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US election night guide: what to watch for

It may have felt like it would never happen, but the day is here. After months of anxiety-inducing uncertainty and a seemingly endless series of history-making events, the US presidential race will (finally) come to a close on Tuesday.

Americans – along with so many people around the world – will gather around their televisions and phone screens to learn who will be the next president of the United States: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.

Even though Harris and Trump have presented fundamentally different visions for the future of the US and its role on the global stage, the race has remained neck and neck since Joe Biden shocked the country by abandoning his re-election bid in July.

Results will start rolling in on Tuesday night, giving the nation its first clues about which party will control not just the White House, but Congress as well. Here is an hour-by-hour guide on how to watch election night like an expert:

6pm ET (3pm PT, 11pm GMT, 10am AEDT): polls start to close

The first polls will close in eastern Kentucky and much of Indiana at 6pm ET. Democrats’ expectations are low in the two Republican-leaning states: Trump is virtually guaranteed to win both, and Republicans are expected to easily hold most of the two states’ House seats as well.

7pm ET (4pm PT, midnight GMT, 11am AEDT): polls fully close in six states, including Georgia

Americans will get their first clues about the outcome of the presidential race at 7pm ET, when polls close in the battleground state of Georgia. Biden won Georgia by just 0.2 points in 2020, after Trump carried the state by 5 points four years earlier. This year, Trump appears to have a slight advantage over Harris in the Peach state, according to the Guardian’s polling tracker, but a strong night for Democrats could put Georgia in their win column again.

As Georgia starts to count its ballots, polls will also close in Virginia, where both parties hope to flip a House seat. Republicans are looking to expand their narrow majority in the House, and the results in Virginia’s second and seventh congressional districts could give an early indication of the party’s success.

And the early results out of Florida – where most, but not all, polls close at 7pm – could offer revealing hints as well. Florida is particularly efficient at counting ballots, so its early results will be one of the first big tests of the night. In addition to Harris’s long-shot hopes of flipping a state that Trump won twice, the Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is looking to unseat the Republican senator Rick Scott, who has maintained a polling advantage in the race. An upset win for Mucarsel-Powell in Florida could allow Democrats to maintain their Senate majority.

7.30pm ET (4.30pm PT, 12.30am GMT, 11.30am AEDT): polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia

Trump won North Carolina by 1 point in 2020 and 3 points in 2016, and a loss in this battleground state could doom the former president. Democrats also expect a victory in the North Carolina gubernatorial race, given the recent revelations about Republican Mark Robinson’s disturbing internet activity.

Meanwhile, the results in Ohio and West Virginia could decide control of the Senate. Republicans are expected to pick up a seat in West Virginia, where the independent senator Joe Manchin decided against seeking re-election; and the Democratic incumbent, Sherrod Brown, is facing a tough race in Ohio. If Republicans win both races, that would erase Democrats’ current 51-49 advantage in the Senate.

8pm ET (5pm PT, 1am GMT, 12pm AEDT): polls fully close in 16 states, including Pennsylvania

This will represent a pivotal moment in the presidential race. Whoever wins Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes is much more likely to win the White House, a fact that both nominees acknowledged as they blitzed the battleground state in recent weeks.

Pennsylvania will also host some of the nation’s most competitive congressional races. If it is a good night for Republicans, they could flip the seat of the incumbent Democratic senator Bob Casey, who is facing off against the former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick.

But if Democrats have an especially strong night, they may set their sights on Florida, where the final polls close at 8pm ET.

8.30pm ET (5.30pm PT, 1.30am GMT, 12.30pm AEDT): polls close in Arkansas

There won’t be much suspense in Arkansas, as Trump is expected to easily win the solidly Republican state. Arkansas does have the distinction of being the only state where polls will close at 8.30pm ET, but most Americans’ attention will be on the results trickling in from battleground states by this point in the night.

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9pm ET (6pm PT, 2am GMT, 1pm AEDT): polls fully close in 15 states, including Michigan and Wisconsin

This will be the do-or-die moment for Harris. In 2016, Trump’s ability to eke out narrow victories in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin sent him to the White House, but Biden won all three battlegrounds four years later.

Harris’s most likely path to 270 electoral votes runs through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin this year, so Trump could secure a second term if he can pick off even one of those states.

Michigan and Wisconsin will also play a potentially decisive role in the battle for Congress. Democrats currently hold two Senate seats in the states that are up for grabs this year, and Republican victories in either race could give them a majority. Michigan’s seventh congressional district, which became an open seat after Elissa Slotkin chose to run for the Senate rather than seek re-election, has been described as “the most competitive open seat in the country”.

In New York, where polls also close at 9pm ET, Democrats have the opportunity to flip several House seats that Republicans won in 2022. If they are successful, it could give Democrats a House majority. And after a much better than expected showing in the celebrated Selzer poll out of Iowa, Democrats hope to flip two House seats in the Hawkeye State, where polls will be closing as well.

10pm ET (7pm PT, 3am GMT, 2pm AEDT): polls fully close in Nevada, Montana and Utah

Harris hopes to keep Nevada in her column, as Democratic presidential candidates have won the state in every race since 2008. Trump previously led Nevada polls, but Harris has closed that gap in the final weeks of the race.

Another two Senate races will come to a close at this point in the night as well. In Nevada, the Democratic incumbent, Jacky Rosen, is favored to hold her seat, but her fellow Democratic senator Jon Tester’s prospects appear grim in Montana.

If Republicans have not already clinched a Senate majority by the time Montana’s polls close, this may be the moment when they officially capture control of the upper chamber.

11pm ET (8pm PT, 4am GMT, 3pm AEDT): polls fully close in four states, including California

While Harris is virtually guaranteed a victory in her home state of California, the state’s House races carry important implications for control of Congress. Five House Republicans face toss-up races in California, according to the Cook Political Report, so the state represents Democrats’ biggest opportunity to regain a majority in the chamber.

12am ET (9pm PT, 5am GMT, 4pm AEDT): polls close in Hawaii and most of Alaska

By the time polls close in Hawaii and most of Alaska, Americans should have a much better sense of who will be moving into the White House come January. But if 2020 is any indication, the nation may have to wait a bit longer to hear a final call on who won the presidential race.

In 2020, the AP did not declare Biden as the winner of the presidential election until 7 November at 11.26am ET – four days after the first polls closed. And in 2016, it took until 2.29am ET the morning after election day to declare Trump as the winner.

Given how close the race for the White House is expected to be, Americans might have to settle in for a long night – or even week – to learn who their next president is.

Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage: