Poll: Republicans shoulder more shutdown blame, as signs of voter irritation with both parties pile up

Voters say President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress are more to blame for the ongoing government shutdown, according to a new NBC News poll. But their verdict on the spending stalemate includes more blame for Democrats than some past shutdowns, part of a growing collection of data outlining negative views of both parties.

The survey, conducted Oct. 24-28, finds a combined 52% of voters blame Trump and congressional Republicans for the stalemate, while 42% blame Democrats in Congress and 4% blame all of the players.

The share of voters who blame Democrats is the highest for the party when compared to other shutdowns or potential shutdowns measured in NBC News polling over the last 30 years.

Meanwhile, voters’ negative views of the Democratic Party, including among Democrats, are relatively unchanged from record-low ratings in the March NBC News poll. The Republican Party is underwater with voters too, though not to the same degree. And in another poll question, voters responded positively to the idea of booting every member of Congress.

At the same time, the poll also finds that both parties’ core supporters are on their side in the shutdown standoff — perhaps explaining why it has carried on for a month with few signs of a resolution.

The groups most likely to blame Trump and Republicans for the shutdown include core Democratic constituencies like self-described liberals, young voters, those in urban areas, Black voters and higher-educated voters. Those blaming Democrats include self-identified MAGA supporters, white men, and rural and older voters.

“Each party could look at this data and say, ‘Let’s not blink,’” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.

Neither party has blinked yet, as Democrats oppose government funding bills unless a deal is reached to extend expiring health care subsidies.

“Health care, a central focus of the government shutdown debate, is an area where Democrats continue to hold the upper hand,” said Horwitt.

The survey also finds 34% of voters say they or someone in their family have seen their employment, services or benefits affected by the shutdown — the highest share in NBC News polling covering other shutdowns in 2019, 2013, 1996 and 1995.

Those personally affected are also among the voters more likely to blame Republicans for the impasse and align broadly with Democrats, including young women and Black voters, 50% of whom say they have been affected.

“Historically, Republicans are perceived as not being as supportive of government,” said McInturff, also noting the federal layoffs driven by Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency that have driven voter views of his presidency. The Republican pollster added that even though Democratic votes are needed to advance legislation in the Senate thanks to the 60-vote threshold to end debate, voters may broadly view Republicans as controlling the government.

“Given those factors, I think the default for people is that it’s a Republican effort in terms of who gets the blame. … We’ve had 30 years of shutdowns, and this is the highest number of blaming Democrats. So both things can be true at the same time,” McInturff said.

Although voters place more blame on Trump and the GOP for the ongoing shutdown, the survey does find a deep well of ill feeling toward both parties, as well as negative views of members of Congress.

Democrats are 25 points underwater, with just 28% of voters viewing the party positively, near a record-low positive rating of 27% in March. A majority of voters (53%) say they have a negative view of the Democratic Party.

Republicans have a net-negative rating of 9 points, with 46% viewing the party negatively and 37% viewing it positively.

And according to these results, Democrats’ shutdown standoff has not boosted views of the party within their own ranks.

The gap between the two parties’ ratings persists in part because 22% of Democrats say they view their own party negatively, while just 8% of Republicans say the same of the GOP. Back in March, 19% of Democrats said they had negative views of their party.

The new poll also finds 59% of Democrats view their own party positively — unchanged since March. (The remainder said they were neutral or not sure.)

Asked how they would vote if they could choose to defeat and replace every single member of Congress, including their own representatives, 57% of voters say they would vote to do so — the highest share in NBC News polling since October 2013. Forty percent said they would not oust every member of Congress if given the chance.

Similar shares of Democrats (57%) and Republicans (55%), as well as 62% of independents, say they would vote to replace every lawmaker.

The findings come as more candidates consider primary challenges against sitting lawmakers in the 2026 election cycle and as both parties confront the prospect of generational change following the results of the 2024 election.

The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters Oct. 24-28 via a mix of telephone interviews and an online survey sent via text message. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com