Trump's Fed shortlist is narrowing, but a final choice could be months off

• President Donald Trump has narrowed down his list of potential next Fed chairs.

• Trump recently said he had a "top three." There might also be two other finalists.

• Prediction markets now favor Kevin Hassett, a Trump economic advisor.

President Donald Trump has narrowed down his shortlist to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but don't expect a decision anytime soon.

Trump recently told reporters that Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller, director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett, and former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh were "the top three."

CNBC reported on October 10 that two more names also made the cut: Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman and BlackRock Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder.

Powell's term expires next May, but hasn't stopped the White House from aggressively searching for his replacement. CNBC reported that the next round of interviews may stretch until after Thanksgiving. The Fed will have a vacancy in 2026, meaning Trump's pick could enter the central bank with a full 14-year term as governor.

Here are the leading contenders.

Kevin Hassett

Before joining Trump's orbit, Hassett advised a succession of Republican presidential nominees on economic policy, including George W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney.

As of October, Hassett is the favorite on PolyMarket and Kalshi, two of the leading prediction markets. Hassett is a much more commanding favorite on Kalshi.

During Trump's first term, Hassett served as director of the president's Council of Economic Advisors. He returned to the White House during the COVID-19 pandemic and was severely criticized for publishing a model showing coronavirus deaths hitting zero by May 15, 2020.

In October 1999, Hassett cowrote with journalist Jason Glassman "Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market." Some economists have heavily criticized the book, largely because the index took more than 22 years to reach that threshold.

Christopher Waller

Fed Gov. Christopher Waller told CNBC that he thought his interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went "well."

"I mean, it was a lot of discussion about various aspects of talking about various speeches I've given my points of view, they've kind of wanted to follow up on tales of it," Wall said in October. "I just thought it was great. I mean, it was really there was nothing political about it. There was nothing. It was all serious economic discussion. So that's why I thought it was brilliant."

Bessent, himself once a contender to replace Powell, is leading the interview process to narrow Trump's shortlist.