Republicans and a conservative think tank sound the alarm over Trump's tariffs

As the economic repercussions from President Trump’s sweeping tariffs continue to unfold, some members of his own party are warning that a prolonged trade war could cost Republicans control of Congress.

Last week, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas said on his podcast that if Trump kept his tariffs in place it could result in “a recession, particularly a bad recession — 2026 in all likelihood politically would be a bloodbath.”

“You would face a Democrat House, and you might even face a Democrat Senate,” Cruz said.

In an interview on Friday with Fox News Business, Cruz explained his opposition to Trump’s tariffs.

"Tariffs are a tax on consumers, and I'm not a fan of jacking up taxes on American consumers, so my hope is these tariffs are short-lived, and they serve as leverage to lower tariffs across the globe," Cruz said, adding, "If we're in a scenario 30 days from now, 60 days from now, 90 days from now with massive American tariffs and massive tariffs on American goods in every other country on Earth, it's a terrible outcome."

Another staunch Trump supporter turned critic is Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.

“Tariffs are taxes and Americans are paying the price. From $5,000 hikes on cars to $10,000 more for a new home and 70 cents more per gallon of gas,” Paul wrote Friday in a message posted to X.

Paul also took issue with Trump’s declaration of a national emergency in order to implement the tariffs without input from Congress.

“I don't want to live under emergency rule. I don't want to live where my representatives cannot speak for me and have a check and balance on power," Paul said in a speech on the Senate floor, adding, "One person can make a mistake and guess what — tariffs are a terrible mistake."

Last week, Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa cosponsored a bipartisan Senate bill with Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell that seeks to limit a president’s ability to unilaterally impose tariffs. Four other Republican senators — Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Jerry Moran of Kansas and Thom Tillis of North Carolina — also added their names to the list of sponsors.

On Monday, the White House said in a statement obtained by Politico that Trump would veto the bill if it made it to his desk.

“If passed, this bill would dangerously hamper the president’s authority and duty to determine our foreign policy and protect our national security,” the White House said in a statement.

Checking Trump’s math

In a piece published Friday, the conservative think tank American Enterprise Institute noted that the formula Trump’s team used to determine the tariffs it would impose on U.S. trading partners was riddled with errors.

“President Trump described the tariffs as reciprocal, equal to half of the rate of tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers imposed by other countries. However, they are nothing of the sort. The tariff the United States is placing on other countries is equal to the US trade deficit divided by US imports from a given country, divided by two, or 10 percent, whichever rate is higher,” the authors wrote, adding, “The formula for the tariffs, originally credited to the Council of Economic Advisers and published by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, does not make economic sense.”

Several other observers came to the same conclusion, including CNBC reporter Steve Liesman.

“Nobody ever heard of this formula. Nobody has ever used this formula,” Liesman said on Thursday. “I’m sorry, but the conclusion seems to be [that] the president kinda made this up as he went along.”

A ‘tax hike’ on Americans

With the stock market wiping out more than $6 trillion in value in response to tariffs that, economists warn, will raise the price of goods in the United States, the abiding Republican criticism of the plan was that the tariffs would be paid by American consumers.

Mike Pence, Trump’s former vice president, railed against the president’s tariffs in a post on social media, calling them “the largest peacetime tax hike in U.S. history,” and said that they “will cost American families over $3,500 per year.”

Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro also hit Trump using the same argument.

“Yesterday, President Trump declared that it was, in fact, ‘Liberation Day,’” Shapiro said in a video posted to social media. “His giant tariff that he just dropped on the market unilaterally, probably unconstitutionally. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs impose hundreds of billions of dollars in new taxes on Americans.”

Even Trump adviser Elon Musk saw fit to warn against the developing trade war.

“At the end of the day, I hope it’s agreed that both Europe and the United States should move ideally, in my view, to a zero-tariff situation, effectively creating a free-trade zone between Europe and North America,” Musk said in an interview with Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister, over the weekend.

For now, anyway, Trump is not budging on the tariffs. In fact, on Monday he threatened escalate the trade war with China, writing in a post on Truth Social that “if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th.”