Texas primaries: will pragmatism finally deliver Democrats a seat in the red state?

Never write off the voter. It has been tempting to despair of an electorate that returned Donald Trump to power in 2024. But as the US midterm elections got under way on Tuesday, the big winner was pragmatism.

Democrats in Texas picked James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian who preaches a political gospel of bridging divides, as their nominee for the Senate. He was widely seen as more electable than his primary opponent, Jasmine Crockett, a Texas congresswoman and unapologetic anti-Trump brawler, in a state where Democrats have gone decades without winning a statewide race.

Republicans in Texas resisted the temptation to anoint Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general and a conservative firebrand who has weathered allegations of corruption and infidelity. Paxton’s race with incumbent senator John Cornyn was closer than expected, meaning that the men will go to a runoff where the less extreme Cornyn could still pull off a win.

The results will allow both parties to breathe a sigh of relief in an era of bare-knuckle politics where the loudest, most radical voices tend to win primaries. Crockett had gone viral by calling Trump “a piece of shit” and mocking Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene’s “bleach blonde bad-built butch body”. Paxton had backed severe voting restrictions and statewide bans on abortion, railed against “woke indoctrination” and “anti-American ideology” and styled himself as the true Trump standard bearer.

Both candidates certainly energised voters and gained traction. In some parts of the country they would probably have prevailed. But in Texas, which could be vital to control of the Senate, and therefore the second half of Trump’s presidency, voters displayed a survival instinct.

Democrats, facing a choice between two charismatic progressives who represent generational change, went with Talarico, 36, who quotes scripture and rarely raises his voice. He did not mention Trump when he greeted supporters at his primary night celebration, promising: “We are trying to fundamentally change our politics, and it’s working.” His campaign provided “Love thy Neighbor” signs to people in the crowd.

Talarico often said his campaign was about addressing a country whose fundamental divide is not partisan but “top versus bottom”, a message that excited economic populists who feel that being anti-Trump is not enough. He also regularly assails the rise in Christian nationalism. The former teacher has advocated for public education – and against Texas conservatives’ policies to restrict curriculum and reshape how US history is taught.

Whereas Crockett – endorsed by former vice-president Kamala Harris – promised Democrats that she could increase turnout within the party’s base, Talarico campaigned on the theory that he could pull new people into the party’s tent. Campaigning in San Antonio, he said: “I can’t tell you [how many people] have come up to me, whispering that they’re not a Democrat.”

The result gave the first indication of whether Democratic voters want candidates like Crockett who fight Trump’s fire with fire, or contenders such as Talarico who are more likely to appeal to moderates and independents and might have a better chance of winning November’s election.

But sweeping conclusions should be treated with caution. What works in Texas, a vast melting pot known as the Lone Star state, will not necessarily work everywhere.

The Democratic primary had some unusual quirks: Talarico got a burst of publicity – and campaign contributions – last month from CBS’s decision not to air his interview with late-night host Stephen Colbert, who said the network pulled the interview for fear of angering Trump’s Federal Communications Commission.

Crockett, for her part, made an unforced error by reportedly ejecting an Atlantic magazine journalist from a campaign rally,calling the reporter “a top-notch hater”, and then trying to deny it. History suggests that gender and race may have also played a part in voters’ calculations about who had the better shot in a state that has never elected a Black governor or senator.

On the Republican side, there were three candidates fighting over who was most closely aligned with Trump in a contest that was light on policy but heavy on loyalty to the president. It was proof that Trump still dominates the party despite low approval ratings and some recent cracks in his Maga movement.

Cornyn, 74, who is seeking a fifth term, is a fixture of the Republican establishment but has broken with Trump in the past, notably when the president tried to overthrow the 2020 election result. Paxton, 63, a self-styled Maga warrior, filed legal challenges in Texas against Trump’s 2020 defeat and has been a fierce Trump loyalist for years.

The presence of a third candidate, Wesley Hunt, meant neither Paxton nor Cornyn were able to surpass the 50% total needed to secure the nomination outright. But Cornyn’s unexpectedly strong showing could be enough to gain Trump’s endorsement if the president is as pragmatic as the voters.

Should the extremist Paxton prevail, however, Democrats will have a historic opportunity in a state where they have long promised so much only to disappoint. In heavily Latino counties along the Rio Grande Valley, their turnout surged; the Democratic primary saw around twice as many voters as the Republican primary in Texas’s 34th district.

And Crockett’s gracious concession on Wednesday augured well for party unity as Talarico now seeks to win more Black voters. She said: “Texas is primed to turn blue and we must remain united because this is bigger than any one person. This is about the future of all 30 million Texans and getting America back on track.”

Indeed, the midterms will be a referendum on the Trump presidency, including the war on Iran, especially if gas prices continue to rise and US casualties grow. In Texas, at least, voters on both sides have shown they understand the stakes.