicaid coverage in the coming years as a result. 

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Bains said Valadao’s vote was what pushed her to declare her candidacy. 

“I saw him vote for it, and that day I decided I needed to do something,” Bains told HuffPost. “I created my career around taking care of vulnerable patients, and that day I saw it being ripped away.”

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