Trump showcased his new dispute playbook by winning his clash with Colombia in just 12 hours

• Colombia objected to America's treatment of deportees but backed down within 12 hours.

• President Donald Trump threatened tariffs and sanctions after its ally rejected two deportation planes.

• The episode spoke to Trump's likely foreign-policy approach during his second term.

President Donald Trump won a clash with Colombia over his mass deportation program within 12 hours on Sunday. The saga revealed his likely playbook for handling disputes with other countries during his second term — and sent a clear warning not to get in his way.

War of words

The short-lived fracas began in earnest around 1:30 p.m. ET Sunday when Trump posted on Truth Social that the Colombian government had barred two US planes carrying Colombian deportees from landing because they were military instead of civilian planes.

Trump said the planes were carrying a "large number of illegal Criminals" and Colombian President Gustavo Petro's decision to turn them away had "jeopardized" US national security and public safety, warranting "urgent and decisive retaliatory measures."

The newly inaugurated president said he would impose tariffs of 25% on all imports from Colombia, rising to 50% after a week. He also announced a travel ban and visa sanctions aimed at government officials and their allies, and enhanced inspections of all Colombian nationals and cargo entering the US, among other measures. Trump said the raft of penalties was "just the beginning."

Petro initially fired back by saying his country would welcome Colombian deportees if they were treated with "dignity and respect" and transported on civilian planes instead of in handcuffs and leg shackles on military aircraft. He also said Colombia would retaliate with reciprocal tariffs as high as 50%.

However, the White House said late Sunday that the Colombian government had "agreed to all of President Trump's terms … without limitation or delay." Colombian government officials also confirmed the two sides had reached an agreement.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement that under Trump the US "will no longer be lied to nor taken advantage of," and the nation was fully committed to ending illegal immigration and strengthening border security.

Glimpse of the future

Deporting people living in the US illegally and striking fairer trade deals are two major planks of Trump's second-term agenda. The Colombia episode suggests he's willing to threaten other countries with tariffs and other sanctions if his deportation plans are obstructed.

"This 12-hour incident feels like a template for how the US will now deal with its foreign policy issues," Deutsche Bank researchers said in a note.

Colombia is one of America's closest allies in the Western Hemisphere, but it's heavily reliant on the US as an export market for products such as coffee and crude oil, giving Washington significant leverage in negotiations.

"All of the US's trading partners need to understand this new normal," Kathleen Brooks, research director of online broker XTB, told Business Insider. "Trump is willing to use tariffs to support his domestic policy agenda, so tariffs may be used as a weapon, regardless of the potential damage to the US economy."

The threat of tariffs could fuel global economic uncertainty, eroding investors' risk appetites and disrupting markets, Brooks added.

Michael Every, a global strategist at Rabobank, told BI that Trump was using tariffs in support of a grand strategy, and returning to the Monroe Doctrine — a historical policy under which the US dictates the terms of governance and commerce in the Americas, by military force if required.

"Expect much, much more it," Every said.

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