Republicans bet big on Latino voters in redistricted Texas

Texas Republicans are betting big on their recent gains with Latino voters, releasing new congressional maps that heavily favor the GOP and create four red, majority-Hispanic districts in the process.

Wednesday’s issuance of the redrawn lines is touching off a fierce partisan battle over the ethics of mid-decade redistricting, forcing Democrats to respond to President Donald Trump’s aggressive action in Texas. It’s also exposing the importance each party is placing on one of the most coveted demographics in the country as they fight for control over the House next year.

The GOP’s maps indicate the party is bullish on Latino voters continuing their rightward political shift even without Trump atop the ballot. It’s a move that doubles down on a strategy Republicans were already implementing across the country, targeting heavily-Hispanic House districts as they seek to capitalize on their recent gains with a group of voters who have the power to carry them to a majority come 2026. In 2024, 48 percent of Hispanic voters cast their ballots for Trump, compared to 36 percent in 2020, according to Pew Research.

“Hispanic communities are sick and tired of radical Democrats turning their backs on them time and again,” said National Republican Congressional Committee Hispanic press secretary Christian Martinez.

The strategy comes with a lot of risk.

Despite shifting toward Trump last year, Latino voters — in Texas and elsewhere — were more likely to split their tickets and back downballot Democrats. And polls show voters have soured on Trump’s handling of the economy, after inflation under former President Joe Biden drove Latino support for Trump last year.

“Trump had the shortest honeymoon ever with these voters,” said Republican strategist Mike Madrid, who published a book last year on Latino voters. “It lasted a couple of months, but the day he started talking about tariffs and started rattling financial markets and everything that Latinos were voting for him on, which was overwhelming affordability and economic issues, they moved away from him just as rapidly as they moved away from Joe Biden for the exact same reasons.”

Six of the 13 congressional districts that went for Trump and a House Democrat in 2024 were at least 40 percent Latino, including two in Texas represented by Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar. Texas Republicans redrew those two districts in the proposed overhaul, replacing them with ones that have a slightly-higher Trump bend.

Trump outperformed Republicans among Latino voters throughout Texas last year. Across counties that were at least 75 percent Hispanic, Trump ran 8.6 points ahead of Sen. Ted Cruz, indicating Latino voters were more likely to cast their ballots for both Cruz’s Democratic rival, Colin Allred, and Trump.

If Latino voters show similar openness to downballot Democrats candidates without Trump on the ballot next year, it could spell trouble for Republicans. The redrawn 28th and 34th districts, which are 90 percent and 77 percent Latino respectively, backed Trump by more than 10 points last year. But Allred came within 0.2 points in the 28th and 2 points in the 34th. (In his 2022 gubernatorial bid, Beto O’Rourke would have won the 28th and lost the 34th by 1 point.)

The new 35th district, which includes part of Bexar County along with solidly-Republican areas east of San Antonio, is 53 percent Latino and supported Trump by 10 points and Cruz by just under 4 points.

The pending map, drawn by Republicans at the urging of Trump and GOP Gov. Greg Abbott, could be changed before Aug. 19, when the state Legislature is expected to recess for the remainder of the summer.

Democratic strategists are warning that Republicans erred by basing their designs on Trump voters.

“[Republicans] are confusing the gains that Trump the individual made with support for the Republican Party,” said Matt Barreto, who polled Latino voters for the Biden-Harris campaign and testified during a Texas redistricting hearing. “There is a Trump effect that is not transferable to Republicans.”

Polling shows some Latinos have soured on Trump, especially his handling of the economy, which ranked as a leading issue for voters last year.

“In Texas in particular, Hispanic voters are more loyal to their paychecks and Texas than they are to a party,” said Dan Sena, a former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “That’s part of the appeal of Trump. But when he’s not on the ticket, some of that support erodes.”

The proposed seats do not present easy pickup opportunities for Democrats, either. Madrid, the Republican strategist, said Democrats should work on their own message after several consecutive elections of losing ground.

“Where Democrats failed in the past is not having an aspirational, uplifting economic agenda,” he said. “Latinos don’t believe that Democrats deliver to working class people. They have to get back to a working class economic message that’s not just about government spending.”

J.C. Polanco, an attorney and independent political analyst based in New York City, said that Latino’s shifts to Trump are a reflection of Democrats’ moving to the left. “We’re going to see a lot of that as Republicans realize Latinos have a disdain for socialism,” Polanco said.

GOP vote share among Hispanics has steadily increased in recent years, going from 29 percent in 2018 to 43 percent in 2024, according to Catalist data. Republicans point to that data as reason to think that even without Trump on the ballot, Latinos will still vote for the party.

Even as some of Trump’s support among the population erodes, Democrats are yet to win them back, as the party continues to face low favorability across the board.

It will be up to both parties to make a convincing pitch ahead of next year’s midterms.

“Everything we know about Latino voters tells us that they are highly persuadable and have in the last few election cycles made decisions based on who they believe will address their economic concerns and priorities,” said Melissa Morales, president of Somos Votantes, a Democratic-aligned group that focuses on Latino voters.