'********': The Dividing Line Between The Progressives Who Could Replace Graham Platner

When Nirav Shah, a former leader of Maine's Center For Disease Control, was running for governor earlier this year, he would often argue his law degree ― he has both a J.D. and an M.D. from the University of Chicago ― made him better equipped for the job than his major opponents for the Democratic nomination.

"In an era where Donald Trump is doing his thing, it's the courts that are the sword and shield through which we push back," he told HuffPost in an interview a few days before the election, where he would ultimately finish second to former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree.

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This talking point, though, had long rubbed one of his opponents for the nomination the wrong way.

"When Shah entered the race, the very first forum we had, he brought up the fact that the next governor has to be a lawyer," Troy Jackson, a logger from Maine's ultra-rural north and a former state Senate president, said at the time. "Well, I think that's ********."

He continued: "I actually don't think lawyers have done us a whole lot of good over the years. I mean, I'm not against lawyers, but having a lawyer as governor has done **** for me and the people I care about."

A month later, Shah and Jackson are now rivals in an unexpected and unusual contest to replace disgraced progressive Graham Platner as the Democratic Party's nominee to challenge GOP Sen. Susan Collins in November. Along with Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, Maine Beer Company founder Dan Kleban and former congressional candidate Jordan Wood, they are the leading candidates in a hastily-planned 600-person convention.

The contrast between the two men ― the ultra-credentialed Shah also studied economics at Oxford University, worked in Big Law and led public health departments in two states, while Jackson has an associate's degree in business from the University of Maine at Fort Kent and first entered politics by helping lead a physical blockade of Canadian lumberjacks ― will be on display Thursday night, in what will likely be the only debate before the party picks a new nominee. 

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Both men straddle the outsider vs. establishment divide, and both have endorsed progressive priorities like Medicare for All, abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and cutting off military aid to Israel. But the convention delegates, drawn from the ranks of the most politically involved Democrats in the state, are almost certain to care about electability above all else.

"It's going to be who they know, who they're comfortable with, and who they think can beat Susan Collins," David Farmer, a Democratic strategist in the state who is neutral in the contest, said of the delegates.

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The issue, Farmer noted, is everyone has their own theory of electability.

"I don't think there is a consensus among the Democratic Party about which attributes will help us win in November," he said.

As the Democratic Party chases voters without a college degree in the aftermath of its second loss to Trump, it has aggressively recruited candidates with working-class backgrounds. Platner, the most famous, has ended up shunned by the party after facing two accusations of ****** assault. But others, including former firefighter Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania and Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin, are seen as strong candidates with a chance to flip GOP-held seats.

Technocracy, by comparison, has been out of style in the Democratic Party. Progressives associate it with where they believe former President Barack Obama's administration fell short, and there is a pervasive belief the party's failure to win working-class voters is linked to the idea the party is more ivory tower than ironworker. 

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Shah's campaign for governor at least challenged some of those assumptions: He won the initial round of voting, and polls consistently showed him as a popular figure, well-liked by Mainers for his role leading the state's public health department through the coronavirus pandemic. 

He's run during the convention process like it's a general election, becoming the first candidate to request a televised debate, and holding frequent town halls and press availabilities where he lambasts Collins.

"She's got power, but she didn't use it to rein in a rogue agency, and instead gave them a blank check to kill," Shah told reporters at a press conference outside Collins' office on Tuesday after an ICE agent shot and killed a man in Biddeford, Maine. "It is time to abolish this broken agency. It is time to fire the leadership that has let it run wild. And it is time to retire politicians like Susan Collins who have made this lawlessness possible."

Still, the only polling of the post-Platner battle for the nomination ― which may not be worth much, considering the convention setup ― shows him a clear second to Jackson. The survey, conducted by Chism Strategies, found 40% of registered Democrats in the state back Jackson, 23% back Shah and 14% back Bellows, with the rest of the candidates all receiving less than 10% of the vote.

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Jackson, who finished third in the governor's race, matches the progressive spirit of the state exemplified by the Platner "movement" but also has the insider credentials as a former legislative to succeed in a convention-like setup. 

Joseph Geevarghese, the leader of Our Revolution, a progressive nonprofit which is backing Jackson, said he thought the choice was between an expert who can solve problems and a experienced politician with a long track record of populist fights.

"I think the electorate wants the latter," he said. "They're looking for fighters who are going to push for economic change in a corporate-dominated Washington."

The split between these two styles, however, is unlikely to directly determine who gets the nomination as much as who can capitalize on the quirks of the convention process, like winning over other eliminated candidates' delegates in the moment. That, many operatives in the process said, could favor a candidate like Bellows who could emerge as a compromise pick. 

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A 600-person convention is ultimately a political devotee's game, dominated by people willing to spend one Saturday winning a spot at the convention and then potentially driving hours to Bangor the next Saturday to participate in the actual convention.

"There are no low-information voters," said Farmer. "There is no one casually waking up and going, 'Oh ****, it's Election Day.'"

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