Trump looms over New Jersey campaign as GOP looks to build on 2024 gains

The New Jersey governor’s race could be President Donald Trump’s first chance, since returning to the White House, to sway a major GOP primary — and allegiance to Trump has become a top issue in the race.

The top two contenders, former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli and radio host Bill Spadea, met with Trump at the president’s Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club in late March, and both want his endorsement. But it’s not clear if Trump will pick a favorite before the June 10 primary.

“It’s will he or won’t he? And as everyone knows, President Trump can be unpredictable at times,” said Jeanette Hoffman, a New Jersey GOP strategist who is not involved in the governor’s race.

“By and large, the issue in the primary is who’s the most Trump-loyal candidate in the race,” Hoffman added.

That comes against the backdrop of Trump’s gains in 2024 in New Jersey, where he improved his margin by 10 percentage points compared to 2020 — second-most of any state in the country. While the president still lost New Jersey by 6 points, it was the closest presidential result there in more than three decades, signaling both the new demographic coalition Trump has built for the GOP and the prospect that the 2025 governor’s race could be competitive.

Spadea and Ciattarelli told NBC News that they have not spoken to Trump since they met with him in late March, but they have taken their cases to the airwaves.

Spadea launched his first TV ad this week, playing audio of Trump’s appearance on his radio show from last May, when Trump told Spadea, “You’ve had my back from the beginning” and criticized Ciattarelli for not asking Trump to campaign with him during his unsuccessful run for governor in 2021, which ended in a narrow defeat.

The ad also uses artificial intelligence to portray Ciattarelli’s voice reciting his 2015 criticisms that Trump was a “charlatan” and unfit to be president.

Ciattarelli’s campaign launched its own attack ad in March featuring footage of Spadea saying on his radio show in 2021 that Trump “failed” and that he did not want Trump to run again.

Both candidates have dismissed the attacks.

“A whole lot of people said the things about Donald Trump back in 2015 and ‘16, including the vice president of the United States, JD Vance,” Ciattarelli said in a phone interview Thursday. He called Spadea’s campaign “one big lie” and accused him of trying to run from his own, more recent, criticisms of Trump.

Ciattarelli also declined to say whether he disagreed with any of Trump’s actions in his second term.

“I certainly support him 100% on what he doing with the border. We got to secure our nation,” Ciattarelli said. “And I know it’s going — he warned us about some short-term pain for the long-term gain. He’s trying to hit the reset button on the trade imbalance. The trade imbalance affects all of us, and that’s not an easy task.”

Spadea campaign manager Tom Bonfonti accused Ciattarelli of trying to deflect from his past Trump critiques. Spadea himself noted that his relationship with Trump has persisted even when he has disagreed with the president, and said he was “authentic with him about my history with him” when they spoke in March.

“I’ve been with him since the escalator,” Spadea told NBC News, referring to when Trump launched his first presidential campaign a decade ago. “And although I have criticized some policy decisions, both publicly and privately, no question about it ... I have a real relationship with the president in that sense, and I think that’s a positive. But I have been with him and I support his agenda 100%.”

Trump endorsement looms

Spadea and Ciatarelli aren’t the only ones appealing to the MAGA base.

Former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac, who has been endorsed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, is a self-described “forever Trumper.” Kranjac’s campaign manager, Mike Byrne, said Kranjac has not spoken directly with Trump, but their team has been in touch with some people in Trump’s “orbit.”

A fourth candidate, state Sen. Jon Bramnick, who has criticized Trump, told NBC News he has not reached out to the White House. He said he would welcome an endorsement from the president but acknowledged he is unlikely to get it.

Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s former campaign manager and senior adviser who is working with the pro-Ciattarelli super PAC Kitchen Table Conservatives, told reporters last month that she believes the “odds are” that Trump will endorse in the race and that he could back Ciattarelli. (Conway is not the only Trump alum tied to the race. His 2020 campaign manager, Bill Stepien, is working with Spadea’s campaign.)

“I never get ahead of the president,” Conway told NBC News. “I know he had a very good meeting and exchange with Jack, and is a savvy consumer of polling data.”

Ciattarelli has led the field public polling and outpaced his opponents on the airwaves, spending $3.2 million on ads so far, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Bramnick’s campaign began launching ads in late February. Kranjac, who is self-funding his campaign, is expected to launch an ad soon, Byrne said.

Ciattarelli’s latest TV spot, which targets “Trenton Democrats” on energy costs, is a sign that the former assemblyman may be turning his attention to the general election.

But Trump could still shake up the primary if he decides to weigh in. And the jockeying for Trump’s endorsement underscores just how quickly he has reshaped the GOP.

In the state’s last gubernatorial race in 2021, a pro-Trump candidate abruptly ended his campaign after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, clearing Ciattarelli’s path to the nomination. He went on to lose by 3 points to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who cannot run again due to term limits.

Ciattarelli did not campaign with Trump then. But this year, during a February debate, Ciattarelli joined the other candidates in saying they would welcome Trump to campaign the Garden State.

Trump does have a mixed endorsement record in New Jersey, endorsing Christine Serrano Glassner one month before the GOP Senate primary last year, which she went on to lose. One of her opponents had already locked up support from county parties, which are powerful in New Jersey but used to have more sway over candidates’ ballot positions than they do now.

Spadea said Trump could have a “tremendous” impact on the primary if he picks a favorite. Spadea said he has asked Trump for his endorsement, and he also invited Trump to campaign in New Jersey immediately following the primary, regardless of who wins.

Ciattarelli declined to say if he asked for Trump’s support when they met in March, but he said he does want the president’s endorsement.

Ciattarelli said he thanked Trump for temporary halting wind farms off the Jersey shore and for slamming New York Democrats on congestion pricing. He also said he told Trump “all about how we can win in November here in New Jersey. And he was very thankful and excited about that prospect.”

As for Trump voters who might still be skeptical of him, Ciattarelli said, “All I know is that Republicans up and down the state of New Jersey want very much for us to have a Republican governor. My job is to make the case that I’m the only one that provides the only opportunity to win in November.”

GOP eyes an opportunity

That electability case could carry weight with Trump. One GOP strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly about Trump’s endorsement process, noted that Trump weighs a candidate’s viability in a primary and general election when deciding who to back.

“The president loves to support winners,” the strategist said.

Spadea, though, argued that he is the more viable candidate. He cast his primary opponents as Democrats in disguise and said he can appeal to “disaffected Democrats that feel their party has abandoned them,” especially on a range of social issues.

Bramnick is also making an electability case in the primary, noting he has won a state Senate district that supports Democrats at the top of the ticket. Bramnick said he is moderate on abortion, as a self-described “pro-choice Republican,” but conservative on immigration.

“Look, it’s interesting to have positions that you believe are strong Republican, partisan positions. And guess what? You’re going to lose,” Bramnick said. “You have to appeal to not only Republicans, but also independents and moderate Democrats ...  Otherwise we’re going to be in a minority for another 20 years.”

New Jersey Republicans believe they have a real shot at the governor’s race, pointing both to Ciattarelli’s close loss in 2021 and Trump’s 6-point loss in November as proof that the party has momentum.

“I think New Jerseyans are really wearing out,” said Rep. Jeff Van Drew, R-N.J., who chaired Trump’s campaign in the Garden State and is staying neutral in the governor’s race. “I’m not saying they’re becoming deep red, hard Republicans, but they want some voice of common sense.”

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com