Trump layoffs have hollowed out key weather monitoring staff amid storm season

As deadly severe storms swept the US this week, recent Donald Trump administration staffing cuts have left key parts of weather monitoring and disaster preparedness systems severely understaffed, the Guardian has learned.

March typically signals the start of a four-month tornado season across the eastern two-thirds of the US. Last year’s tornado season was one of the most prolific on record, and this year’s tornado season is getting off to an early active start.

A multi-day tornado outbreak tore across several southern states, with significant damage reported near Ada, Oklahoma, including part of an elementary school. Dangerous storms then spread eastward into the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic. Strong winds in Mississippi killed and injured multiple people in separate incidents.

The period of unsettled weather raised concerns internally among National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologists that the newly downsized agency could be stretched thin.

Late last week, the Trump administration directed the NWS’s parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), to terminate approximately 800 probationary employees. In addition, more than 100 deferred resignations and early retirements took effect on Friday, mostly in senior roles.

The downsizing comes as part of a radical reshaping of the US federal government, led by tech billionaire Elon Musk, who is seeking to slash tens of thousands of jobs and tens of billions of dollars in spending.

The NWS, which is staffed around the clock, has lost about 10% of its workforce in recent days. But current and former Noaa scientists and officials that the Guardian consulted say the NWS cuts fell haphazardly, leaving some forecast offices in a much worse staffing position than others.

Some of the hardest-hit offices were the most prone to severe weather, according to an analysis of publicly available staffing information reviewed by the Guardian. The NWS offices in Miami, Boston, Houston, Cheyenne in Wyoming and Rapid City in South Dakota have all lost more than 30% of their staffing as compared with last fall.

“At some point these cuts are going to make Noaa break,” said Tom Di Liberto, a former Noaa public affairs specialist, who lost his job last week. “I am just so mad because our ability to help other people is going to go down … This is going to hurt people.”

In addition to this week’s tornado threat, weather warnings for high winds, dust storms, wildfires and a major blizzard stretched across much of the central US this week as a tumultuous spring storm system swept the country. Over the next several days, a series of coastal storms are also expected to bring steady rains to parts of the west coast, including scorched areas across southern California where out-of-season wildfires recently destroyed thousands of homes.

Accurate and timely weather forecasts provided by the NWS not only power virtually all weather apps and television weather forecasts, they also underlie much of the US economy and help it to function efficiently.

The Trump administration’s cuts to the NWS are “likely to cause irreparable harm and have far-reaching consequences for public safety, economic well-being, and the United States’ global leadership”, according to a statement by the American Meteorological Society (AMS), a scientific organization.

The AMS statement called continued federal investment in weather forecasting “an internationally recognized and highly respected means of multiplying value and benefits to the American people”.

When asked to confirm the staffing cuts and their likely impact on routine weather forecasting operations, Noaa refused to directly comment.

“Per longstanding practice, we are not discussing internal personnel and management matters. Noaa remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation’s environmental and economic resilience,” said Noaa spokesperson Susan Buchanan. “We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission.”

The NWS has 122 offices nationwide where teams of meteorologists work three rotating shifts throughout the day. NWS staff said that, typically, two or three meteorologists are in the office during overnight hours or periods of quiet weather, but those numbers routinely double during severe weather episodes.

Safety concerns are growing as NWS offices gradually update their public-facing staffing pages after last week’s cuts and the exact nature of the staffing shortages becomes more clear.

About one-third of the approximately 40 offices whose post-layoff staffing rosters the Guardian examined throughout tornado alley and in population-dense areas of the east coast now have critical staffing shortages – insufficient to even minimally staff all three shifts while factoring in weekly time off. Those critically understaffed offices include Miami, Boston, Houston, Omaha, Wichita, Kansas City, Sioux Falls in South Dakota and Cheyenne in Wyoming.

One senior meteorologist who manages a NWS office in tornado alley said the cuts have made him feel “stressed” and has reduced the morale of his staff.

Workers use heavy machinery to gather and haul debris from a destroyed school in Altadena, California. Photograph: David Swanson/Reuters

“The day to day (hour to hour) uncertainty of what’s going to happen next or what’s going to show up in your inbox is mentally exhausting,” said the meteorologist, who wanted to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation. “Focus is still on our mission and we will do whatever it takes to deliver services to fulfill that mission.”

Some high-impact offices, such as the one in New Orleans, did not appear to lose any staff. Other offices, such as those in Wichita and Omaha, remain at critical shortages that predate Trump’s second term in office.

During times of acute severe weather, NWS offices can request that another office fulfill part or all of their duties. This happens most typically when weather service staff are forced to seek physical shelter when the storms they are forecasting affect their home office, but can also happen during periods of communication outages.

Most likely, critically understaffed offices will require their forecasters to work overtime and cancel planned leave, worsening morale and taxing meteorologists’ mental and physical health.

Some tasks, such as training and public outreach – including storm spotter training and school field trips – have already been cancelled. Weather radar systems near San Francisco and San Diego that went down shortly after last week’s staff cuts were announced took days to be repaired. At one point during this week’s severe storms, 11 weather radars were down nationwide – nearly 10% of the country’s fleet.

“These people, they’re human beings, they’re not magicians,” said Di Liberto. “The burnout is going to be intense.”

Other essential parts of federal disaster management, such as Fema and the agencies that manage public lands, have also been hamstrung by staff cuts and strict spending limits.

Researchers have recently uncovered evidence that our warming atmosphere is contributing to an eastward shift in the region where tornadoes are most likely to form, in addition to boosting the odds of extreme early season activity.

Water temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico spent much of February at record warm levels, contributing additional moisture and fuel for this week’s severe weather outbreak. The level of warmth over southern states this week is more typical of late April, around the peak of the annual tornado season.