Trump wants the presidential winner to be declared on election night. That's highly unlikely

Former President Donald Trump is stepping up his demands that the winner of the presidential race be declared shortly after polls close Tuesday, well before all the votes are counted.

Trump set the pattern in 2020, when he declared that he had won during the early morning hours after Election Day. That led his allies to demand that officials “stop the count!” He and many other conservatives have spent the past four years falsely claiming that fraud cost him that election and bemoaning how long it takes to count ballots in the U.S.

But one of many reasons we are unlikely to know the winner quickly on election night is that Republican lawmakers in two key swing states have refused to change laws that delay the count. That will make it look as if Trump is initially leading, even if that changes as more ballots are tallied later. Another reason is that most indications are this will be a very close election, and it takes longer to determine who won close elections than blowouts.

In the end, election experts note, the priority in vote-counting is to make sure it's an accurate and secure tally, not to end the suspense moments after polls close.

“There's nothing nefarious about it,” said Rick Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. “The time delay is to protect the integrity of the process.”

Trump's demand also doesn't seem to account for the six time zones from the East Coast to Hawaii.

These claims have nothing to do with election integrity and all to do with making him president again, said David Becker, an elections expert and co-author of “The Big Truth,” debunking Trump’s 2020 election lies.

“When he’s behind, he’ll say continue the count. When he’s ahead, he’ll say stop the count," Becker said. "But that’s not how it works."

Becker said it’s not realistic for election officials in thousands of jurisdictions to “instantly snap their fingers and count 160 million multi-page ballots with dozens of races on them.”

Trump wants the race decided Tuesday night

During a Sunday rally in Pennsylvania, Trump demanded that the race be decided soon after some polls begin closing.

“They have to be decided by 9 o’clock, 10 o’clock, 11 o’clock on Tuesday night," Trump said. "Bunch of crooked people. These are crooked people.”

It was not clear who he was targeting with the “crooked people” remark.

Timing is one example of why Trump's demands don't match the reality of conducting elections in the U.S. By 11 p.m. Eastern time, polls will just be closing in the two Western swing states of Arizona and Nevada. It's a big country, and there's simply no way to know who won those states instantly.

Trump has led conservatives to bemoan that the U.S. doesn't count elections as swiftly as France or Argentina, where results for recent races have been announced within hours of polls closing. But that's because those countries tabulate only a single election at a time. The decentralized U.S. system prevents the federal government from controlling elections.

Instead, votes are counted in nearly 10,000 separate jurisdictions, each of which has its own races for the state legislature, city council, school boards and ballot measures to tabulate at the same time. That's why it takes longer for the U.S. to count votes.

Declaring a winner can take time

The Associated Press calls races when there is no possibility that the trailing candidate can make up the gap. Sometimes, if one candidate is significantly behind, a winner can be called quickly. But if the margin is narrow, then every last vote could matter. It takes a while before every vote is counted even in the most efficient jurisdictions in the country.

In 2018, for example, Republican Rick Scott won the U.S. Senate race in Florida, a state conservatives regularly praise for its quick tally. But the AP didn't call Scott's victory until after the conclusion of a recount on Nov. 20 because Scott's margin was so slim.

It also takes time to count every one of the millions of votes because election officials have to process disputed, or “provisional,” ballots, and to see if they were legitimately cast. Overseas ballots from military members or other U.S. citizens abroad can trickle in at the last minute. Mail ballots usually land early, but there's a lengthy process to make sure they're not cast fraudulently. If that process doesn't start before Election Day, it can back up the count.

Some states, such as Arizona, also give voters whose mail ballots were rejected because the signatures didn't match up to five days to prove they actually cast the ballot. That means final numbers simply cannot be available Tuesday night.

Election rules are to blame in some states

Some of the sluggishness is due to state-specific election rules. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two of the most important swing states, election officials for years have pleaded with Republican lawmakers to change the law that prevents them from processing their mail ballots before Election Day. That means mail ballots get tallied late, and frequently the results don't start to get reported until after Election Day.

Since Democrats dominate mail voting, that makes it seem like Republicans are in the lead there until the early hours of the next morning, when Democratic mail votes finally get added to the tally. Experts even have names for this — the “red mirage” or the “blue shift.” Trump exploited that dynamic in 2020 when he had his supporters demand an abrupt end to vote counts — the ballots that remained untallied were largely mail ones that were for Joe Biden.

Michigan used to have similar restrictions, but after Democrats won control of the state Legislature in 2022 they removed the prohibition on early processing of mail ballots. That state's Democratic Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, said she hopes to have most results available by Wednesday.

“At the end of the day, chief election officials are the folks who have the ability to provide those accurate results. Americans should focus on what they say and not what any specific candidate or folks who are part of the campaign say,” said Jen Easterly, director of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

Trump allies urge him to declare victory swiftly

Some of Trump's allies say he should be even more aggressive about declaring victory this time around.

Longtime Trump ally Steve Bannon, who in 2020 predicted the then-president would declare victory before the race was called, advocated for a similar strategy during a recent press conference after he was released from federal prison, where he was serving time for a contempt of Congress conviction related to the investigation into Trump's effort to overturn his loss in 2020.

“President Trump came up at 2:30 in the morning and talked," Bannon said. "He should have done it at 11 o'clock in 2020.”

Other Trump supporters have taken a darker tone. His former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, suggested during a recent interview on the right-wing American Truth Project podcast that violence could erupt in states still counting ballots the day after Election Day because people “are just not going to put up with it.”

Trying to project a sense of inevitability about a Trump win, the former president and his supporters have been touting early vote data and favorable polls to contend the election is all but over. Republicans have returned to voting early after largely staying away at Trump's direction in 2020 and 2022. In some swing states that track party registration, registered Republicans are outvoting Democrats in early voting.

But that doesn't mean Republicans are ahead in any meaningful sense. Early voting data does not tell you who will win an election because it only records who voted, not how they voted.

Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign has been explicitly targeting Republicans disillusioned by Trump. In each of those states where more Republicans have voted, there also are huge numbers of voters casting early ballots who are not registered with either of the two major political parties. If Harris won just a tiny fraction more of those votes than Trump, it would erase the small leads Republicans have.

There's only one way to find out who won the presidential election: Wait until enough votes are tallied, whenever that is.