Trump's third-term talk freezes the potential 2028 Republican field

WASHINGTON — The merch is out and available for a price on the Trump Organization website: $50 for a “Trump 2028” hat; $36 for a shirt that reads, “Trump 2028 (Re-write the Rules).”

The rules aren’t so easily undone. Donald Trump can’t be elected again in 2028 under the constitutional amendment limiting presidents to two terms. Any number of Trump’s Republican allies will tell you that a third term is inconceivable given the enormous hurdles required to pass a new amendment.

“He’s not going to run for another term,” former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich told NBC News. But, he added, Trump has reason to talk about it: "Don’t underestimate the degree to which he believes any Trump-centered noise is good, because it starves his opponents."

Yet Trump continues to flirt with the prospect of serving until 2033, when he would be 86 years old. Whether he’ll follow through or not, his assertion that a third term is no joke is something that would-be-contenders ignore at their own peril.

Teasing a third term freezes the 2028 GOP presidential field until aspiring candidates have a clearer understanding of whether and how far Trump intends to push the limits of the Constitution.

Anyone who front runs Trump and mounts a campaign before he declares his intentions might offend the MAGA movement.

Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Josh Hawley of Missouri, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — none are likely to start building a campaign unless and until Trump concedes this term is his last.

Doing so would invite “total and complete rejection,” said Steve Bannon, a senior White House official in Trump’s first term who is exploring ways for Trump to serve a third term. “Trump is MAGA; MAGA is Trump.”

Asa Hutchinson, a former Arkansas governor who ran against Trump for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, said that Trump’s third-term musings “particularly impact JD Vance and Ron DeSantis and anyone else who wants the favor of Donald Trump. They know they have to stay out of the mix until Donald Trump gives the blessing to go after it and says that he would not be seeking a third term.”

That’s not likely to happen any time soon. The party expects Trump to draw out an announcement about his future as long as he can, according to a Republican who is close to possible 2028 candidates. The more Trump delays, the more he commands attention and averts the perception that he’s a lame duck.

The White House has considerable leverage at this point. No serious GOP presidential hopeful would want Trump's ire.

Consider the case of DeSantis. Trump endorsed him in the 2018 Florida gubernatorial primary and viewed his subsequent 2024 presidential primary challenge as a betrayal.

On top of that, Trump’s political base began to distrust DeSantis after he jumped in the race against Trump, a sentiment that hasn’t subsided. Before the GOP Iowa caucus last year, Laura Loomer, one of Trump’s most vocal supporters, told DeSantis in the lobby of a hotel: “You killed your political career, and I hope you’re happy.”

The best way for putative candidates to stay on the right side of Trump is by going along with the notion that he might indeed run, a Trump political adviser said.

“I think anyone looking to 2028 is probably the first person to purchase one," said the adviser, referring to the "Trump 2028" hat, who was granted anonymity to share internal thinking.

Vance may be better positioned than most rivals as Trump floats the idea of a third term. He has a built-in platform as a sitting vice president, complete with the perks that the job brings.

At his disposal is a taxpayer-funded staff and airplane that he can use to build his foreign policy bona fides. It helps that his boss is a bit of a homebody and has eschewed extensive travel. This month, Vance met with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome to discuss tariffs. He had an audience with Pope Francis shortly before the pontiff's death.

With Trump controlling the Republican National Committee, Vance last month became the group’s finance chairman, allowing him to befriend well-heeled donors who can be helpful to a future campaign.

Vance has made no movements toward his own presidential run and has yet to seriously think about the idea, a source close to the vice president said.

When asked if he views himself as Trump’s successor, Vance insisted last month that his own White House bid was not an urgent priority but acknowledged the circumstances under which he’d become a strong candidate. He also suggested that any serious moves would come after the 2026 midterm elections.

“If I do really well for the next four years, everything else will take care of itself,” Vance said in an interview with NBC News. “Now, like, yeah, in two and a half years, will that become harder? Will people be more focused on politics than on what the White House is maybe doing that particular day? Maybe.”

Others can’t be as confident. DeSantis faces term limitations and will be out of office in 2027, so he won’t have the stage that the Florida governor’s office provides. Still, that might not dampen his ambitions.

“He absolutely believes he can still be president. While most on the outside looking in do not think he has viability, that’s just not how he thinks. It’s not how he views the world,” a longtime DeSantis ally said.

If Trump finds a way to run, though, his grip on the GOP is such that serious opposition may well evaporate.

The most direct way for Trump to circumvent the 22nd amendment is to change it. But that’s nearly an insurmountable obstacle in these polarized times, requiring three-quarters of the states to go along, for starters.

More fanciful ideas for overcoming the legal barrier involves a scenario in which Vance runs for president and picks Trump as his running mate. If they win, Vance then steps aside and Trump becomes president again.

Were Vance to go along with that, attention might turn from the 22nd Amendment to the 12th. That amendment states that no one who is ineligible under the Constitution to be president shall be eligible to serve as vice president.

So, the question then becomes, is Trump ineligible to be Vance’s running mate given that he’s barred under the 22nd Amendment from being elected to a third term? And, here, the answer may come down to a careful textual reading of the two amendments at issue.

An argument might be made that because the 22nd Amendment says only that Trump can’t be elected president a third time, that doesn’t mean he can’t be president if Vance were to resign and turn the job over to him.

Such a scenario, “is contrary to the intent of the amendments,” but is not “squarely foreclosed by the words,” said Kermit Roosevelt, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School (and the great, great grandson of former President Theodore Roosevelt).

Whether Vance would go along is a mystery. He has not publicly discussed the possibility, and spokespeople and advisers have declined requests to elaborate on what Vance is thinking about such a 2028 calculus.

In an interview with Trump on April 22, Time magazine asked his thoughts about a swap with his number two.

“I don’t know anything about, what, look, all I can say is this, I am being inundated with requests,” he said. “I’m doing a good job.”

While “there are some loopholes that have been discussed that are well known,” he said, “I don’t believe in loopholes. I don’t believe in using loopholes.”

Keeping the nation guessing, it turns out, is paying off. On Thursday, none other than the president’s second-oldest son, Eric Trump, posed for a picture on X, smiling and sporting a “Trump 2028” hat.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com