Poll: Trump's MAGA base is still behind him — but cracks are showing ahead of 2026

President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains steadily underwater among adults as he nears the end of his first year back in the White House, and he has lost some ground among his “Make America Great Again” base, according to a new NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey.

Trump’s approval has inched down in 2025 amid concern about the economy, while Americans remain worried about inflation and costs after Trump’s campaign promises to ease those anxieties. Respondents’ concerns were apparent in everyday spending decisions like grocery shopping, holiday spending and more, the poll shows.

Other high-profile Trump decisions, including his handling of the controversy over the so-called Jeffrey Epstein files, have scored negatively with Americans. Trump initially opposed a congressional move to force the release of the files before relenting to pressure from both parties last month.

Overall, the poll underlines how the intense support that Trump rode to a second presidential term has weakened — and how the intensity of the opposition to him has grown.

American adults largely disapprove of Trump’s job performance, with his approval rating at 42% and disapproval at 58% in the new poll. That’s a slight approval rating drop of 3 points (from 45%) over the course of four polls since April, the first time the survey was conducted. The new poll surveyed 20,252 adults online, including people registered to vote and not registered to vote, from Nov. 20 to Dec. 8, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.

But underneath this modest decrease in approval are more subtle shifts in the intensity of feelings about the president — both positive and negative.

The share of people who strongly approve of Trump (21%) has dropped over the course of the year (26% in April). Slightly more people now say they strongly disapprove of Trump (44%) compared to April (42%).

MAGA not as ‘strong’ for Trump

Two groups show the largest drop in strong support for the president since April: those who identify as Republican, and, in particular, those who identify with Trump’s MAGA movement.

Among the Republicans who consider themselves more supporters of the Republican Party than the MAGA movement, the share of those who “strongly approve” of Trump now stands at 35%, compared to 38% in April.

Trump’s strong approval is higher among those who consider themselves MAGA Republicans: 70%. But that represents a drop of 8 points (from 78%) since April.

And while 7 in 10 MAGA supporters still say they “strongly approve” of the president’s job performance, fewer Republicans report being part of the MAGA movement compared to earlier this year.

In April, a majority of Republicans reported identifying with the MAGA movement. In this survey, Republicans are evenly split on whether they identify more as traditional supporters of the Republican Party or as MAGA movement members.

Although small, these shifts are notable because Trump has enjoyed tremendous sway over his party in no small part because of his ability to command a core base of support. But in recent months, fractures have emerged.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, once a stalwart of Trump’s MAGA movement, broke publicly with the president and his administration over a number of issues, including what the Georgia Republican saw as a misplaced focus on foreign affairs over domestic policy. Greene has said she identifies now as “America First,” rather than MAGA, and is resigning from Congress early next year.

Meanwhile, elections in November saw Democrats dominate on a message of affordability, underscoring the challenges Republicans may face going into next year’s midterm elections, as allies of the president urge him to do more to speak to economic concerns.

Concerns about the economy and finances

The economy remains the most important issue to Americans right now, and persistent inflation remains a sore spot, even among the president’s supporters, according to the survey.

Those who identify as Republican, including MAGA Republicans, are shifting perspectives slightly when it comes to the economy.

Compared to the last NBC News Decision Desk Poll, in August, both groups were a few percentage points more likely to say their personal finances are worse today compared to one year ago. Those groups were also 6 points more likely to say the country is on the wrong track.

Overall, 64% of Americans overall think the country is on the wrong track, up from 60% in the beginning of the year.

That finding holds across most groups, but the groups shifting their views in a negative direction may also be among the most consequential in next year’s midterm elections: people who voted for Trump in 2024, people with a high school education or less, people who are 65 and over (especially older women), and Black and Hispanic Americans.

Different economic priorities by income

While the majority of Americans express concerns about the overall state of the economy, the top and bottom of the income distribution are not experiencing the same levels of worry — or showing their worry in the same way.

Overall, 41% said that their personal financial situation is about the same as it was a year ago. Another 35% said it’s worse today and 24% said it’s better.

However, 45% of those making less than $50,000 said their finances are worse today, compared to only a quarter of those who make over $100,000.

Similarly, while 31% of the highest earners reported being in a better financial position than a year ago, only 16% of the lowest earners said they’re better off today.

Americans with incomes under $50,000 cited the cost of housing and food as the biggest economic problems facing them and their families. The cost of health insurance and planning for retirement, meanwhile, were the biggest economic problems picked by those making over $100,000.

As a result of recent economic conditions, a majority of Americans reported needing to change what groceries they buy in order to stay within their budget, and a majority also said they had personally cut back spending on extras and entertainment to afford necessities.

Those with incomes under $50,000 were more likely — by double digits — to say they’ve cut back on groceries, extras and entertainment, and even holiday spending, compared to those with incomes over $100,000.

And while 69% of higher earners said they are personally affected by what happens in the stock market, 58% of lower earners said the stock market doesn’t affect them much or at all.

Over half of all Americans (53%) said they trust the Democratic Party over the Republican Party (47%) when it comes to handling the rising price of everyday things. The majority opinion on that question is consistent across traditionally Democratic groups whose turnout will be critical to the party’s prospects in the 2026 elections: African Americans (77%), women (61%), Latinos (60%), young people (59%) and independents (55%).

The NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey surveyed 20,252 adults online from Nov. 20 to Dec. 8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com