US elections 2024: control of House hangs by thin margin as country votes

All 435 members of the US House of Representatives face re-election on Tuesday, with Republicans looking to expand their narrow majority after two chaotic years in power.

Control of the lower chamber appears to be a true toss-up, as Democrats only need to win five more seats than they did in 2022 to regain their majority. The country may have to wait days to learn who won the House, given that it took more than a week to make that call in 2022, but early results in battlegrounds like North Carolina’s first district and Virginia’s seventh district will give the first clues as to how Americans voted.

Without control of the House, the winner of the presidential race – whether it be Kamala Harris or Donald Trump – will face significant hurdles in implementing a legislative agenda. Election forecasts suggest either party could end up with a majority of just a few seats, which could recreate some of the problems of the 118th Congress.

In 2022, the “red wave” that Republicans had promised failed to materialize, leaving the party with a House majority of just four seats at the start of 2023. That tight margin allowed a small group of hard-right Republicans to wreak havoc on the speakership race, forcing Kevin McCarthy to endure 15 rounds of voting before capturing the gavel.

But just nine months later, McCarthy was ousted from the speaker’s chair following a revolt staged by eight members of his own conference. McCarthy’s removal kicked off weeks of chaos, with the House at a complete standstill until Mike Johnson, then a relatively unknown lawmaker, was elected to lead the chamber.

In recent months, Republicans have had to pitch themselves to voters for another two years in power after overseeing the most unproductive Congress in decades. Democrats have attempted to capitalize on Republicans’ legislative record as they look to rebuild a majority in the House, warning voters about the dangers of continuing the “dysfunction” in Congress.

“You’ve all seen it from day one, with 15 rounds of speaker elections [and] threats of shutdowns,” Congresswoman Suzan DelBene, chair of House Democrats’ campaign arm, told Axios in August. “Those are the things that drive people at home crazy.”

If Democrats can flip just a handful of Republican-held seats, Hakeem Jeffries, the current House minority leader, is expected to take over as speaker. But despite Republicans’ checkered legislative record, Johnson has voiced confidence that his party will maintain control of the House.

“I believe we’re going to keep and grow the House majority, win the Senate and win the White House as well, and we’re going to put Donald Trump back into office,” Johnson said in September.

Regardless of who wins a House majority, the new Congress will immediately face a highly consequential task when members are seated in January: certifying the results of the presidential election. In 2020, Trump supporters infamously attacked the Capitol in an unsuccessful effort to disrupt the congressional certification of Biden’s victory, and lawmakers have sparked concern about the possibility of similar political violence after election day.

Given Trump’s refusal to acknowledge his loss in the 2020 election, Democrats have voiced fears over how Johnson might handle a Harris victory. Johnson was one of 139 House Republicans who voted against certifying Biden’s victory after the January 6 attack and he has qualified his answer when asked if the chamber would follow regular order in certifying Harris’s potential win.

“If we have a free, fair and safe election, we’re going to follow the constitution,” Johnson told reporters in September. “Absolutely. Yes.”

In an ABC News interview last month, Johnson said, “Article II of the Constitution is very clear. Congress has a very specific role, and we must fulfill it.”

The results on Tuesday will determine who will have the opportunity to fulfill that role.