Tariffs and a possible recession: updates from week 7 of Trump administration

9 March 2025Day 48

Trump declined to the rule out the possibility that the US economy could fall into a recession and that inflation could rise as uncertainty continued over his tariffs policy. “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big,” he told Fox News.

Trucks prepare to cross the US-Canada border at the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor, Ontario, on 8 March. Photograph: Geoff Robins/AFP/Getty Images

Also on Sunday: On Ukraine, the president told reporters on board Air Force One that the US had “just about ended” its suspension of intelligence with the country and said he expected good results ahead of forthcoming talks with Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia.

8 March 2025Day 47

Donald Trump insisted Musk and Rubio, the US secretary of state, had a “great relationship” after the New York Times reported details of the pair facing off in an angry exchange during the cabinet meeting called to clear the air over “department of government efficiency” (Doge) cuts.

“There is no clash,” Trump wrote in a social media post, despite Musk having reportedly lambasted Rubio for firing “nobody” and dismissing him as being “good on TV”, while the secretary of state hit back by voicing his resentment over Doge’s gutting of USAid, the foreign assistance agency over which he is nominally in charge.

People protest outside of the headquarters for United States Agency for International Development (USAid), before congressional Democrats hold news conference in Washington DC on 3 February. Photograph: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

Also on Saturday: Trump also warned Republicans against shutting down the government as a 14 March deadline loomed that would spell that very outcome in the absence of the adoption of a new spending bill. Instead, the president urged Republican members of Congress to maintain unity and vote for a stopgap funding bill stitched together by Republicans in the House of Representatives and the Senate.

7 March 2025Day 46

In more troubling remarks on Ukraine, Trump said he found it easier to deal with Russia and appeared to sympathise with Vladimir Putin after massive Russian air strikes that followed the decision to stop US intelligence sharing with Kyiv. Putin was “doing what anybody would do”, Trump said – despite have issued, hours earlier, a vague threat to impose sanctions and tariffs on Moscow over the strike.

Also on Friday: The administration announced the cancellation of $400m in grants to Colombia University in New York over the institution’s supposed failure to protect students from antisemitic harassment. The university’s New York campus – in common with others throughout the US – has been the site of prolonged protests against Israel’s military bombardment of Gaza.

In another move, Trump said he would sign an executive order barring student loan forgiveness to public servants engaged in “improper activities”.

6 March 2025Day 46

Trump performed yet another backflip on tariffs, delaying imposing import duties on goods from Canada and Mexico until April. The move followed nervousness on the stock market, with the S&P 500 index falling by 1.8% in a single day. The president, however, claimed his volte face had “nothing to do” with market developments.

Also on Thursday: As controversy raged over the cuts to government agencies imposed by Doge, Musk told congressional Republicans that he was not to blame for the mass firings that had provoked widespread outrage. At a cabinet meeting in the White House apparently called to addressing simmering cabinet discontent, Trump said department heads and not Musk – who was present – had the power to hire and fire federal workers and said they should do so wielding a “scalpel” to preserve the best people. The comment was widely seen as signalling the reining of Musk, who had been widely seen as running amok across government.

5 March 2025Day 45

Having already cut off the flow of arms, the Trump administration hit Ukraine with a fresh blow by stopping the sharing of intelligence with its supposed ally. The move effectively left the Ukrainians blinded about Russian strategic bombers and ballistic missile launches.

Residents remove debris from their home damaged by Russian shelling in the city of Kostiantynivka, Ukraine, on 21 February. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

A day after ushering in in 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico – the US’s two closest trading partners – the president performed a partial U-turn by exempting car makers. The move followed a call with the heads of the country’s three biggest car manufacturers, General Motors, Ford and Stellantis. Meanwhile, leading US retailers warned that prices were “highly likely” to start rising as a result of the tariffs, a consequence at odds with Trump’s election campaign promise to “make America affordable again”.

4 March 2025Day 44

In an extraordinarily rambunctious, one hour, 40 minute address to a joint session of Congress, Trump declared that his presidency was “just getting started” after his whirlwind return to the White House that has seen a flurry of executive orders and the federal bureaucracy upended in a drastic cost-cutting measures spearheaded by Doge. Democrats registered protests by holding of placards as Trump spoke, while some left the chamber early. and one, Al Green of Texas, was ejected after shouting that Trump had “no mandate”.

Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress at the US Capitol on 4 March in Washington DC. Photograph: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Also on Tuesday: Zelenskyy, meanwhile, issued a statement aimed at placating Trump, who had proclaimed him unready to make peace with Russia. Faced with a loss of US support, the Ukrainian president said he was ready to work “constructively” under Trump’s “strong leadership”.