Poll: Frustration with Trump gives Democrats an opening a year before the midterms

Democrats have an early lead in next year’s battle for control of Congress amid an ongoing government shutdown, as more voters say President Donald Trump has not lived up to their expectations on several major issues that propelled him back to the White House in 2024, according to a new national NBC News poll.

Around two-thirds of registered voters say the Trump administration has fallen short on the economy and the cost of living, and a majority say he’s fallen short on changing business as usual in Washington. At the same time, the Democratic Party continues to suffer from low ratings from voters as it seeks to offer an alternative.

Meanwhile, the issue of protecting democracy and constitutional rights are top issues to voters, alongside costs, as Trump continues an expansive agenda of executive actions on immigration and other key policy areas. And a majority of voters believe he’s done more to undermine the Constitution than defend it.

The president’s overall approval rating in the survey sits at 43%, a 4-point decrease since March, while 55% disapprove of his job performance.

And one year before the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats lead Republicans in the fight for Congress by 8 points, 50%-42%, the largest lead for either party on the congressional ballot in the NBC News poll since the 2018 midterms. Democrats had a negligible 1-point edge, 48%-47%, in the March survey.

“We will learn a lot in just a few days’ time in New Jersey and Virginia, among other elections, and what impact these results may have on the government shutdown,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll along with the Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

“What we know is that this is an electorate that remains deeply unhappy with the status quo,” Horwitt said.

Democrats’ lead on the congressional ballot is among the larger advantages they have enjoyed in any public polling in 2025. This poll was conducted Oct. 24-28, with a majority of respondents (52%) blaming Trump and congressional Republicans for the monthslong government shutdown — but historically high numbers blaming congressional Democrats, too (42%).

One key question that has arisen during past government shutdowns is whether the politics of the moment persist throughout an election cycle, once a funding impasse has been resolved.

Shutdowns can produce “unstable” moments in politics, McInturff said. “And in our experience, they tend to fade away,” he continued.

A majority of voters still have negative views of the Democratic Party, and just 28% say they have positive views, essentially unchanged from a record-low rating in March. And Republicans retain strong advantages with voters on key issues including border security and crime, though Democrats have caught up on the economy.

Voters, particularly Democrats, are also fired up about the next election. Asked to rate their interest in the 2026 elections on a 10-point scale, 66% of voters responded “9” or “10” — higher interest one year out than voters registered in the weeks preceding four of the five recent midterm elections.

For Democrats, 74% rate their interest at “9” or “10,” while 67% of Republicans and 50% of independents say the same. That 7-point enthusiasm edge in the survey is on par with the 9-point enthusiasm edge Democrats enjoyed in the 2018 midterms.

All together, it’s clear Trump is shaping up to be a major factor in next year’s midterm elections, with 70% saying they want their vote to send a message about support for or opposition to the president — the highest number in NBC News polling dating back nearly 30 years. A plurality of voters (40%) say they want their vote to send a signal of opposition to Trump, while 30% say they want to send a signal of support for Trump.

The high election interest and focus on Trump also come as millions of Americans have participated in “No Kings” protests against the Trump administration. In this survey, 43% say they consider themselves supporters of the No Kings protest movement — with the group largely composed of Democrats but also including around 4 in 10 independents.

Economic warning signs

Speaking on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” last December, before he took office, Trump distilled his 2024 victory down to two key factors: “I won on the border, and I won on groceries.”

The new poll numbers show some warning signs for the president on both issues, especially the economy — as well as on a top voter issue of protecting democracy and constitutional rights, too.

On economic issues, sizable majorities of registered voters say Trump and his administration have fallen short of their expectations on the cost of living (66%), looking out for the middle class (65%) and the economy (63%), with approximately one-third saying he has lived up to their expectations.

Majorities of independents, as well as voters across ethnicities, age groups and economic circumstances, all say the Trump administration has fallen short on the economy. A chunk of Republicans also agree, concentrated among those who don’t view themselves as “MAGA Republicans.”

The October 2025 results mirror NBC News’ polling in August 2010, months before midterm elections that were seen as a repudiation of President Barack Obama. At that time, two-thirds of Americans said Obama and his administration had fallen short of their expectations on the economy, as the country struggled through the aftermath of the Great Recession.

Today, 61% say that their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living, while 31% say it’s staying even and only 6% say it’s going up faster than the cost of living — about in line with NBC News polling from the last four years.

How the parties handle different issues

The poll also found voters essentially split on the question of whether Democrats or Republicans would do a better job handling the economy, with 38% backing Republicans and 37% backing Democrats.

That’s the smallest lead Republicans have had on this question in NBC News polling since December 2017, which was the last time Democrats registered an advantage. In September 2023, around the same period in the last election cycle, Republicans had a 21-point edge.

Republicans posted sizable leads on three core issues: border security (a 31-point edge over Democrats), crime (+22 points) and immigration (+18 points), maintaining key advantages they’ve enjoyed in recent elections.

Democrats have an 8-point edge on protecting constitutional rights and an 11-point edge on protecting democracy. That’s a turnaround from 2023, when Republicans had an 8-point lead on the issue of protecting constitutional rights and a 1-point edge on democracy.

And Democrats’ 23-point lead over Republicans on handling health care is tied for their highest mark on the issue since July 2008.

Divides on immigration

While Trump’s Republican Party enjoys significant advantages over Democrats on immigration-related issues, the president’s deportation program — and his administration’s tactics and use of executive power for that program and other goals — have sparked some public dissent.

A narrow majority, 51%, say that Trump has lived up to expectations on border security and immigration.

Yet 54% say that the Trump administration’s “deployment of federal agents and National Guard troops to various cities around the country to fight crime and immigration” are largely not justified, while 44% said that the deployments were justified.

The poll also tests voter sentiment about the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, whose agents are on the front lines of the administration’s deportation program. Thirty-nine percent of registered voters view ICE positively and 50% view it negatively. White voters are split in their view of ICE, while two-thirds of Black and Hispanic voters view the agency negatively.

The share that feels positively about ICE is roughly in line with previous NBC News polls from 2020 and 2018. But the share with negative views has spiked, with those who view the agency “very” negatively nearly doubling since 2020, from 22% then to 40% now.

Constitutional rights and democracy

The issues of protecting constitutional rights and democracy also show up in the poll as top concerns among voters.

The survey asked respondents to rank their most important issues, offering other choices including overall cost of living, electricity and health care costs, political violence, immigration and border security and abortion.

About a quarter of voters said that protecting democracy or constitutional rights was the single most important issue in deciding their congressional vote next year. But costs also loomed large, with 16% choosing cost of living, 10% choosing the cost of health care premiums and 4% choosing the cost of electricity.

Another 10% said immigration and border security are their top issue, while 9% said dealing with political violence and 7% said abortion.

“The fundamentals of our country and democracy, the Constitution, normally these are theoretical things that people don’t think about and take for granted. And it’s pretty clear that Americans are not taking them for granted these days, and that’s true for whether they’re Republicans, Democrats or independents,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.

Fifty-two percent of voters said Trump has done more than previous presidents to undermine the U.S. Constitution than to protect it, while 31% say he’s done more to protect the Constitution.

Dim views of both parties

There are clear opportunities for Democrats in Trump’s polling struggles. But even as they hold leads over Republicans on the congressional ballot and on some key issues, the party’s overall standing hasn’t improved from record lows.

Just 28% of registered voters say they have a positive view of the party, compared to 27% in March, while 53% view the party negatively. The Republican Party has higher marks: 37% view it positively and 46% view it negatively.

As in March, one big difference between the two parties — and one reason why the Democrats have lower marks overall — comes from how voters view their own parties.

Seventy-eight percent of Republicans say they view their party positively and just 8% say they view it negatively. But for Democrats, 59% view their party positively and 22% view it negatively.

Independents, meanwhile, have dim views of both parties, with less than a quarter of those voters holding positive views of either the Democratic or Republican parties.

Gaza peace efforts

The poll also tested views on one of Trump’s major foreign policy efforts: his attempts to broker peace in Gaza, where Israel and Hamas have spent two years at war.

Voters are split on Trump’s handling of the war in general: 47% approve, 48% disapprove. That’s a dramatic improvement from how voters judged then-President Joe Biden’s handling of the war, which was at 34% approval in November 2023 and 27% in April 2024.

But U.S. voters are deeply skeptical that Palestinians and Israelis will be able to form a lasting peace agreement. A previous ceasefire negotiated at the end of the Biden administration fell apart earlier this year, and Israel conducted strikes in Gaza soon after the poll concluded, with Israel and Hamas trading accusations of breaking the current ceasefire.

Just 21% say they think Palestinians and Israelis will form a lasting peace, while 69% say they won’t — as high as that number has been in five instances of this poll question stretching back to 1993. Another 10% are unsure.

When asked about whether U.S. troops should participate in any peacekeeping force in Gaza, 41% say they favor the use of those American boots on the ground while 54% disapprove.

The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters Oct. 24-28 via a mix of telephone interviews and an online survey sent via text message. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com