The next big battleground test: A Wisconsin race that has tortured Republicans

Republicans looking to recover after bruising electoral losses in November are sharply divided over one of the next big electoral tests: a statewide judicial race in battleground Wisconsin.

Wisconsin voters will head to the polls in April to pick the state’s next Supreme Court justice for the fourth time since 2020. In the last three contests, liberal candidates have demolished the GOP-backed ones, sending conservatives — who in as recently as 2023 enjoyed a majority on the court — deep into the wilderness.

And some Republicans in the state are already at odds over how to try to reverse that losing streak: Embrace the Republican Party brand, Trump and all, or try to separate as much as possible from a partisan label in a throwback bid to less contentious judicial contests.

“If you don't tell your voter where you are, you’re likely going to lessen their incentive,” said Brandon Scholz, the former executive director of the Wisconsin Republican Party. “Think about the liberal side. They're going to turn on every anti-Donald Trump voter that's been known to man in Wisconsin.”

The elections are technically nonpartisan, but both Republicans and Democrats have poured tens of millions into the most recent contests because of the scope and potential cases appearing before the court. In July, liberals on the bench voted to overturn Wisconsin’s 176-year-old abortion ban. And in April, the court ruled that Democratic Gov. Tony Evers could lock in a 400-year school funding increase using his line-item veto power, a decision that also split along ideological lines. And Democrats hope the court will take up a redistricting case in time for the 2026 election.

The conservative candidate for the court, Maria Lazar, said in an interview that the best way to recapture the seat is to refocus the election away from the political extremes.

“This is not a Republican versus a Democrat,” said Lazar, a longtime judge who has spent the last three years on an appellate court in the Milwaukee metro-area city of Waukesha. “This is a judicial race, and the reason why it’s going to be different is that I am, through and through and all the way, a judge, not a politician.”

But several prominent GOP operatives in the state are worried that will not reverse the party’s losing streak.

Gone are the days of conservative candidates successfully selling electorates on vague notions of jurisprudence and the rule of law, said Scholz, who left the Republican Party in 2021.

The dissonance comes as Republicans contend with the built-in disadvantages that these days accompany spring elections: They’re facing voters who have leaned significantly to the left in recent years, despite razor thin margins in November elections and a win for Trump by less than a point in 2024. And Democrats, they say, have excelled at drawing their base to the polls.

“They're high-propensity voters that are very much in tune with what's going on in the state, highly educated, and very much motivated to come out and vote on both sides,” said Alejandro Verdin, a Democratic strategist who ran liberal state Justice Janet Protasiewicz’s winning 2023 Supreme Court campaign. “The ordinary voter is not thinking, ‘Oh I have to vote in the spring.’”

Republicans’ lone hope lies in energizing enough of their own voters, said Alec Zimmerman, the communications director for Sen. Ron Johnson during his 2022 campaign.

“There's not some large group in the middle that's swayable, but this is a really low-turnout election, and whoever gets their team to the polls better is going to win. I really think that that's where their focus has to be,” he said.

The filing deadline is not until January. But Lazar and Chris Taylor, a former Democratic state lawmaker that Evers appointed to a lower court in 2020, are the only two candidates who have filed for the contest. And while the state GOP has not formally endorsed Lazar, spokesperson Anika Rickard signaled the party’s support for her, saying, “I think her strategy is a good strategy going into this election.”

Lazar said she was mindful of a disastrous 2025 campaign that saw Susan Crawford take down conservative Brad Schimel by roughly 10 points in a race that drew more $90 million in spending, including buckets of campaign cash from Elon Musk.

Schimel leaned into his MAGA bona fides. The Trump-endorsed Republican reportedly dressed up as the president for Halloween. Musk argued that “Western civilization” was at stake if Schimel lost.

“I think last year was a prime example of the horribleness of what’s been happening,” Lazar said. “After all the money was spent and everything was said and done, I ask people when I’m out on the road now, I say, ‘does anyone know anything at all whatsoever about the quality, the qualifications, the merits of each judicial candidate as a judge?’ And the answer I always get back is ‘no.’”

But abandoning the Republican brand isn’t likely to bring enough new voters to the table, the strategists caution. And it’s emblematic of broader issues for the Wisconsin GOP, which has struggled to mobilize Trump’s core supporters when the president himself isn’t on the ballot.

“I just think voters are not really in tune with this whole 'Oh, I put on the black robe, and all of a sudden, I'm just this mythical being,’” said Ben Voelkel, a former longtime senior aide to Johnson and onetime candidate for lieutenant governor. “Other lawyers like hearing that, but I think your average voter, that just does not connect with them.”

Nathan Conrad, a campaign spokesperson for Lazar, pointed to position papers her campaign has posted to its website, and said they were focused on articulating her positions through traditional as well as social media outreach.

“We are tackling issues and speaking on them actively,” he said. “These sound like old talking points from past campaigns that have lost. We will continue to engage every voter possible and discuss where Maria stands.”

The tenor of this election is different from the last two, which each decided which party was in the majority. Barring any resignations, liberal justices will hold the majority until at least 2028 even if they lose in the spring.

But even without the majority in play, Democrats are convinced their voters understand the same urgency exists after a string of favorable rulings

“You don't get to, you know, plus 10 percent margins in our elections without winning some folks in the middle or even folks that may lean conservative,” said Devin Remiker, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. “I believe that we understand maybe more so than other states, just how important every single election is and how important these elections for the Supreme Court are.”