Orban’s chummy relationship with Trump could help his oil sanctions pitch

President Donald Trump sees Hungary’s Viktor Orban as something of a kindred spirit, a model for the sweeping reforms of his own second term. That’s exactly why Europeans are nervous ahead of the president’s first face-to-face meeting with Orban at the White House, weeks after the U.S. finally imposed sanctions on two Russian oil companies.

Orban is coming to the White House Friday squarely focused on obtaining an exemption on the sanctions. People inside and outside the administration haven’t ruled out the idea Trump might grant one, pointing to Hungary’s close relationship with both Russia and Trump as factors in Orban’s favor.

An exemption for Hungary would amount to a major carveout of Trump’s sanctions regime against Russia, not to mention his criticism of the European nations still purchasing Russian oil. It would also be a symbolic setback for Ukrainian and European leaders who have spent months using a unified voice to prod the president to increase pressure on Moscow.

“We’re fairly used to these efforts to undermine European unity, and we know [Trump] likes to deal with leaders one-on-one,” predicted an EU official granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. If Trump grants the exemption, “it may be more of a symbolic setback in terms of the message it sends to Putin and the rest of the world about the lack of resolve to really punish Russia. In reality, it will be harder to achieve.”

After dangling the threat for months, Trump last month finallyimposed additional sanctions on two Russian oil companies when the Kremlin made clear that it still isn’t ready to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. The president, who has criticized European countries for continuing to import Russian oil and gas, hopes that increased economic pressure will eventually push Moscow into peace talks.

Orban has called Trump’s sanctions on Russia a “mistake,” arguing that the country is not ready to abruptly stop its reliance on Moscow’s oil due to economic circumstances. "Hungary is very dependent on Russian oil and gas,” he said last month. “And without them, energy prices will skyrocket, causing shortages in our supplies.”

Trump could be inclined to grant a carve-out for Orban, given his affinity for the populist leader who has seized control of numerous state agencies and tested the resilience of Hungarian democracy.

People in and close to the Trump administration also point to Hungary’s willingness to engage with Russia — making it something of a pariah within NATO and the European Union — and its interest in defending “Western values” as factors in Orban’s favor. Administration officials, including Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, have voiced appreciation for Hungary’s support of Trump’s policies and Orban’s efforts to be a mediator between Ukraine and Russia. Hungarian leaders have propped up Trump unequivocally, and former Trump officials have made clear that Hungary stands to be rewarded for their long-term support, with one prize being a potential peace summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest.

“Holding a summit in Budapest, which would be a prestige event for the Hungarians, and cast them in the role of peacemakers, it would be a benefit for them, and thus ideally incentivize other countries within Europe to tack closer to the administration's line,” said Andrew Peek, Trump’s former senior director for European and Russian affairs at the National Security Council.

Specifically, Hungary has stood out against other European countries for its tough positions on immigration.

Trump and Orban’s relationship remained close during Trump’s years in the political wilderness. “When the president was out of office, the Hungarians and Orban talked about some of the injustices he was facing,” which “resonates rightfully with people in the White House,” Peek said.

Once back in office, Trump has waged a fast and furious assault on the federal bureaucracy and made brazen moves expanding the government’s reach into civil society through pressure campaigns against the media, universities and the private sector. His actions mirror Orban’s in his country more than a decade earlier.

And yet, Orban is making only his first visit to the White House some 10 months into the president’s term — after a number of other European leaders have been there multiple times.

“This ideological affinity hasn’t been all that beneficial to the Hungarians. They haven’t gotten much from this White House,” said Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “There’s an oxymoron in that, yes, it’s an ideology they share, but the ideology is one of national selfishness, so even if you’re aligned in the approach, the ideology says you’re on your own.”

A White House official, granted anonymity to preview the meeting, said there would likely be several “deliverables” announced during the meeting — deals on expanded trade, defense partnerships or possibly sociocultural endeavors.

And while exempting Hungary from new sanctions on Russian oil would be exceedingly complex in practice, requiring new instructions from the Treasury Department and the willingness of financial institutions in Europe to accept them, Trump could still announce a change in policy without warning once he and Orban are seated face to face beside the Oval Office fireplace.

The administration’s love of Hungary has been on display at the highest levels of the State Department. Speaking at a Hungary Embassy event last month, Landau commended Hungary for continuing to have a “relationship” with Russia despite its “history” fighting communism under the Soviet Union.

MAGA world beyond the West Wing has also celebrated Hungary as a model for the future of conservatism. Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts said in a 2022 interview that “modern Hungary is not just a model for conservative statecraft, but the model,” while media personalities like Tucker Carlson have traveled to Budapest to cheer on the government’s focus on keeping Hungary “Christian” by keeping out migrants and enacting pro-natalist policies.

Orban has not extended the same welcome to Ukraine as other countries in Europe. He has been outspoken on vetoing any prospect of Ukraine ever joining the EU – a project that would need unanimous consent by all EU member states. He’s said Ukraine should be in a “strategic partnership” with the EU, but not a member.

Landau also spoke about Hungary’s “values” alignment with the U.S. and the role that plays in their relationship.

“I just want to thank Hungary again for its strong stewardship of Western values of our European heritage at a time when that is under attack, frankly … by forces within Europe, no less, not even to mention the sources outside of Europe,” Landau said at the embassy event commemorating Hungary’s national day.