The anti-incumbent wave crashes on Rhode Island

Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee has a month to turn around primary challenger Helena Foulkes’ 20-point lead or become the first sitting U.S. governor to lose a primary in eight years.

The race represents another crest in the world’s post-pandemic anti-incumbent wave, which has transcended ideological lines as voters express broad frustration with high costs of living and governments they don’t feel are working for them. It’s a throughline from insurgent progressive victories to Kamala Harris’ 2024 loss to President Donald Trump’s growing unpopularity.

And it’s all down to a bridge.

Signs outside Rhode Island’s partially closed Washington Bridge tell drivers: “Thank you for your patience.”

But voters who’ve lived through the resulting traffic crisis since emergency safety concerns emerged in 2023 keep telling Foulkes the messages make them feel the opposite. Despite some improvement, they’re fed up with commuting and economic troubles stemming from the bridge’s slowdown. One older woman told Foulkes she wanted to take out her BB gun and shoot the signs.

The contest is a rematch of the 2022 primary, when McKee (who’d been elevated to governor when Gina Raimondo became Commerce secretary) narrowly edged out Foulkes in a multi-candidate race. The primary doesn’t fall neatly along the ideological lines that have riven Democrats elsewhere. Foulkes and McKee, both baby boomers, have positioned themselves as relatively mainstream, center-left Dems.

“I’m running against people’s belief that the status quo is maybe just as good as we’re ever going to be,” Foulkes told Playbook. She’s proposed funding 20,000 new housing units with a millionaires tax. “It’s so important that people feel a sense of momentum and energy … because I think oftentimes government doesn’t feel urgent to people, and their lives are really hurting.”

Rhode Island is small enough — an hour’s drive from one corner to the other — that a single bridge symbolizes the trend. (The Washington Bridge is a key conduit between Providence and East Providence.) Almost everybody says the bridge is the No. 1 issue in the race and voters’ perception of McKee’s tenure. He and Foulkes have squabbled over the pace of rebuilding, the bidding process and the state Department of Transportation leadership. Residents are also struggling with some of the country’s highest electric rates and worst housing affordability metrics.

The state’s anti-establishment/outsider energy isn’t limited to this contest. In the GOP gubernatorial primary, the polling leader is Elaine Pelino — a former actress, Howard Lutnick assistant and publisher of Tigress Magazine (“For the Fierce, One of a Kind Woman”) — who’s gathered steam with anti-socialism Facebook posts. For lieutenant governor, incumbent Democrat Sabina Matos faces strong challenges from Newport City Councilor Xay Khamsyvoravong and others. And Providence Mayor Brett Smiley is trying to fend off state Rep. David Morales on his left.

But McKee is mounting a vigorous defense of his time in office, saying he’s delivered for Rhode Islanders — despite Trump’s obstacles — on jobs, SNAP, wind energy, education, hospitals, housing and energy. The governor argues he’s prioritized safety on the bridge after previous leaders kicked the can down the road. One recent poll by McKee allies found a closer race, with Foulkes ahead by just 6 points.

“My record is going to really be the important factor,” McKee said in an interview. “My opponent’s record’s been in the corporate boardroom, really putting profits over people.”

That’s the heart of McKee’s message, which banks on another crucial Democratic 2026 narrative carrying the day: a working people’s populism taking on the elite business class. McKee has long had a base of union support. In Foulkes, he has an opponent who’s no democratic socialist. She was a longtime CVS executive and comes from a storied political lineage (her grandfather and uncle, Thomas and Chris Dodd, were both senators).

“It’s kind of a running bit here that her campaign is, in a very real way, being run from the deck of the Dunes Club in Narragansett,” said McKee campaign manager Drew Shannon, referring to the exclusive, members-only beach club.

And McKee has gone negative on the airwaves, accusing Foulkes of cutting people’s health care and turning a blind eye to opioid addiction during her time at CVS. “She’s a denier: someone who denies the progress we’re making,” McKee told Playbook. “Just like she denies the role she played in fueling an opioid crisis.” Both candidates got fiery in a radio debate this week. As of July 31, Foulkes had five times McKee’s cash on hand.

McKee has been rolling out a string of notable endorsements, many from labor, including teachers, firefighters, building trades and Planned Parenthood Votes! Rhode Island PAC. If he can pull off a comeback, it’ll likely be on the strength of union support.

But his positioning as a labor champion from the working-class Blackstone Valley — the birthplace of the U.S.’ Industrial Revolution — has been partially undercut by high-profile defections in his base. The Rhode Island SEIU State Council backed Foulkes. The state Democratic Party and the state AFL-CIO voted not to endorse in the race, both of which were seen as big blows to McKee.

“The labor movement is going to be in both camps,” AFL-CIO President Patrick Crowley said.

And a number of Democratic city committees have sprung for Foulkes. Cumberland Mayor Jeff Cutter, who serves in the role McKee once held, is among those now supporting her. “There’s been some stances taken that I don’t think represent the same person who was a mentor of mine,” Cutter said of McKee, calling his endorsement a difficult personal choice.

“It’s one of those times,” Cutter added, “where the advantage of incumbency might not be an advantage at this point because there’s just so much kind of frustration.”

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