Republican midterm convention will be ‘Trumpist pageantry’ - at the party’s own risk

It seemed like a good idea at the time. In December 1978, Jimmy Carter, a US president besieged by inflation and energy crises, watched as thousands of Democrats descended on Memphis, Tennessee, for a rare midterm convention.

“It was wild,” recalls Elaine Kamarck, who attended as a 28-year-old working for the Democratic National Committee. “It became a forum for Ted Kennedy to informally announce his opposition to president Carter. There was a lot of hostility to the president there. The Democrats have sworn ever since never to do anything this stupid again.”

The 1978 convention took place after midterm elections in which Democrats suffered losses but still maintained control of the House of Representatives and Senate. The party also held midterm conventions in 1974 and 1982. Kamarck, who later served in the Bill Clinton administration, adds: “The Democratic party has never thought of doing this again and, whenever it has, people like me say, ‘No, are you absolutely crazy?’”

Republicans, however, did not get the memo. This week in Dallas, Texas, the party will stage a midterm convention for the first time. Donald Trump will deliver a keynote address on Wednesday and closing remarks on Thursday in Dallas, Texas. Other speakers include Vice-President JD Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Attorney General Todd Blanche, Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr and the president’s son Donald Trump Jr. The convention has been billed as a “primetime showcase” to boost morale, nationalise congressional elections and galvanise Republican voters.

But success is far from guaranteed. The made-for-TV spectacle clashes directly with the two opening games of the American football season. A Politico website survey of more than 70 Republican candidates and members found 45 who either do not plan to go to Dallas or are still thinking about it. Some cited prior commitments while others balked at the $25,000 price of attending.

Unlike conventions in a presidential election year, delegates will not be making party rules or drawing up a policy platform. “This is essentially a Trump rally that they’re calling a midterm convention,” said Kamarck, now a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution thinktank in Washington. “They’re trying to get enthusiasm among their base because that’s what they need for November. Basically, this is a Trump show.”

That ambition probably made sense when the midterm convention was first mooted. Republican voters are historically slow to turn out when Trump is not on the ballot. By putting himself on the marquee, the president – who defied the odds to win the White House in 2024 – is hoping to narrow the enthusiasm gap.

Among those hoping for a boost from Trump in Texas is Senate candidate Ken Paxton, whose history of scandals – including an affair and securities-fraud indictment – could prove costly against the Democratic rising star James Talarico.

But now it appears the plan could backfire. Trump’s approval rating is ‌at 33%, the lowest point of his political career, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll last week. Democrats seem more fired up about the midterms with 46% describing themselves as “very enthusiastic” ​about voting in November, compared with 31% of Republicans.

Tara Setmayer, a former Republican communications director on Capitol Hill, warns that building a midterm convention around a failing president is tantamount to “political suicide”.

“It is an incredibly risky strategy for any Republican at this point to hitch his wagon to Donald Trump,” she explained. “On every issue that Trump was once strong on he is underwater, from the economy to immigration.”

Setmayer, co-founder of the political action committee the Seneca Project, added: “The idea that he’s going to excite people is flawed at this point, given the polling numbers in Donald Trump’s own constituency. They’re not inspired and this vanity convention is not going to change that with 60 days to go to the election. If anything, it’s going to remind people of how dissatisfied they are under Donald Trump’s second term.”

There are further signs that the president could be more of a curse than a blessing. Some candidates are quietly scrubbing his likeness from their websites in a tactical retreat. In Texas, candidate Carlos De La Cruz replaced “TRUMP CONSERVATIVE” with “PROVEN CONSERVATIVE” on his homepage, erasing a line about being “ready to be President Trump’s wingman in Congress” for a platitude about “servant leaders”.

In Kentucky, Ralph Alvarado pivoted to “INDEPENDENT LEADERSHIP”. In Nevada, Martin O’Donnell, a music composer best known for his work on the Halo video game series, no longer features his Trump endorsement photo on his website. In south Texas, Eric Flores replaced “SUPPORT PRESIDENT TRUMP’S AGENDA” with “LOWER THE COST OF LIVING”. In Alaska, Nick Begich edited his homepage to a simple: “We have delivered for Alaska.”

Elsewhere, candidates are actively breaking ranks. The Wisconsin congressman and gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany publicly rebuked Trump’s renaming of Lake Ontario as “Lake America” and opposed importing cheaper ground beef. The Michigan congressman Tom Barrett is campaigning on his votes to limit Trump’s war in Iran, highlighting his support for the War Powers Resolution.

Trump, however, appears unmoved and indifferent. Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, said: “He doesn’t care about any of these other candidates. He only cares about two things when it comes to the midterms: one, that he won’t be investigated and two, that he can get his appointments through the Senate. He demands loyalty for everyone else and gives loyalty to no one.”

A Republican source said at least 100 members of Congress were expected to attend the convention and more than 20,000 tickets had been distributed, ensuring a packed arena.

The source denied that Trump would dominate proceedings, insisting that the convention would aim to “energise our base, inform folks there is an election and highlight the contrast between what Republicans are offering – which is a secure border, safe communities, cutting taxes, giving Americans more freedom – and what the Democrats are offering, which is reopening the borders, repealing the tax cuts, investigating, obstructing, impeaching President Trump and not having an agenda beyond that”.

The source also rejected reports that Republican candidates were distancing themselves from the president, saying: “We have Republican candidates across the country who want the president in their districts. You see it with Mike Lawler, who’s one of two Republicans left in Congress still in a district that Kamala Harris won in 2024. I believe the president has campaigned for him in his district twice. Mike Lawler does a very good job of embracing the president’s policies. He deviates on certain issues when needed.”

The convention schedule will also aim to steady the ship. The first night will include segments focused on tax cuts, healthcare affordability, the border, trade and domestic manufacturing, with appearances by “workers and everyday Americans”.

The second will highlight families benefiting from policies like no taxes on tips, overtime and social security, as well as overseas prisoners who have been released, border security, efforts to lower prescription drug costs and a tribute to the slain rightwing activist Charlie Kirk.

The convention will also try to appeal to the “Maha” – or Make America healthy again – wing of the party, with a segment targeting corporate influence in the treatment of chronic diseases. And it will mark the 25th anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks with families of first responders.

But the program makes no mention of any programming related to foreign policy or the deeply unpopular war in Iran.

Lichtman observed: “People aren’t buying what they have to say, which is things are getting better, it’s the golden age, prices are coming down, we’re winning the Iranian war, our immigration policy is great. They’re not gonna buy it just because it’s a convention. Plus, as we know, Trump always goes off script and that’s never helpful to his party.”

But Republicans do seem to believe they have an ace up their sleeves. Trump and his allies are expected to go in hard on a theme pointing to the primary election successes of democratic socialists and casting Democrats as godless communists and Marxists who pose an existential threat to the American way of life.

Charlie Sykes, a conservative broadcaster and author of How the Right Lost Its Mind, said: “The midterms will either be a referendum on Donald Trump, in which case they will be disastrous for the Republicans, or Republicans will hope that they can make this a referendum on the radicalism of Democrats, so I’m guessing that will be a major theme.

“The big question is, who is going to be paying any attention to this? Who is going to be watching this other than the hardcore base, the already convinced? I have a very hard time imagining independent voters tuning in to see the Trumpist pageantry.”

But commentators believe that the convention, with its potential to draw primetime TV viewers and generate viral clips, could make a difference in the margins. Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said: “It might increase Maga’s turnout. That’s the only positive in this thing potentially for Republicans.

“It’s not going to change any minds but it might convince the Maga people, ‘Well, I don’t normally vote when our hero is not on the ballot but if this is what Donald wants me to do, I’m going to pitch in and help.’ But it’s not going to help that much.”

The midterm convention could have an intriguing subplot. Along with Vance, the Texas senator Ted Cruz and other potential 2028 presidential contenders will be in attendance for what could be an early audition. Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center thinktank in Washington, said: “Anybody who looks in the mirror and sees a president looking back at him or her, if those people are speakers, it will be a chance for them to make an impression.”

Such aspirants would be wise to tread carefully, however, since Trump is not likely to cede the limelight willingly. Sykes added: “It is a Trump-a-palooza and once again Donald Trump insists on being – what was the old phrase about Teddy Roosevelt? – the bride at every wedding and the corpse at every funeral.

“He wants to make the midterms all about himself despite the fact that he’s reaching the Nixon line in terms of polling unpopularity. It’s very much on brand except that right now, with every day we get closer to the midterms, Trump’s narcissism becomes a greater challenge to Republicans who want to survive what looks like a blue wave.”