Republicans Win Control Of The Senate

Republicans are projected to win control of the U.S. Senate in a huge blow to Democrats who were dragged down by perceptions of the economy and an unpopular incumbent in the White House. 

At least two states will have a new Republican senator ― Jim Justice in West Virginia and Bernie Moreno in Ohio. A handful of other races are still too close to call, but the GOP majority could yet grow to 55 seats in the upper chamber.

With a new majority, Republicans will have an opportunity to extend Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts when they expire at the end of next year and appoint more conservatives to the federal judiciary, including the Supreme Court. They will also have tremendous influence over what the next president’s Cabinet and administration is going to look like.

“Voters are trusting Senate Republicans with an extraordinary opportunity,” Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said in a statement. “As a new Republican Senate majority, our focus will be to take on an agenda that reflects America’s priorities — lower prices, less spending, secure borders, and American energy dominance.”

The change in power is a massive win for Montana’s Republican Sen. Steve Daines, who, as chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, went to painstaking lengths early on to ally himself with Trump and ensure the former president endorsed preferred GOP candidates, avoiding critical missteps that cost the party a majority in the 2022 midterms.

Still, the GOP was long favored to win a majority this year due to the number of swing state incumbent Democrats up for reelection and the challenging political environment for their party amid voter discontent over the cost of living, immigration, and President Joe Biden’s record in office. Alarmed by his crashing poll numbers after a devastating debate with Donald Trump in July, Democrats pushed Biden out of the race and coalesced around Kamala Harris. But the vice president struggled to distance herself from her boss, giving Republican candidates plenty of fodder for attack ads in the final months of the race. 

The map this cycle was also heavily stacked against Democrats, who were defending a narrow 51-49 majority and playing defense in Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Republicans also lucked out with now-independent West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s decision to retire, paving the way for an easy victory in the race to replace him by Justice, the West Virginia GOP governor. 

Republicans spent hundreds of millions of dollars seeking to oust Democratic incumbents in Montana and Ohio, two red states where Trump is overwhelmingly popular. Data from political ad tracking firm AdImpact projected that more than $2.5 billion was spent on advertising in Senate races in this campaign cycle, slightly more than the 2022 total. The bulk of the spending — more than $1 billion — came down to just three states: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana. 

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) lost his bid for reelection in Ohio on Tuesday, while Sen. Jon Tester (D-Montana) is struggling in his bid for reelection against Republican Tim Sheehy in Montana.

Republicans went all in on messaging about immigration, accusing Democrats of not doing enough to toughen security at the U.S.-Mexico border. Their ads often veered into fearmongering about immigrants, falsely casting migrants seeking to enter the U.S. as an “invasion” of the country. High inflation was another big theme in GOP ads, as were trans issues. The party spent tens of millions of dollarson ads attacking Democrats over support for transgender athletes and gender-affirming care for kids.

Democrats, meanwhile, focused much of their messaging on the fight for reproductive rights and the threat of a national abortion ban under a GOP-controlled Senate, a playbook that proved effective in the 2022 midterm elections. They countered GOP ads on immigration by attacking Republicans for killing a bipartisan bill at the behest of Trump earlier this year that would have provided more security at the border. And they touted their long list of legislative accomplishments, including investments in infrastructure and manufacturing, as well as lowering the cost of some prescription drugs, such as insulin.

What Democrats didn’t feature in campaign ads: Biden, who opted not to run for reelection over the summer after questions surfaced about his health and stamina. His decision to endorse Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee gave his party a fighting chance in November, but his “garbage” comments late in the race also handed Republican candidates a political gift.

Both parties sought upset victories in the race for the Senate. Democrats made a play for Texas and Florida, hoping to unseat incumbent Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott. They also cheered on independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn, who gave GOP Sen. Deb Fischer a scare in ruby-red Nebraska but is likely to lose, of all places. Meanwhile, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan’s (R) campaign against Democrat Angela Alsobrooks for the seat there caused consternation among Democrats and forced them to spend resources in the blue Democratic stronghold. But Alsobrooks easily won the race. 

The GOP’s Senate majority will be led by a new face next year. Mitch McConnell, the longest-serving Senate leader in history, is stepping down from his position. Republicans will select his replacement in a closed-door election next week from a list of three candidates: Senate Minority Whip John Thune (S.D.), Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) and Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.).

See full results from the Senate election here.