Takeaways from Texas' primaries: Trump's power, Latino vote, redistricting and more

Talarico, Trump react to Paxton's massive win against Cornyn in Texas 06:46

Washington — The November ballot in Texas is now set, after a four-term incumbent Republican senator lost to a Trump-endorsed challenger in Tuesday's primary runoffs. Meanwhile, Texas Democrats are angling to win their first Senate race since 1988.

The Senate race was just one storyline on Tuesday night, as many downballot primary races highlighted larger themes seen throughout the country for both Democrats and Republicans.

Here are some of the top takeaways from Tuesday's election:

Power of Trump's endorsement

Republican Sen. John Cornyn fell to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a GOP primary runoff, losing the Senate seat he has held for 24 years by a 27-percentage-point margin.

One decisive factor in the race: A week beforehand, President Trump backed Paxton.

While Cornyn frequently stressed on the campaign trail that he has voted with Mr. Trump over 99% of the time, the longtime Texas senator questioned Mr. Trump's electability after his first term in office. In his endorsement of Cornyn's opponent, Mr. Trump said "John Cornyn is a good man, and I worked well with him, but he was not supportive of me when times were tough." By comparison, the president called Paxton a "true MAGA Warrior" and stressed his loyalty.

Many establishment Republicans had seen Cornyn as a stronger candidate to take on the Democratic nominee, Texas state Rep. James Talarico, in the general election. Talarico did not face a runoff on Tuesday after he won a majority of the vote in the first round of the primaries in March.

Cornyn previously served as the No. 2 Senate Republican, and was among a handful of men who were considered for majority leader in 2024 year. His colleagues in the Senate lauded Cornyn as a prolific fundraiser and legislator. Last week, after Mr. Trump endorsed Paxton, Senate Majority Leader John Thune called Cornyn a "principled conservative" and a "very effective senator for the state of Texas."

Paxton's victory shakes up Senate GOP

Paxton's projected victory marks a major blow to Senate Republican leadership, who spent months supporting Cornyn.

Republicans currently have a narrow 53-seat majority in the Senate. Democrats face a challenging path to winning over the upper chamber — they need to net four new Senate seats to retake the majority, and they're defending two seats in states that the president won in 2024.

While a handful of states offer more straightforward pathways to flip seats, Democrats are once again looking hopefully at the Lone Star State. The Cook Political Report said with Paxton as the nominee, Texas becomes competitive, shifting its rating from likely to leaning Republican.

Asked whether Mr. Trump's endorsement of Paxton makes it harder for Republicans to hold onto the Senate, Thune said at a news conference last week: "One state doesn't determine the outcome of this election, but obviously we care about every state and we care about helping see our incumbents succeed."

Even before November, Paxton's nomination could change the dynamic in the Senate, as Cornyn becomes the latest Republican scorned by the president.

Cornyn may be more inclined to break with the administration now, a tendency that Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Thom Tillis of North Carolina have exemplified in recent months. Cassidy lost his primary to a Trump-backed candidate, and Tillis declined to seek reelection after the president threatened a primary challenge.

Already, the president's move to endorse Paxton over Cornyn has seemed to impact the GOP agenda, adding fuel to a heated meeting between Senate Republicans and Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche last week that ended with GOP leaders scrapping plans to vote on funding for immigration enforcement agencies.

Paxton brings a controversial past

Paxton's primary victory showed his ability to withstand a history of scandals. But if he defeats Talarico and wins the Senate seat, he will arrive at the Capitol with significant baggage.

Paxton was first elected as Texas attorney general in 2014. He aggressively sued the Obama administration early in his tenure, and later said he filed more than 100 lawsuits against the Biden administration. His then-wife, Angela Paxton, sang a song on the campaign trail with the lyrics: "I'm a pistol-packing mama whose husband sues Obama."

He also filed a lawsuit to overturn Mr. Trump's 2020 election losses in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Wisconsin. The case was tossed by the Supreme Court.

In 2015, Paxton was indicted on securities fraud charges, but they were dropped in 2024 as part of a pre-trial diversion deal. In 2023, he was impeached on charges of bribery, dereliction of duty and disregard of official duties by the GOP-majority Texas House in a 121-23 vote, including more than 60 members of his own party and all five representatives from his home area of Collin County. He was accused of firing four whistleblowers and then using the state funds to pay court-ordered restitution.

Paxton was also accused of using his position to secure a job and apartment for a woman with whom he was having an affair, and although Angela Paxton, then a state senator, stood by his side at the trial, she later filed for divorce. In the divorce filings, she cited "biblical grounds" as the reason for divorce, including infidelity.

Paxton was acquitted by the state Senate, and his office will still have to pay at least $6.7 million to the four whistleblowers. According to the Associated Press, the Biden Justice Department in its final days quietly dropped an investigation into Paxton.

Paxton has consistently denied all wrongdoing.

Meanwhile, Paxton has sought to cast Talarico as a far-left candidate, labeling him "James Tala-freak-o" and highlighting previous remarks by the Democrat, including a speech in which he said "God is nonbinary."

Talarico acknowledged in a CBS News interview Wednesday that some of his past comments "missed the mark," but accused Paxton of "intentionally clipping my cringey comments to distract from his career of corruption."

MAGA Republicans overtake establishment GOP figures

Candidates aligned with the president's MAGA movement notched wins against the establishment wing of the Republican party on Tuesday — starting with the Senate GOP primary.

Cornyn represents a different generation of Texas Republicans, having first been elected as attorney general in 1998, when George W. Bush was governor. Bush's successor as governor, Rick Perry, had campaigned heavily for Cornyn, and Cornyn touted endorsements from many in the old guard of Texas Republicans.

Paxton called Cornyn a member of the establishment and not sufficiently MAGA-aligned, and Paxton won the most important endorsement: from Mr. Trump.

The state's current crop of elected Republicans mostly stayed out of the race, with Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Sen. Ted Cruz endorsing before Tuesday's runoff. But they all congratulated Paxton on his win on Tuesday night and urged Republicans to come together.

In the Republican primary runoff to replace Paxton as state attorney general, state Rep. Mayes Middleton successfully painted U.S. Rep. Chip Roy as an establishment candidate who was insufficiently supportive of Mr. Trump. Roy, a member of the House Freedom Caucus and one of the most conservative Republicans in Congress, had sometimes broken with Mr. Trump, notably after the 2020 election.

Former Tarrant County Commissioner Bo French defeated incumbent Jim Wright in a GOP primary runoff for railroad commissioner. French's campaign focused less on the job itself — which regulates the oil and gas industry, not railroads — and more on his loyalty to Mr. Trump. He pledged to use the office to fight "DEI, overbearing regulation, and the influence of radical Islam and the [Chinese Communist Party] in Texas oil."

Importance of Latino voters

Latino voters are emerging as perhaps the most important voting bloc in Texas' Senate race, and both parties are pouring resources into winning them over ahead of November.

Latinos now make up roughly 40% of Texas' population, the largest ethnic group in the state, and their shifting political support from a reliably Democratic group to one that leans slightly toward Republicans has been an earthquake in Texas politics. During the 2024 cycle, Mr. Trump made historic inroads with Hispanics and won roughly 55% of Latino voters in Texas, according to exit polling. The president captured about 48% of Latino voters nationwide, a 12-point shift from 2020.

The shift was most evident in South Texas, where Mr. Trump carried all four counties (Hidalgo, Cameron, Starr and Willacy) in the Rio Grande Valley near the U.S.-Mexico border after failing to win even 30% of the vote there during his 2016 campaign.

But there are signs Democrats are regaining some footing with Latino voters. During the March primary, Texas Democrats more than doubled turnout in the Rio Grande Valley compared to 2024 levels, and recent polling from Texas Public Opinion Research showed Democratic nominee Talarico holds a sizable advantage among Latino voters over Paxton.

The same polling found cost-of-living concerns, and not immigration or border security, rank as the top issue for Texas Latinos, mirroring top concerns across the state and national landscape.

If Democrats can improve their margins with Latino voters, it could widen their narrow path towards a potential upset in Texas, where they have not won statewide since 1994. For Texas Republicans, keeping this swing voting group inside Mr. Trump's 2024 tent, without him atop the ticket, may determine whether the party keeps this crucial Senate seat in their column.

Redistricting wars pit Democrats against each other

The mid-decade redistricting wars between both parties started in Texas last summer, when Mr. Trump asked state Republicans to redraw their House map to be more friendly to the GOP. The move left some Democrats scrambling as some found themselves in GOP-leaning districts or in the same district as another incumbent. The fallout could be seen in Tuesday's results.

The deep-blue 35th District now leans red, leading to an open Democratic primary in the San Antonio-area district after progressive Rep. Greg Casar decided to run for a different seat. Housing advocate and sex therapist Maureen Galindo was the top vote-getter in the March primary, but ahead of Tuesday's runoff, she came under fire for making statements that members of both parties rebuked as antisemitic. She lost to Johnny Garcia, who will face Republican Carlos De La Cruz in November.

Longtime Rep. Marc Veasey's Fort Worth-area 33rd District was also affected by redistricting, and although it is still a Democratic-friendly seat, he decided not to run for reelection. Incumbent Rep. Julie Johnson, whose district had become more favorable to Republicans, opted to run instead in the 33rd District. But on the day of the filing deadline, Johnson's predecessor in the House, former Rep. Colin Allred, filed to run against her.

Allred was the top vote-getter in March but did not get enough votes to avoid a runoff against Johnson, lengthening an already nasty race. Given the district's Democratic lean, Allred is favored to win in November after defeating Johnson on Tuesday.

And in Houston, longtime Rep. Al Green — known as a frequent Trump antagonist — was also drawn into a more Republican-friendly district. He opted instead to run in the nearby 18th District, a safe Democratic seat, challenging a newcomer to Congress, Rep. Christian Menefee. Menefee prevailed over Green on Tuesday, and is favored to win in November.

Democratic factions still causing conflicts

In the newly created 18th District, 78-year-old Green lost to 38-year-old Menefee, who was first elected earlier this year to replace Rep. Sylvester Turner, who died at age 70 one month after being elected. Turner himself had been elected to replace longtime Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, who died at the age of 74 in July 2024.

Green has been in Congress since 2005, and has long been a face for Democratic causes. He has introduced articles of impeachment against Mr. Trump in both his terms, and was censured by the House for interrupting Mr. Trump's address before a joint session in 2025. Several Democrats joined with Republicans for the censure vote.

Before serving in Congress, Menefee was already a rising star in the Democratic party — he was the first Black attorney and the youngest-ever person to be elected as Harris County Attorney, the civil litigator for the largest county by population in Texas.

There are different dynamics playing out in the 33rd District, where Johnson and Allred are facing off and representing different identities of the Democratic party. Johnson, who is White, is the first openly LGBT person to be elected to the House from the South, while Allred, who is Black, is a former NFL player and civil rights attorney. The diverse district, while heavily Democratic, is 55% Hispanic, 22% White and 15% Black, according to the Texas Tribune.

In the Senate Democratic primary in March, Talarico had faced off against Rep. Jasmine Crockett, also of Dallas, after Allred dropped out of the race. Allred had weighed in on that race after an influencer alleged Talarico called him a "mediocre Black man," which Talarico denied. Allred then endorsed Crockett, and Crockett has been campaigning with Allred. Talarico, meanwhile, campaigned with Johnson last week.

Accusations of antisemitism on the rise

Both Democratic and Republican candidates in Texas have faced allegations of antisemitism.

Galindo made national headlines after she pledged to turn an immigration detention facility into a "prison for American Zionists" if elected. In other social media posts, she argued that "billionaire Zionists" belong in prison and that "Zionist associated candidates and politicians" deserve "treason trials." Galindo has denied being antisemitic, but said she is "against Zionist Jews."

Democrats in Texas and D.C. distanced themselves from Galindo, while also accusing Republican-aligned groups of propping up her candidacy.

And French, who won Tuesday's runoff for railroad commissioner, had previously posted on social media a poll asking whether Jews or Muslims are "a bigger threat to America."

French's opponent, incumbent Texas Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright, had received $500,000 from Texas Sands PAC, a group financed by casino magnate Miriam Adelson, which he said "underscores Bo French's hateful attacks on the Jewish people and his repeated anti-Semitic rhetoric. Dr. Adelson and I stand firmly with the state of Israel, and I join conservative leaders across Texas in condemning his ignorant bigotry."