Thom Tillis' exit shakes up the battle for the Senate as key races take shape

GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’ surprise retirement announcement has shaken up not only North Carolina’s Senate race, but also the broader fight for the majority in the chamber heading into next year’s midterm elections.

Democrats face a difficult task of netting four seats to win the Senate majority. Aside from battleground North Carolina, the party’s top pickup opportunity is in Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins is the only Republican senator representing a state that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024. But the five-term incumbent has proved difficult to unseat.

And beyond that, Democrats would need to win races in traditionally red states, in addition to holding a handful of swing-state seats.

But with Tillis now declining to seek a third term, Democrats are starting to see a clearer, if still uphill, path to the majority.

“If Democrats want to take back the Senate, it starts in North Carolina,” said Morgan Jackson, a veteran Democratic consultant in the state.

The Democratic fields in North Carolina and Maine are still taking shape, and decisions from potential contenders could come in the next few weeks after a new fundraising quarter kicked off on Tuesday. Candidates often launch campaigns early in a quarter in hopes of posting a big fundraising number right out of the gate.

In recent days, Republican Scott Brown launched a Senate bid in New Hampshire, while former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred announced he is running in Texas.

Tar Heel State shake-up

Tillis’ exit now means the Republican field in North Carolina is in flux, with all eyes on a potential contender with the same last name as President Donald Trump.

Trump told reporters Tuesday that his daughter-in-law Lara Trump “would always be my first choice” to run for Senate in North Carolina, her home state. Some Tar Heel State Republicans said potential candidates would likely defer to Lara Trump if she decides to run.

“The Trump lane is the path to victory. If your name’s Trump, you got a pretty good advantage,” said Republican strategist Jonathan Felts.

A former Republican National Committee co-chair, Lara Trump told Fox News Radio on Monday that she is considering a run, noting that she passed on running for Senate in North Carolina in 2022 and in Florida earlier this year.

“It is something that, if it works out and the timing works and it works for my family, it is absolutely something that I would consider doing,” she said.

Doug Heye, a former RNC spokesman and North Carolina native, said Lara Trump “has the right of first refusal.”

“If she wants the nomination, she’s in the driver’s seat,” Heye said. “If she doesn’t, this process could be wide open.”

Other potential candidates include current RNC Chairman Michael Whatley, the former chairman of the North Carolina GOP.

“It’s fair to say that he is open to it, but he is going to take direction from the president and the White House,” said one Senate GOP strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly about private deliberations.

First-term Rep. Pat Harrigan, R-N.C., is also considered a potential candidate, though he posted on X that he would back Lara Trump if she runs. Rep. Greg Murphy, R-N.C., told reporters at the Capitol on Wednesday that he is also considering a Senate run, but he has been focused on passing the president’s sweeping domestic policy bill.

Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., was considered a potential candidate, but he announced on Tuesday that he remains focused on leading the National Republican Congressional Committee.

On the Democratic side, former Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel is in the race, but many members of the party are waiting to see if former Gov. Roy Cooper decides to jump in.

“Gov. Cooper continues to strongly consider a run for the Senate and he’ll decide in the coming weeks,” said Jackson, a Cooper adviser. Jackson said Tillis’ exit has not affected Cooper’s deliberations, noting Cooper’s decision “has always been based on a personal decision of what is the best way to serve the state and the people. And that calculation has not changed.”

Other key matchups take shape

The Democratic field is also still in flux in Maine. Collins’ spokespeople did not return a request for comment on her plans, but she told CNN in May, “It’s certainly my inclination to run and I’m preparing to do so,” adding that she has “not made a formal announcement because it’s too early for that.”

Jordan Wood, a Maine native who served as former California Rep. Katie Porter’s chief of staff, is in the race on the Democratic side. Maine state House Speaker Ryan Fecteau and former state Sen. Cathy Breen told the Portland Press Herald in May that they were considering runs. And Dan Kleban, co-founder of Maine Beer Company, told the Bangor Daily News that he is also weighing a run for Senate.

But Democrats are largely waiting on Gov. Janet Mills to make a decision on a Senate run. Mills, who cannot run for re-election due to term limits, has not closed the door on challenging Collins. But she told the Maine Trust for Local News in April, “I’m not planning to run for anything. Things change week to week, month to month, but at this moment I’m not planning to run for another office.”

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Chairwoman Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., told NBC News last month that she was confident her party would have formidable candidates in both Maine and North Carolina. She also did not rule out taking sides in primaries to boost the strongest candidate.

Republicans, meanwhile, are looking to expand their 53-47 majority by targeting Democratic-held seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.

Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Democrat running for re-election in a state Trump won last year, since Michigan Sen. Gary Peters is retiring. And Republicans are bracing for a primary fight in the Peach State after Gov. Brian Kemp passed on running.

Rep. Buddy Carter, R-Ga., and state Insurance Commissioner John King are already in the race, and the field is expected to grow. Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga., told NBC News on Wednesday that he is seriously considering a run and would make a decision “in the near future.”

Derek Dooley, a former football coach at the University of Tennessee with personal ties to Kemp, is seriously considering running and has met with key Georgia donors and Republican officials in Washington, D.C., according to a Georgia GOP strategist familiar with Dooley’s deliberations.

It remains to be seen whether Trump and Kemp will work to back the same candidate in the primary. Trump and Kemp met in mid-May, a source familiar with the meeting confirmed to NBC News. The meeting was first reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, which noted that Trump and Kemp did discuss the Senate race.

GOP leaders have already taken sides in the primary in Michigan, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott, R-S.C., backing former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost a close Senate race last year. But Rogers could still face a primary, with Rep. Bill Huizenga considering a run.

Democrats will also have a contentious primary in the open-seat race, with Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, former state House Speaker Joe Tate and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed all running for the nomination.

But Democrats have coalesced around a candidate in New Hampshire, with Rep. Chris Pappas running to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Brown, a former ambassador and former Massachusetts senator, may not be the only Republican candidate to jump into the race. State Sen. Dan Innis has also said he is considering a run.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com