Voters who sat out 2020 weigh whether to jump in for Trump or Harris this time

A new focus group of voters who plan to cast ballots this fall — but didn’t participate in the 2020 presidential election — illustrates how both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are leaning on a core message to try to expand the electorate in a close race.

Among these voters, Harris gets a boost because they believe she would protect abortion rights, and some have broader hopes that electing the first female president could send a strong message to the country. But she’s weighed down by a number of important factors: a dim diagnosis of America’s economy, negative views about life during President Joe Biden’s administration and a lack of familiarity with her, which has bred ambivalence and distrust.

It’s different for Trump, one of the best-known political figures on the planet. Some of these voters believe his conduct during his time in office has disqualified him in their eyes, and even some of his supporters fear he’d focus more in a second term on fighting his enemies than on governing.

Still, a majority of the 12 participants in two sessions — part of the NBC News Deciders Focus Group, produced in collaboration with Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago — are leaning toward Trump for the oldest reason in politics: It’s the economy.

“I am getting older, and the economy is really starting to hit us hard, as well. Just in inflation and costs and the job market, all these things are actually starting to impact me and my family, so it’s definitely feeling like it’s more important this year,” said Ashley S., 34, of Clayton, North Carolina, who said she’s leaning toward Trump — but isn’t positive she’ll end up voting.

James B., 56, of Las Vegas, called the choice “simple.” He didn’t vote in 2020 because he was moving, but he plans to vote this year.

“My financial situation has declined repeatedly,” he said, adding that “it’s getting close to not being able to survive. I was better off when he was in as the president.”

Rich Thau, the president of Engagious, who moderated the sessions, said, “Most of these voters who sat out 2020 will vote for Trump this year because they believe he can make the 2025 economy look like the low-inflation 2019 economy.”

That’s borne out in NBC News’ national polls this year. Across the last three polls, Trump led Harris 50%-40% among those who were confirmed not to have voted in 2022 or 2020.

But notably, less than half of those poll respondents said they had high interest in the coming election, raising questions about how many of them will turn out to vote.

On the panels, all three of the voters leaning Harris’ way were women who, in part, said they connected with her on an emotional level.

“I just feel that she feels my struggle,” said Vitena A., 50, of Atlanta.

Sabrina W., 32, of Beulaville, North Carolina, said she’s leaning toward Harris because of policy proposals like a new credit for first-time homebuyers, saying it could make it easier for her to buy a home.

“She seems like a caring person,” Sabrina said. “I’m hopeful that, if she gets elected, she would be a really great example of a woman president.”

And Nicole R. 40, of Lewisville, North Carolina, said she’s voting for Harris because “women’s reproductive rights” is her top issue. She framed her vote as “less of a vote for her and more of a vote against Trump,” and she added that she never gave voting for Trump serious thought. She plans to vote this year, unlike in 2020, because “I have two young daughters, and I feel that there’s more at stake.”

Two focus group participants had recent changes of heart, including one that happened during the discussion.

One, Sharmen C., 36, of Atlanta, said her most important issue was reproductive rights. But while she said she was leaning toward Harris when she was screened to join the focus group, she described having had a change of heart in recent days because of her economic concerns.

“Now I’m leaning towards Trump simply because I see the way my life and my family’s situation has declined since the Biden-Harris administration, and [abortion rights] is only one stance of Harris’ that I care about. So I think Trump would be a stronger candidate,” she said.

“I think that my priorities are more in my home, my household, instead of what’s going on in general. It may be a selfish decision, but there’s other issues that I feel like she’s too liberal on,” Sharmen said.

Margaret Talev, the director of Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship in Washington, said, “One recurring theme among these voters was the idea that Vice President Harris either hasn’t demonstrated she can wield political power or that they believe other people won’t give a female president the same trust as a male president so that she inherently won’t be able to govern as well as Trump and that could impact national security or her ability to accomplish anything.”

Zaire H., 36, of Detroit, said she was leaning “more toward Harris” during the focus group, with fond memories of her economic situation during Trump’s administration outweighed by Harris’ support for reproductive rights.

But when she was asked how Trump’s pledge not to support a national abortion ban affects her vote, she replied: “Yeah, that’s good enough for me. Let’s go.”

“That would completely shift my vote,” she said. “I would be ready to vote for Trump,” adding that it wouldn’t bother her that women in other states wouldn’t have the same access to abortion she does, because “I don’t live in those states.”

Another issue for Harris lies in these voters’ perceptions of the Biden administration, compared with a relative nostalgia for the Trump years.

They used descriptions like “prosperous,” “OK” and “just normal” to describe life in America under Trump and words like “struggling,” “difficult” and “troubling” to describe life during the Biden administration.

But even among those who are leaning toward voting for him, there remain concerns about Trump's personality and how he'd lead the country.

"If he were to get elected, I would be afraid he would spend his whole term Twitter fighting and fighting in the courts rather than being president," said Kevin H., a 43-year-old from Alpharetta, Georgia, who is choosing between Trump and a third-party candidate.

After these voters sat out the highest-turnout election in modern history in 2020, there are still questions about whether they will actually decide to cast ballots this year.

Ashley S. said that while the “likelihood” she’d vote for Trump continues to increase, “it’s still just me getting out there to actually vote that’s the problem.”

And Sharmen C., who is undecided but has moved from leaning more toward Harris to toward Trump, estimated there was a 70% chance she’d vote but a 30% chance she wouldn’t. She’s caught between a fear of choosing the wrong candidate and the “guilt” she feels after having sat out 2020.

“There’s some fearmongering that I’ve fallen subject to. I’m really worried about the Project 2025 agenda, and I feel like if I don’t want to make the wrong decision, maybe I should sit it out — which is why I sat out that last election,” she said.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com