Trump's VP pick could put a Senate appointment in the hands of a MAGA foe

CLEVELAND — Two of former President Donald Trump’s prospective running mates come with politically fraught complications: the Republican governors who would choose their successors.

If Trump goes with Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis would be in line to select his replacement — perhaps immediately if Rubio resigns and relocates to avoid the constitutional hang-up of having both candidates on the ticket residing in the same state. If Sen. JD Vance of Ohio becomes vice president, Gov. Mike DeWine would pick a new senator.

Both governors have recent, fractious histories with Trump, raising doubts about whether the people they appoint would meet the often rigid right-wing standards of his MAGA movement. And while the succession dynamic will not necessarily sink Rubio’s or Vance’s chances of being selected, it is the subject of speculative conversation in both states.

DeSantis and Trump are coming off a bitter clash for the GOP presidential nomination. Though there are signs of détente, enough trust issues remain that the idea of handing DeSantis the power of a Senate appointment is one that Trump world is approaching cautiously.

“Trump does not want to give DeSantis that appointment,” a Trump confidant told NBC News. “It’s something being considered.”

In Ohio, Trump campaigned vigorously against DeWine’s endorsed candidate, state Sen. Matt Dolan, in a recent GOP Senate primary, branding DeWine as a crusty establishment avatar and RINO, or Republican in name only. Many believe Dolan, who lost the primary to Trump-endorsed Bernie Moreno, would be on DeWine’s shortlist to succeed Vance.

“I don’t think Gov. DeWine really is concerned about what President Trump’s thoughts are or what he thinks,” said former Rep. Jim Renacci, who lost a 2022 primary to DeWine and now chairs the Medina County Republican Party. “He’s in his last term. He doesn’t need the blessing of the former president.”

In both cases, a DeSantis or DeWine appointment would be on an interim basis, until the next statewide election is held.

But there might be a way to limit DeSantis' influence over the pick. The Trump confidant described a scenario in Florida, first reported by The Bulwark, in which Rubio would resign from the Senate immediately upon being tapped by Trump. The resignation would be early enough to trigger a special election for the seat. DeSantis would most likely get to appoint someone until the special election was held, but it would be for a limited time.

A Trump ally who has discussed vice presidential options directly with Trump said Rubio “has the biggest upside but is the biggest bank shot,” meaning that he checks many of the boxes Trump wants checked but that the potential pick would come with risks.

“Marco can talk MAGA in Spanish really well,” the person said.

Trump and DeSantis were seen as close after Trump backed DeSantis’ 2018 bid for governor. But their relationship exploded in a very public fashion after DeSantis decided to run against Trump for the 2024 presidential nomination. By the time DeSantis left the race in January, they were regularly attacking each other openly. And while DeSantis promptly endorsed Trump, he also raised concerns that Trump would prioritize “identity politics” in his search for a running mate.

The two recently had breakfast at a South Florida golf club to offer up a public perception that the hatchet has been buried, but Trump allies say there would still be huge skepticism toward the idea of handing DeSantis a Senate appointment.

A Senate vacancy could be a significant public gift for DeSantis. Among those he could consider for the appointment are his wife, Casey; his chief of staff, James Uthmeier; or former state House Speaker Jose Oliva, a longtime ally, according to three longtime Florida Republicans asked about a potential shortlist. DeSantis could also choose to appoint himself to the seat, these sources said.

In Ohio, Vance may have solidified himself as a top VP contender after having shepherded Trump’s endorsement of Moreno — a decision that yielded a big win for Trump in a competitive race. Moreno will face longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown this fall.

A Trump campaign staffer said the growing consensus among GOP operatives is that Vance is “a lock,” though this person left the door open for Trump to pick Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., or someone drawing less buzz.

Trump’s selection process has been closely guarded, with prospects having yet to receive detailed vetting questionnaires and Trump saying he does not expect to make a choice until closer to the Republican National Convention in July.

Choosing Scott would also put the decision about his successor in the hands of a GOP governor, but in that case one who is an unquestionable Trump ally: Henry McMaster of South Carolina. DeWine, himself a former senator, has had far more friction with Trump and his base.

DeWine’s lockdown orders and mask mandates during the early days of the Covid pandemic enraged voters on the right and led to primary challenges from Renacci and others. And in the closing days of this year’s Senate primary, DeWine issued a surprise endorsement of Dolan, whose comparatively moderate politics irked Trump.

David Helmick, a Republican leader in Mahoning County, said he would prefer Vance to stay in the Senate because his positions on U.S. trade policy closely align with those of working-class voters in the Youngstown area.

“If Bernie Moreno somehow ends up losing in November, I would want DeWine to appoint him to Vance’s seat,” Helmick said. “But DeWine will probably end up appointing Matt Dolan since he endorsed him in the primary.”

Others are not so sure.

Ryan Stubenrauch, an adviser and spokesperson on past DeWine campaigns, said he believes DeWine would seek a consensus candidate palatable to both old-guard Republicans and MAGA voters. While Dolan might have been DeWine’s preference of the choices available in the primary, he would have a larger universe to pick from if a Vice President Vance created a vacancy.

“I would say there’s less than a 50% chance that he would pick Dolan,” Stubenrauch said. “If it came to him, he’s no dummy. He’s been in politics for a long time, and so he understands the electorate, he understands people that don’t like him currently.”

Another Ohio GOP strategist, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, agreed.

DeWine “would want his pick to get re-elected, and there’s no way that the Trump wing of the party will accept” Dolan, the strategist said. “There are plenty of people both sides can agree on. It would be the dumbest move. And Mike DeWine is not dumb.”

Other potential appointees mentioned by Ohio Republican insiders include Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who finished third behind Moreno and Dolan in the March Senate primary; former state GOP chair Jane Timken; and former state Supreme Court Justice Judi French. DeWine also could choose to thin what is expected to be a crowded GOP primary field for governor in 2026 by selecting Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, Attorney General Dave Yost or Treasurer Robert Sprague, two GOP sources said.

Less likely is the possibility that DeWine, 77, could appoint himself as a “caretaker” senator who agrees not to run for the full term while giving Husted a chance to run for governor as an incumbent.

“A thousand percent no,” Stubenrauch said when he was asked about the likelihood of that scenario. “A hundred thousand percent no.”

Henry J. Gomez reported from Cleveland and Matt Dixon from Tallahassee, Florida.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com